Background
Asked why he was not standing to be leader of the Conservative Party to replace the deposed Boris Johnson, the then bookies favourite and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace replied with this line. The Conservative Party is brimful of talent.
What? Americans have a better phrase - excuse me?
Fast forward from early July to late October as another Conservative MP, Charles Walker, changed the tune, lamenting in exasperation (1). "I've had enough of talentless people."
The MP's comments came in the wake of his new Government's evidence-free mini-budget, financial markets revolting, and the resignation of Suella Braverman, the U.K's shortest serving Home Secretary since World War 2.
Twenty-four chaotic hours later and Boris Johnson's successor as PM Liz Truss followed suit announcing her resignation. This was after being elected by the party membership and a brief 44 days in office. Her widely expected departure set a record for the shortest term ever served by a PM in U.K. history. And now the Conservative Party is set to crown a candidate it rejected last month, Rishi Sunak. He will become the U.K's third Prime Minister this year. That is also probably some kind of a record.
- Is Parliamentary democracy in safe hands in the U.K. at a worrying time on the world stage?
- Does Westminster deserve to retain its self-styled title as the "Mother of Parliaments?"
- Could the U.K. without a written Constitution be heading towards a Constitutional crisis?
- What about the impact of the economic woes on the cohesion of "the precious union?"
- What can be done to halt the slide in the national economy?
- Is the Conservative Party the friend and ally of business - and vice versa?
Regardless of political parties, what have Britain's public policies of recent times been doing for the nation's reputation both domestically and globally?
Terms like "Laughing stock" "Death Spiral" and "Soap Opera" are among the more printable of those expressed by politicians in the U.K.
Another was "Beyond Parody." Oh no it's not - so here goes.
Where has it all gone wrong?
Following the election of her discredited predecessor Boris Johnson what does another flawed premiership, that of Liz Truss, say about the judgement of the Conservative Party's members and MPs? Her selection process exceeded her time as PM. Can a political party be trusted anymore with the task of picking the PM for "the world's fifth biggest economy?"
Boris Johnson resigned on 7 July following scandals including "Partygate" and that of Chris Pincher MP. And not forgetting the slew of resignations of more than 50 Government Ministers and advisors from his team. Allegations of his misleading of Parliament remain a subject for a House of Commons Privileges Committee Inquiry. And yet it took two months of tortuous scrutiny and hustings for the same Conservatives to whittle down the 8 candidates before selecting Liz Truss as their best leader with Mr Sunak deemed rude and second rate.
Impacts
One impact of the protracted interregnum (excluding the passing of Queen Elizabeth) between the Johnson and Truss premierships was that no initiative was taken in July or August to address the growing clamour for action over price inflation in gas, electricity and food.
Another was that the Conservative government exposed the fallacy of its mantra about "independent" Britain taking back control. In addition, prolonged rounds of electioneering and the markets' turbulent reactions to the new régime's economic plans distracted the Government from task of governing in key sectors such as the health service, climate, the north-south divide and national security.
Liz Truss made economic growth her top priority without consulting the Office for Budget Responsibility or the Bank of England. It took Mark Carney, previously the Bank's Governor (2013-2020), to point out the serious consequences of "undercutting" the nation's economic institutions (2).
The world looked on in disbelief as Britain presented unfunded tax-cutting at a time of inflation and soaring national debt; dictated by a new PM introducing policy with no evidential basis and doing so precipitately. That act replicated the Brexit tactic of making policy dismissive of facts.
Brexit
Following the resignation of her Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwartang and his replacement by Jeremy Hunt, the economist Nouriel Roubini (3) listed the global threats as well as "self-inflicted" problems that beset the U.K's economy. Top among the latter issues in his analysis was Brexit which, he argues, has reduced economic growth and raised the costs of production.
One asks - how would growth not be affected by the turning of the U.K's back on its largest trading partner?
Mr Carney has more recently spoken about Brexit's economic impact. He says that in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany's; now, he adds, it is less than 70% (4). Liz Truss and her backers - take note, even from the sidelines.
Brexit, he added, was treated by the Bank of England as a "supply shock to the U.K's trade access, to labour supply - growth slows, inflation goes up, the pound falls - ultimately we will end up in a worse place." From this advice, one deduces that it's little wonder why the markets were so spooked by the "mini-budget" and the spectre of a return to supply-side economics.
Britain's current account national deficit is 8% of GDP, which necessitates more borrowing and austerity to maintain living standards (5). Professor McWilliams's (6) analysis traces the current policy to the 1980's when London "morphed" from being a provider of capital to brilliant engineers into "the financialisation of the entire economy" featuring venture capitalism, asset-stripping and short-term speculating.
One consequence which he notes is that the European norm of a 3-times gap in earnings between top and bottom earners is a 6-times gap in the U.K. He concludes by stating that current levels of inequality in the U.K. are inconsistent with democracy such that it needs an entirely new economic and political model.
Economists also remind us that economic growth comes from capital investment and from innovation. The punishing rise in interest rates, unseen by the tax-lowering of "Trussonomics," not only disrupts family lives by making mortgages more expensive. For hard-pressed taxpayers it also drives up the cost to the U.K.'s economy of servicing its soaring burden of national debt.
The future
What sort of a legacy is Westminster handing down to the upcoming generation? Britain's citizens - including our grandchildren - deserve better treatment.
©Michael McSorley 2022
References:-
1. BBC TV News 19 Oct 2022 "I've had enough of talentless people"
2. The Guardian 29 Sept 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/mark-carney-accuses-truss-government-of-undermining-bank-of-england-governor-financial-crisis-pound
3. Channel 4 News 19 Oct 2022 https://www.channel4.com/news/nouriel-roubini-on-the-dangerous-economic-trends-putting-the-future-at-risk
4. Financial Times 14 Oct 2022 Edward Luce "Doubling down on inequality was a surprising choice" https://www.ft.com/content/f1f0a66a-fa2c-4d70-9874-8003bdb3fb53
5. Irish Times 22 October 2022 David McWilliams "It is tragic how far the UK has fallen - and hard to see how it will get back up"
6. http://davidmcwilliams.ie/about-3/
This series consists of the following 19 articles to date
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
The business of politics 11 May 2022
An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022
Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022
