The NHS

Background

It's sad to see the cherished institution which is the U.K's National Health Service reported so regularly in the news for all the wrong reasons.

At the same time its crucial role in supporting the U.K.'s economy has never been more apparent and newsworthy.  At the moment there are regular headline-grabbing accounts of disagreements between scientists, Ministers and ex-Ministers over health policy at the Public Inquiry into the Government's handling of the Covid pandemic.  

And then there is the big debate about all sorts of related national issues (1) including record waiting lists reaching 7.5 million this summer and about so many NHS staffing posts being unfilled.  And as an indication of how serious the waiting is in Northern Ireland, it is reported (2) that in November 2023 there are almost 429,000 of its people waiting for a first hospital appointment as an outpatient, with over 83% waiting for more than nine weeks.    

Set against these issues, the daily frustrations of citizens queuing to get an ordinary appointment with a GP, important as they are, seem like a low priority.

The organisation's well-documented problems along with issues of understaffing and under-funding take on an extra layer of seriousness in Northern Ireland where there is no regional Government operating to monitor the health of its economy and its citizens.  One party's protest about a Brexit deal, which most people and the four other parties rejected at referendum, works against the express will of the people, against the public interest and to the detriment of the region's reputation and well-being.  

Older issues have become more critical and new ones are not addressed as political responsibility is abrogated.  Take these examples.

Neurological failure

In 2018, the National Health Service witnessed Northern Ireland's largest recall of patients. More than 5,000 patients whom the consutant neurologist, Michael Watt, had treated for stroke, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis were recalled.  The chairman of an independent inquiry concluded in June 2022 that the governing Health Trust's "failures ensure that patterns of the consultant's work were missed for a decade."  

Indictment is another word.  Following a medical tribunal's finding that his professional performance was "unacceptable,"  Mr Watt was finally "struck off" in November 2023.  

The process continues its weary way.  Reports (3) that the police are opening an investigation into his clinical practices form the latest highlighting of a bad news story for our beleagured National Health Service.

Women's health - cervical smear testing

Another example involves women's health and reveals substantially more recalls than Mr Watt's case necessitated.  Some 17,000 women are being recalled for review of cervical screening smear tests following an investigation into their "accuracy" at a Northern Ireland Health Trust.  Apparently, there were concerns about "persistent underperformance" of some screeners over 13 years.  An Inquiry by the Royal College of Pathologists concluded that the women are "at risk of missed opportunities to detect and treat precancerous changes."

In mid-November 2023 the Trust opened clinics for repeat smear tests for those whose previous slide is either unavailable or had taken place more than 10 years ago.  It seems that repeat smear tests cannot be offered to all 17,000 patients "due to capacity issues in the U.K. (4)."  Coincidentally, on the same day the recall clinic started, it was announced that Ireland is on target to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040.

Dr Gabriel Scally, Professor of Public Health at Bristol University (and born in Belfast) has commented on the stark differences in approach to women's health between the two national governments.  He says that this latest NHS scandal is symptomatic of a dysfunctional health system where women are being "failed" by a "completely out-of-date" screening service. 

Unlike in Great Britain and Ireland where there is primary HPV (human papilloma-virus) screening, Northern Ireland uses a slower cytology-based system with slides being examined under microscope; and thousands of patients are subsequently backlogged facing six-month delays for a smear test result.  Dr Scally describes the HPV test as very accurate in picking up the HPV that causes cervical cancer.

Abuse of vulnerable adults 

The third example relates to the long-standing tale of alleged abuse of patients at Muckamore Abbey Hospital in County Antrim.  A Public Inquiry into the abuse was established back in 2005, with hearings still continuing in November 2023.  The Inquiry website states that "it wishes to hear from current or former staff or from a former patient, relative, carer or a member of the public who has information that will assist the inquiry."  

The last report (5) which I read about the Muckamore Abbey Hospital case says that more than 70 staff have been suspended and dozens arrested at the facility - which treats people with severe learning difficulties and mental health issues.  A separate police investigation into the abuse of vulnerable adults is also underway.  

As the man says, you couldn't make this stuff up.  These are very upsetting stories, to say the least. And in all of these examples, one party is disabling Stormont from taking part, with Westminster seemingly unable or unwilling to break the deadlock.

England

Nothern Ireland's NHS is not alone in having to face up to serious problems.

BBC2's Newsnight has reported last year (2022) about allegations of mistakes and a "Mafia-like" culture at England's busiest Health Trust in Birmingham.  The programme now reports (6) that its investigation led to the launch of 3 Inquiries and the subsequent implementation of changes at that Trust.  

Now in November 2023, the programme's NHS investigations unit  has uncovered very similar allegations being levelled at the Royal Sussex County Hospitals.  Staff have claimed that unheeded warnings and the existence of a toxic culture of cover-up led to numerous unnecessary deaths and maiming of patients.  Police are now investigating. Sounds familiar.

New RCN Book

I conclude on a positive note.  

A magnificent tribute to our nurses has just been published by the Royal College of Nursing Northern Ireland (7).  A lavish new book entitled "Nurses' Voices from the Second World War The Ireland Connection" tells the stories of nurses from both jurisdictions across Ireland "who were willing to put their lives at risk caring for their patients on the home front and on overseas front lines."  

 

This largely undiscovered (until now) and exhaustively-researched story reveals the harrowing background events where many nurses died in tragic circumstances at sea and even as prisoners of war.  

It puts everything else, not least our contemporary concerns about the state of the world, in perspective.  And it provides a salutory reminder - maybe one is needed - as to a big part of the rationale for establishing a National Health Service after violent and senseless global conflicts.

 

© Michael McSorley 2023

 

References

1.  https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2023/10/state-of-nation.html

2. BBC News 30 November 2023 Marie-Louise Connolly "Waiting lists: Woman waited for three years for telephone consultation"

3. BBC News 28 November 2023 "Michael Watt: Police to investigate former neurologist" 

4. Irish Times 25 November 2023 "Shortcomings of cervical screening in the North revealed by review of smear tests" Seanin Graham

5. Belfast Telegraph 7 September 2023 "Muckamore Abbey abuse inquiry unlawfully requested medical records without notifying patients, court hears"

6.  Alan Erwin BBC2 Newsnight 29 November 2023

7. "Voices from the Second World War The Ireland Connection." Researched by the RCN History of Nursing  Network, collated by Margaret Graham and Seán Graffin. Proceeds to charity

State of the Nation

The London editor of a national newspaper has penned a widely-referenced article (1) pondering the state of the nation, covering all of the current issues of the day.  His thorough piece is all about the worries gripping the people of the UK at present.  

It resonates not only because of the compelling evidence presented but also because the Prime Minister's simultaneous decision in September to postpone the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars had prompted my article about u-turns in the Government's policies (2).

Given the gravity of the journalist's analysis, his article presents key findings which, being buried on page 14 of his newspaper, deserve a wider audience.  The London correspondent interprets the PM's action as his way - using his own carefully-crafted words - 

    "to capture a sense of diclinism that lately has wrapped itself around Britain like a wet heavy         blanket."  

He quotes Mr Sunak's own similarly gloom-laden line that

     "Britain has stumbled into a consensus about the future of our country that nobody seems          happy with."

Those words come across as a sorry epitaph on 13 years of Government.  So, what exactly is gnawing at the heart of Britain?  The evidence offered by the journalist to support the PM's case includes the following facts and figures:- 

• the U.K's post-Brexit stasis is evident from "anaemic" economic growth and because of national debt at its highest level for 60 years; 
• living standards are in the middle of their biggest two-year fall since the 1950's because of inflation; 
• infrastructure is creaking; 
• industrial relations are sour; 
• national morale is low after years of "political psychodrama;" 
• Britain's NHS is "a national embarrassment, festooned with strikes, escalating waiting times and a balooning bill that could swamp its public finances;" and 
• the country's ill-at-ease sense plays out in culture-war debates on issues ranging from trans rights to climate change.

On the positive side and presumably for the sake of balanced reporting, he reminds us that 

• Britain remains the world's sixth biggest economy meaning that a bounceback may be possible from the "flagging productivity" that is hindering growth; 
• it is "a bastion of Parliamentary democracy" with multi-ethnic front benches; 
• Britain has led backing for Ukraine against Russian invasion; and 
• despite Brexit strife, relations with Europe have improved. 

On the negative side, he quotes 

• Prof Anand Menon of Kings College London who dismisses (at length and emphatically) the domestic view about Britain being world-beaters; and he quotes 
• Prof Tim Bale, Queen Mary University of London who argues that the Conservative Party has lost its place as a stable centre-right force, exemplified by the PM's "pivoting Britain away from ambitious climate change strategy," and that "our governing politics have gone off the scale."

The article quantifies the nation's problems with statistical economic data, for example, to illustrate that 

• the economy is the top issue at 37% of those polled by Ipsos in September, more than twice as many who mentioned climate. High inflation/cost of living came second at 30%, ahead of the NHS and immigration
  
• the U.K's record national debt, £2.5 trillion has recently topped 100% of the size of the economy, its GDP, for the first time since the 1960's.  The national interest bill of more than £100 billion has doubled in a year
• he quotes the British economist Gerard Lyons who says that Britain is in "a debt trap" where interest rates (5.25%) exceed growth rates (barely 0.5%) - "something has to give"
  
• the Centre for Policy Studies say the cost of an ageing population will be more problematic.  ONS data, for example, predict a rise in England from 18.2% to 20.7% in over-65's in the decade to 2028
• NHS waiting lists grew to a record 7.3 million this summer, at a time when 150,000 NHS posts remain unfilled.  Boosting immigration, however, to provide NHS employees runs counter to the net legal migration target of 600,000.  Yet, as the article demonstrates, Britain's net migration figures have doubled since before Brexit.

The article's exposition of the actual scale of the U.K's national debt run up by a Government in power since 2010 is not, one suspects, widely known and appreciated.   The same goes for the gravity of difficulties faced by the NHS, including enormous and growing waiting lists as well as recruitment problems.  

 

The article doesn't have time or space to mention the economic and other problems faced by constituent parts of the union.  Because of a lengthy protest by the DUP against Westminster's EU Brexit deal, Northern Ireland has no devolved administration in place to address problems which have arisen or have become more complex since (or possibly because of) the sacking of the Stormont Assembly.   These include a worrying range of urgent economic, environmental, policing, health service, labour relations, drugs, constitutional and other issues.  The latter include the parlous state of the region's budget and finances.  Responsibility is being abrogated.

Whatever shade of autumnal gloom PM Sunak has identified as prevalent in GB requiring him to turn policies around at will, the mood is darker and more severe across the Irish Sea.  The repeated absence of devolved government raises questions about the very viability of the region as a political unit; and in the context of serious conflicts abroad, it also piles untimely pressure on the fragility of Northern Ireland's hard-won peace process. 

If the PM is correct and electorates in Scotland England and Wales are disenchanted with the state of the nation's economics and politics following Brexit (3), one's inclinations suggest that those same feelings are magnified somewhat in Northern Ireland. 

© Michael McSorley 2023

References

1. "What's eating Britain? The issues gripping its soul" Mark Paul London Correspondent The Irish Times 7 October 2023

2. "Electric cars and climate change" 30 September 2023 https://michaelmcsorleynature.blogspot.com/2023/09/electric-cars-and-climate-change.html

3. This series consists of the following 20 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022 

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022 

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023

Will the Windsor Framework get Brexit done?

Decision time

Getting Brexit Done has proved to be an elusive quest, now two years on from that spurious claim - and counting.

So, on 27 February in a display of carefully-planned choreography, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen co-presented the Windsor Framework.  Described by the PM as "a decisive breakthough" this is the UK/EU deal "to replace" Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol. 

"Ditch," for the record, has always been the alternative verb of action demanded by the protocol's outspoken vilifiers. 

Apart from resolving the protocol's complications, some will say flaws, the PM's wider agenda is "to reset relations with Europe" avoiding potential for a trade war.  He hopes also that doing so will let Britain adjust to the exit by resuming collaboration with Europe.  This would include Brexit's fallout casualties such as scientific research.  The big prize would be the restoration of regional government at Stormont.

For added appeal the announcement was endorsed by the monarch when the EC President had tea with King Charles III and a warm welcome to Windsor Castle.  Criticism, paradoxically from prominent DUP leaders, greeted the happening of that meeting.  

Undeterred and to drive home the charm offensive, on 26 March "the Majesties" will begin a 6-day visit to France and Germany to attempt to strengthen the UK's relations with Europe post-Brexit (1).  Its economic rationale appears well-grounded given the limited impact of Britain in securing trade deals across the globe post-Brexit.

Forty-eight hours before the framework's launch, the journalist and former Conservative MP Matthew Parris supplied guidelines, like a list of home truths, to support the PM.  His article exhorted Mr Sunak to be "bold," to exploit his advantage "that no Conservative MP wants an election." Parris's argument (2) included this array:- 

• the ERG (European Research Group of Conservative MPs) and the DUP both know that even in Northern Ireland wrecking the Protocol is unpopular; 
• the DUP have almost no support over the water and little support in the Commons; 
• they know they are widely disliked; 
• they know their suspension of power-sharing is hurting their own voters; and
  
• they know that playing the wrecking card could only bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether.

The day after after announcing the Framework, the PM visited Northern Ireland to promote the new plan.  Speaking to factory staff in the DUP leader's constituency, Mr Sunak enthused about Northern Ireland's unique benefits of having access both to the UK's internal market as well as to that of the EU.  Brexiteer eyebrows were raised as the PM, himself a Brexiteer, described Northern Ireland as being in "the world's most exciting economic zone."  

Let's reflect on the events that have preceeded the Windsor Framework.

Post-Brexit talks

Following the UK's June 2016 referendum, the first of the two phases of exit negotiations culminated in October 2019 with the Withdrawal Agreement.  It included no hard border in Ireland and protection of the Good Friday Agreement (3).  The second phase concluded on a significant date in British history.  24 December 2020 marks the announcement of the country's divorce from the EU with the proud PM Johnson proclaiming it as “a good deal for the whole of Europe.” 

The signing up to detailed arrangements, named the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (4) took place on 30 December 2020.  That means that It took four and a half years following the referendum before the UK PM was in a position to sign the final deal.  At last Brexit had its painstakingly-negotiated agreement in the form of a hefty 1246-page document.   

By the by, European nations which did not ever seek a UK exit, as well as British places like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted with majorities against Brexit might dispute the PM's good deal for all of Europe assertion.  For voters in Northern Ireland, for instance, who wanted to remain in the EU the only rationale for the protocol was and is the form of Brexit sought and agreed by the Conservative Government with DUP support; had Brexit not been mandated by Great Britain, there would have been no Brexit and no protocol.  

Whereas the protocol continues to be an existential bane for many, it is not so for many other Northern Ireland's voters.  If, however, the PM gets his way and the Windsor Framework is approved by Parliament, the new arrangement will continue Northern Ireland's mandate by retaining barrier-free access to the EU market for goods.

BrexitTrade deal

A maxim during the prolonged negotiation process repeated that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."  PM Johnson's claims to have got Brexit done as 2020 turned into 2021 started to unravel very soon after he signed the papers.  Heated rows began about the checking of goods coming from GB into Northern Ireland and the agreed trading arrangements across the century-old constitutional border between the UK and the EU in Ireland.  

One has wondered for over two years about the implication that may apply should agreement on the protocol and its implementation fail; and whether or not the EU/UK Brexit deal on trade could collapse as nothing will have been agreed, in theory at least, following the negotiating maxim.   In which case UK/EU relations would not be able to be reset.

The UK acceptance of the EU compromise to allow Northern Ireland continued access to its market for goods had also been accepted by the then DUP leader as giving Northern Ireland the best of both worlds. 

In the meantime, to reduce the reliance on using the UK as a landbridge for EU goods in transit to and from Ireland, substantial additional provision for direct EU connections between Irish French and Spanish ports was prioritised.  In addition, the EU extended grace periods to allow the UK time to implement arrangements for checking goods in transit within Northern Ireland.  

Reaction to protocol

Since January 2021 when it started operating, 2 years and 2 months ago, reaction has been both positive and negative.  Without dwelling on distressing scenes of street violence in Belfast in its early days, political criticism of the protocol emerged at the beginning of that year both from the Conservative Party's ERG and from the DUP.   In essence, these contended that it imposes a "border in the Irish Sea," that it separates Northern Ireland from Great Britain, that it involves jurisdiction by the European Court of Justice and that it has had ruinous impacts on Northern Ireland's economy.  

To emphasise their opposition, the DUP suspended Northern Ireland's regional assembly a full year later in early 2022.  Critics of that move query the impact of suspension itself on Northern Ireland's image and its economy.

Most of the running in the debate has been made by advocates of the protocol's threats to trade and sovereignty.  Given the continuing focus of the UK Government on the prospective conclusions of the ERG and DUP to the Windsor Framework, it is important to consider both sides of the case.

Benefits

A range of organisations including business and research bodies have cited statistical data as evidence of benefits accruing to Northern Ireland's economy from its access to the EU market.  The following examples are from 2022.

In May, the apolitical London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported that the trade protocol helps growth and profitability in Northern Ireland because of its advantageous barrier-free exports to the entire 27-nation EU market (5).  NIESR's quarterly report on the UK's economy concluded that Northern Ireland's economic output "has slightly outperformed the UK average."

Agriculture is relatively a more important to the economy in Northern Ireland than it is in Great Britain.  Last June, the head of Northern Ireland's Dairy Council Dr Mike Johnston stated that the protocol is working for his sector allowing trade flows to continue (6).  He added the message - "do not do anything that will in any way interefere with the current working." 

Last July a report from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Dublin presented data on soaring trade for Northern Ireland post-protocol (7).  Its figures indicate that the value of goods from Northern Ireland into the Republic rose by 23% between January and May 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.  The increase was worth £303million bringing the total flow to £1.6billion. 

The CSO figure was higher for goods from the Republic into Northern Ireland with an increase of 42% bringing total trade to a value of £1.8billion. This represents a rise of £497million on the same period in 2021.  The report showed that GB imports into the Republic rose by £1.7billion compared to May 2021, while Irish exports to GB were £1.2billion.

In August, a further CSO report presented January to June 2022 datasets (8).  Imports for that 6-month period from Northern Ireland into the Republic grew from €413million to €2.3billion compared with 2021; and exports to Northern Ireland from the Republic in the same 6-month period in 2022 grew by €662million to €2.4billion when compared with 2021.  These are big numbers indicating substantial economic growth in the Northern Ireland economy.

In terms resonant with the PM Sunak's speech to workers in Lisburn eight months later, the Conservative Brexiteer and founder of Ballymena-based pharmaceuticals company CIGA Healthcare spoke last July about how the protocol could transform Northern Ireland into "the Singapore of Europe. (9)"  Irwin Armstrong's company exports to over 70 countries.  

Since the protocol began, CIGA has been "expanding very rapidly."  Sales to the Republic have doubled; in June he signed a €4.7million contract for new markets in Europe and the Middle East.  Wearing his political hat Mr Armstrong added - " if we get the economic situation in Northern Ireland sorted out people will not vote for a united Ireland if they are being offered a much better deal here."  Could this be a message for the ERG and for the DUP?

In August the American business news channel CNBC dug into the July CSO datasets about the surge in trade by consulting some Northern Ireland business chiefs (10).  Stephen Kelly CEO of Manufacturing NI explained that: "Irish buyers moved away from GB suppliers continuing their trade with the UK by buying from Belfast rather than from Birmingham."  This sounds like Conservative Party free markets philosophy and the market process of import substitution.   

CNBC also quote Ian Chambers, CEO of Chambers Ireland.  He said that there are no ports lying idle, no road idle,"trade is happening and in large numbers."   CNBC reported on the rapid increase since 2021 of cargo ships leaving Dublin and Rosslare ports for France and Spain "to avoid the red tape of crossing through Britain."  The channel also notes benefits for Belfast port whose "operating profits for 2021 rose by 13% to £34million and 25million shipping metric tons of cargo."

A contrasting report from August presents evidence of the detrimental impact of Brexit on GB where trade barriers with Britain's largest trading partner, the EU, now sit on top of constitutional borders. Again this arises from the exit negotiated by the Conservative/DUP partnership.  The National Farmers Union (NFU) reported (11) its concerns about British livestock exports to France ceasing due to no vet checking facilities.  

This is reminiscent of the DUP's argument that the protocol imposes a trade barrier in the Irish Sea between GB and Northern Ireland.  If the DUP apply consistency they could object to Brexit's imposition of trade barriers between the UK and Europe on top of constitutional borders - a double hit of a border superimposed with a trade barrier.

In September Northern Ireland's Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published post-protocol data showing that production by NI food and drinks companies grew by almost 15% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to 2021.  This follows growth of 6.2% between the first and second quarters of 2022 (12).  

Responding to NISRA's figures, the Ulster Bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey argued that the protocol explains the surge as "local firms have experienced increased sales to the Republic at the expense of GB producers.  Since the protocol came into effect in January 2021, food and beverage output by NI manufacturers has increased by 18.3% which is 2.5 times the comparable growth rate among UK firms." 

The NISRA report adds that Northern Ireland's manufacturing output in general was 5.5% above pre-pandemic levels of the final quarter in 2019, whereas the UK's performance showed a 0.1% drop.  This is an important lesson about Brexit's detrimental impact on Britain's economy

Windsor Framework reaction

Speaking in the House of Commons debate about the Framework,  the response of the former PM Johnson attracted top billing.  In trenchant criticism he claimed, among other things, that the Sunak deal would act as a "drag anchor" on post-Brexit freedoms and that he would find it "very difficult" to vote for it. 

Onlookers in Northern Ireland were incredulous that Mr Johnson had criticised improvements to a protocol which he had negotiated and agreed as PM.  And also one which had been roundly denounced by the DUP at the time as the "Betrayal Act" leading them to abandon devolution.

According to the Times (13), "Johnson's intervention galvanised the ERG of Eurosceptic Tory MPs who are awaiting the verdict of their own star-chamber of lawyers into the deal." 

A day or two later, however, the ERG saviour's momentum was dented by a return to the headlines of his Covid19 party wrongdoings.  Johnson and his allies ignored Westminster protocols by questioning the independent Commons privileges committee.  They accused it of "an outrageous level of bias" after finding significant evidence that the former PM may have misled Parliament (14).  Result - Conservative MPs turned against him.  One adopted the Johnson shipping metaphor saying that this distraction "risks undermining Sunak's progress if it turns into a Trumpian drag anchor."

Party interest - community interest

A friend asked how long will it take the DUP to say no.  Perhaps both the ERG and the DUP will vote to accept the Windsor Framework.  Who knows? 

Uncertainty about the DUP's reaction both to the Framework and also to their boycott of devolution remains.  They have set out 7 protocol tests (15).  And like the ERG they are taking legal counsel on the new framework. They have also established an eight-person panel that includes six party members to inform party thinking (16).  The panel's evidential sources and datasets will make interesting reading.

In the meantime, the electorate continues to endure life without its regional Assembly, apprehensive about the prospect of instability caused by a political vacuum; with business and the public concerned about the negative messages of a void for economic development.  

The pathos and irony of suspension are not lost on voters.  It appears that a pro-union party sees no problems with its abrogation of devolution; whereas the largest party at the last regional election, which advocates a policy to end British rule in Ireland, has been urging the DUP to resume power-sharing in Stormont.

Aware of the DUP's priority to keep Northern Ireland integral to the UK and to implement a hard Brexit, one returns to Matthew Parris's advice to PM Sunak.  His comment that they are disliked in Britain reminds us that loyalty works two ways.  And then there is Parris's final comment about the consequence of the DUP playing the wrecking card with its potential to "bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether."  

At a time when Northern Ireland's constitutional status is protected by the Belfast Agreement signed 25 years ago on Good Friday, is the voice of unionism aware of the law of unintended consequences that could emerge, a la Parris, from strategic miscalculation?

Decision time beckons.  Will the DUP put party interest above public interest; will the national interest be elevated above all else?

 

©Michael McSorley 2023

 References

1. "Brandenburg Gate welcome for King"  Valentine Low Oliver Moody The Times 4 March 2023

2. "Sunak has his best chance to spike Tory crazies" Matthew Parris The Times 25 February 2023

3. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en

4. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en

5"NI economy outperforming UK thanks to Brexit protocol: Experts" S Pogatchnik 11 May 2022 Politico  https://www.politico.eu/article/experts-brexit-protocol-is-boosting-northern-ireland-economy/

6. "NI Dairy Council chief insists protocol is working"  Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 8 June 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/agri/northern-ireland-dairy-council-chief-insists-protocol-is-working/41733987.html

7. "Cross-border trade in Ireland continues to soar 18 months on from NI Protocol introduction" Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 18 July 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/uk-world/cross-border-trade-in-ireland-continues-to-soar-18-months-on-from-ni-protocol-introduction-new-figures-show/41848136.html

8. "Cross border trade continues to soar in both directions, new figures show" Cate McCurry Irish News 15 August 2022 https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2022/08/15/news/cross-border_trade_continues_to_soar_in_both_directions_new_figures_show-2799179/?param=ds441rif44W

9. "Could protocol make Northern Ireland the Singapore of Europe" Freya McClements Brian Hutton Irish Times 16 July 2022 https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/07/16/could-protocol-make-northern-ireland-the-singapore-of-europe/

10. "There's no port lying idle:Brexit tumult is rapidly changing the face of trade on the island of Ireland" Jonathan Keane CNBC 1 August 2022 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/brexit-tumult-is-radically-reshaping-trade-on-the-island-of-ireland.html

11. "British farmers face paying for border checkpoints in EU after Brexit halts exports" James Tapper The Guardian 6 August 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/british-farmers-face-paying-for-border-checkpoints-in-eu-after-brexit-halts-exports

12. "Protocol arguably behind biggest ever surge in annual output by NI food and drink firms" Margaret Canning Belfast Telegraph 15 September 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/protocol-arguably-behind-biggest-ever-annual-surge-in-output-for-ni-food-and-drink-firms/41992232.html

13. "Sunak calls for unity, then Johnson steps up" Steven Swinford Henry Zeffman Chris Smyth The Times 4 March 2023

14. "He's gone full Trump: Tories turn on Johnson over Partygate" Toby Helm Observer 5 March 2023

15. https://mydup.com/news/dup-leader-announces-seven-tests-for-hmg-plans-on-ni-protocol 15 July 2021

16. "Windsor Framework: former leaders join talks panel" BBC NI News 6 March 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-64860448

 

This series consists of the following 20 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022 

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022 

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023