Everybody I know in Northern Ireland is relieved and quietly pleased to see the return of the Stormont Assembly with devolved government on 3 February 2024, the end of a 2-year protest by the DUP.
Should we celebrate?
Safeguarding the Union
Having led his party out of regional government in protest at the Brexit trade deal agreed between Westminster and the EU, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has now garnered plaudits for terminating the boycott. Particular praise has been awarded for his emotional calling out of threats including accusations of betrayal from hard-liners ironically described as "loyalists." In recommending the 80-page "Safeguarding the Union" deal between the Westminster government and the DUP (1), he emphasised the importance of "banking the gains" made by his party.
The question of gains and losses for other parties or for the community may or may not be ominous.
What the DUP has in mind includes a range of changes to the administration of trading checks and processes on goods traded between NI and GB. The deal includes the promise of £3.3 billion in financial support from the U.K government. This is presumably intended to make up for the prolonged interruption of regional government along with an allocation for pay increases to public sector staff whose living standards have fallen well below those of counterparts in GB.
As an early indication of their agreed priorities, both the First and Deputy First Ministers have been quick out of the blocks in calling for a significant increase in that financial support.
What the DUP presents as gains arising from their prolonged and exclusive negotiating sessions with Westminster might be described by some as catching up with our compatriots, or by others as insufficient to make up for ground lost and for pain suffered through delay and dithering.
One knight of the realm's gains might alternatively read as coming at the expense of financial loss and economic pain for working people. Remember that many of the latter are the same groups who were applauded, not least by politicians, for heroism in getting the region through the pandemic of Covid19.
Overwhelmingly, the general public welcomes the return of regional democracy, hesitant perhaps to heap unequivocal, if any, praise on those who have aped the same tactic they condemned when used previously by Sinn Féin to deprive the region of its institutions. Many dispute the DUP leader's recent assertion to striking trade unionists that his boycott has had a mandate. Questions arise such as
- Who exactly voted for the paralysis of our Assembly?
- How has the Assembly's suspension benefitted democracy?
- What economic gains have the shut-down delivered for the regional economy over the last 24 months?
- What about the damage done to the National Health Service where Northern Ireland has the longest waiting-lists in the U.K., never mind the NHS's other festering problems (2)? And
- what about the reputational damage done across the UK to the image of a region whose biggest pro-union party's absence has, ironically, prompted questions about the region's viability as a self-governing political unit?
The very title of the agreed deal "belies an underlying fear over the vulnerability of that union," as one commentator puts it (3). The DUP's insistance at different times during the void that action was possible to address problems because regional Ministers were still in place, or at other times that problems can be settled by Westminster - these claims were and are specious. A party, whose primary titular adjective flaunts democratic credentials proudly and yet ignores its own masthead unapologetically consigned its entire electorate into painful oblivion for 730 long days.
As a protest over the terms of the UK's exit from the EU the boycotting party ignored the actual mandate of Northern Ireland which, by a clear majority, had voted to remain part of the Union with Europe. In the aftermath of Brexit referendum, the DUP's then party leader acknowledged that she knew, with four of the region's five parties campaigning against Brexit, that Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the EU.
Yet the party has persisted in abandoning the lifelong unionist mantra of adhering to majority rule. They furthermore ignored the self-professed and principal characteristic of traditional unionism - loyalty - by refusing to accept the decision of the Mother of Parliament's parliamentary decision to sign up to the trade deal with the EU.
The boycott of Stormont has damaged trust in the party and in the political process of democratic accountability in Northern Ireland. The party leader's recent announcement of receiving his party's authority to return to Stormont, welcome as it is, lacked acknowledgement or apology for damage inflicted to our hard-won regional democracy, to a faltering economy, to the fragile peace process, and to our reputation.
Brexit was always regarded by the majority, the pro-EU advocates here, as a threat to economic prosperity and to trade, based on empirical evidence. Withdrawal from the EU was also seen as an undermining of the peace process because of its detrimental implications for Britain's land border with Ireland.
Potential ending commitment to all-island economy
On which subject, concerns have been raised discreetly about Safeguarding the Union's paragraphs 114 to 116 in the new command paper. In particular, provisions for ending all British Government commitment to protect the all-island economy in Ireland as agreed with the EU in the 2018 Brexit Withdrawal Act may constitute a unilateral resiling by Westminster from that Act. If the UK legislates accordingly, Northern Ireland could forfeit its unique trading position with access both to the UK and EU markets for goods. The eyes of the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lit up brightly when he himself emphasised this as a major benefit a year ago .
One wonders sotto voce, without sounding alarm bells over potential hazards, about the status of a Westminster-DUP deal whose full details may not have been fully agreed with other interests.
More Westminster finance plea
Perhaps the DUP leader's oversights in acknowledging the damage inflicted by the boycott might yet be addressed by him soon, or by his successor. It could be regarded as politic to do so early, to treat it as a priority. Such acknowledgement of the damage caused and its recognition as a problem to be addressed would be a creditable starting point to ensure that action is taken. It might also bolster his (and the First and Deputy First Ministers') case to plead for even more cash from the Westminster exchequer.
Members of the Assembly must be aware of the broadly positive reaction from across the community to news of their return to work and hopes for a successful outcome. If they can capitalise on that wellspring of support and work together, Stormont will be better-placed to exploit the trading benefits of dual market access (4), to tackle other big issues of the economy (5), the climate and nature (6), the arts and education, the health service, community relations, migration and more - but from a stronger base.
© Michael McSorley 2024
References:-
1. HM Government 31 January 2024 Command Paper 1021, Safeguarding the Union https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65ba3b7bee7d490013984a59/Command_Paper__1_.pdf
2. The National Health Service 30 November 2023 https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-nhs.html
3. Northern Ireland reaches a turning point with volatile politics set to play out on a new pitch. Freya McClements The Irish Times 3 February 2024 p5
4. BBC Northern Ireland John Campbell 8 Feb 2024 Irish trade to GB now subject to post-Brexit rules. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cldqzk3pey6o
5. BBC Northern Ireland John Campbell 8 Feb 2024 NI economy: Forecasted growth in 2024 less than 1%. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68233998
6. BBC Northern Ireland Louise Cullen 7 Feb 2024 Solving Lough Neagh problems high on agenda - Muir. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68228276
This Brexit series consists of the following 21 articles to date:-
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
The business of politics 11 May 2022
An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022
Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022
The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023
State of the Nation 14 Oct 2023
