Wednesday 28 April 2021

Politics failing the people

One month after the start of the U.K.’s January 2021 exit from the EU, the Belfast Telegraph published the results of an opinion poll by Lucid Talk.  In essence, it examined public opinion about the state of Northern Ireland’s political parties.  

The paper’s political editor summarised the results thus:-

·         the waning of electoral support for the DUP[i] from 31% at the General Election of December 2019 to 19% (1 Feb), its lowest figure for two decades, with Sinn Féin leading on 24% and Alliance one point behind DUP on 18%;

·         the DUP leader’s position is under pressure[ii]; and

·         ¾ of unionists see no prospect of the GB/NI link being broken in the next 30 years, despite their politicians’ fear that the new Irish Sea border threatens the Union.[iii]

This news coincided with a change in the tone of public discourse.  For example,

·         Indignant anger and/or despair was palpable as that “under pressure” leader repeated her accusation that the EC’s rapidly-abandoned faux pas to invoke A16 of the NI protocol was “an incredible act of hostility... in the most despicable manner[iv];”

·         her party invited unionists to unite in opposition against the protocol which has “to be ditched”;

·         she demanded that the head of the Police Service as well as his senior management team must resign in the aftermath of the decision not to prosecute Sinn Féin for breaking Covid-19 rules; and

·         the leader steadfastly repeated refusals to meet the chief constable to discuss rioting.

Three months on from the opinion poll, the party is considering the “ditching” of its leader[v] despite her pugnacious rhetoric; while the chief constable remains in post.

Neutrals witnessed in disbelief what looked like an unprecedented role reversal.  Sinn Féin criticised unionists for excusing violence and demanded full support for the beleaguered police.  Onlookers wondered about consensual government, the consequences for social cohesion and the impact of fiery politics on community relations – the peace process itself.

The debate about what the UK and the EU had agreed in the NI protocol had descended from the DUP taunt of “betrayal” 15 months ago to something like an Easter rising in April 2021.  

Perplexed observers asked the obvious question. What could the implications be for Europe’s maxim which had guided the negotiations about the UK’s departure?  It was that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.  

With the DUP and loyalists raging against the protocol and the Westminster Government distancing itself from what it has agreed with Europe, what remains of the two elements of the UK/EU deal – the Withdrawal Agreement and the subsequent trade deal?


And given the priority afforded in the UK/EU withdrawal negotiations to safeguarding of the Good Friday Belfast Agreement, what are the implications of demands to ditch the protocol for the peace process?

 

Reaching agreement

The initial Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by PM Teresa May’s administration included a “backstop” as a safety net to protect the UK/EU land border.  Thrice in early 2019, the May deal was rejected by Parliament, the DUP voting against consistently.  At one stage its Westminster leader told BBC that he would prefer to remain in the EU “rather than risk Northern Ireland’s position.[vi]”

When the Conservative Party ditched Mrs May installing Boris Johnson as the new PM, withdrawal negotiations resumed.  In December 2019 he called a General Election securing an overall majority.  The DUP no longer held the balance of power forfeiting its proudly-professed influence and its Westminster leader lost his seat. 

PM Johnson reached a deal with Europe which was approved by Parliament. The DUP, however, voted against the new Withdrawal Act.  Instead of the backstop, the Act included the NI Protocol, required because Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union for goods.  Ipso facto customs checks on goods moving between GB and NI are required.  The European Union Withdrawal Act received Royal Assent in January 2020.

In December 2020 as the end of the UK’s transition year approached, the details of the protocol were agreed between the UK Minister Michael Gove and Maros Sefcovic for the EC as an integral part of the trade deal.  Agreement on the protocol happened just ahead of resolution of two other issues - fisheries and the level playing field.  The final trade deal, a tome of 1246-page, known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 24 December 2020, with ratification on 28 April 2021 by the European Parliament.[vii]

Riots

In the same way that the DUP express outrage at being betrayed by the Conservative Party, loyalists in their heartlands vented their anger over Easter at being let down by the DUP whose support for the Conservatives has delivered a constitutional threat.  Their graffiti didn’t just say “No to the Irish Sea Border,” some added “Foster Out.”  The writing has literally been on the wall for the party leader for some time.  One report[viii] quoted protesters and observers as arguing that

·         “unionist parties were not defending Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, working-class loyalists feel forgotten and marginalised and are using mayhem to get attention and leverage,” with

·         others “sensing the DUP’s hand in the riots saying the party demanded the  chief constable’s resignation to direct loyalist anger towards the police away from the DUP’s role in creating the Irish Sea border.



An eye-witness report[ix] quoted community workers saying that the riots have more to do with unionism’s loss of control and the manipulation of working-class youths than politics.  A Shankill outreach worker, for example, explained that

“the language our political leaders are using is disgraceful and putting people on edge.  There is no two-tier policing...this is about the DUP losing votes to Alliance, People before Profit, the Greens and the SDLP, and not knowing what to do about it. These areas have been badly let down...There has to be a strategy.”

That is the point.  The failure to recognise the corrosive effects of sectarianism and to deliver a strategy on community relations[x] remains a threat to the peace process.  And not a good image for Northern Ireland's centenary.

Business response - examples

Apart from the constitutional threat, unionists also object to the new customs checks on goods travelling between NI and GB because it is “our biggest market.”

When pro-EU electors complain about Scotland and Northern Ireland being removed from the EU against the popular will, they face reminders that Brexit was an all-UK referendum.  That argument can work in another way.

The EU is the UK’s biggest market.  Should unionism not be opposing Brexit’s new trade barriers with Europe?  There is evidence that one consequence of the new borders between the UK and Europe is to drive companies out of the UK and into Europe.

JD Sports, for example,[xi] indicated in February that because

“red tape and delays in shipping goods to Europe means double digit millions in extra costs... JDS may open an EU-based distribution centre creating jobs overseas and not in the UK.... the transfer of about 1,000 jobs into Europe.”    

On 13 April the company confirmed its plan to open a new warehouse in Dublin to tackle post-Brexit trading problems.[xii]” This is in addition to one already opened in Belgium.

Other companies are reported to have decided either to halt exports to the EU or to set up subsidiaries in the EU so that they can distribute goods more easily.  On New Year’s Eve, the meaning of the term “third country” became clear to Amazon when many of its products exported to Ireland from warehouses in Britain became liable for a raft of new taxes.  These charges can add 40% to the cost of certain products, they create delays and they increase red tape.  In response, the company is establishing a 650,000 square foot distribution hub in Baldonnell, Co Dublin “to cut the UK from its Irish supply chain.”[xiii]

On 12 March, data from the Office of National Statistics further evidence of sharp falls both in exports[xiv] and imports between the UK and the EU post-transition.  They quantify a result of declining fortunes for the UK, exports down by over 40% and imports down by 28%.   The accountancy firm KPMG  identified

“Brexit as the likely culprit for the plunge in trade between the UK and the EU.” 

And the head of the British Chambers of Commerce said that

“the significant slump in UK exports of goods to the EU, particularly compared to non-EU trade, provides an ominous indication of the damage being done to post-Brexit trade with the EU by the current border disruption.”

 

Political failure

All of which makes the intervention of nine wise heads more significant.[xv]  A hard-hitting charge that politics in Stormont and in Westminster is failing Northern Ireland comes as a serious indictment that merits serious attention.  Their message to the beleagured PM included this advice:-

“With our experience we are extremely worried that violent unrest on the streets of loyalist areas and at interfaces is a consequence of politics, both in Stormont and in Whitehall failing the people of Northern Ireland....the peace process requires positive political momentum to be maintained...There is a strong sense within loyalist and unionist communities that no one is listening to them and that nobody in Whitehall has been honest with them about the consequences of Brexit. The most immediate step is for the government at the highest level to be seen to take an interest...The best of both worlds promises made by Brandon Lewis and Arlene Foster have not transpired....”

 

 

©Michael McSorley 2021

 Postscript:-

This Brexit series comprises of the following 14 articles:-

Brexit 25 July 2016[xvi]

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017[xvii]

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017[xviii]

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018[xix]

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018[xx]

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019[xxi]

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019[xxii]

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019[xxiii]

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019[xxiv]

Election Communication 8 December 2019[xxv]

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020[xxvi]

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020[xxvii]

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021[xxviii]

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

 

Bibliography and references


[ii] Ibid 1 Feb 2021 “Brexit scapegoat: Foster needs NI protocol changes to survive” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-scapegoat-foster-needs-ni-protocol-changes-to-survive-40033752.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3Ny01Y2QyLTZkOTUtOTRiNi1mMTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACQ4YWQ0NDc0Mi1mNDI5LTQ0M2EtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzXaACQyOGI2MGUxYi0xNmUwLTRkYWYtOTI2MS1kNDQ2OTU5NjVhMDPG7p9CFv6hqEn1_UExuDLRZ2UcPGqpx0CLnk4rTWKlUQ

[iv] Newsletter Andrew Quinn 29 January 2021 https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/arlene-foster-describes-eu-decision-invoke-article-16-incredible-act-hostility-3118100

[v] Suzanne Breen et al Belfast Telegraph 27 April 2021 “Arlene Foster DUP leadership hangs in balance as party source says almost impossible she holds on” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/arlene-fosters-dup-leadership-hangs-in-balance-as-party-source-says-almost-impossible-she-holds-on-40361984.html

[vi] BBC News 30 March 2019 “Brexit: MPs reject May’s EU withdrawal agreement” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47752017

[vii] Naomi O’Leary Irish Times 28 April 2021 “European Parliament ratifies Brexit deal as concerns over UK good faith remain” https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/european-parliament-ratifies-brexit-deal-as-concerns-over-uk-good-faith-remain-1.4549873

[viii] Rory Carroll Observer 11 April 2021 “Betrayed A sense of despair fuels the flames of young loyalist anger” https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/11/despair-fuels-the-flames-of-young-loyalist-anger-in-northern-ireland

[ix] Susan McKay Irish Times 17 April 2017 “Unionism is losing power and control”

[x] https://strategyni.blogspot.com/2013/02/conclusions-on-first-deputy-first.html

[xi] BBC News 9 Feb 2021 “Brexit worse than feared says JD Sports boss” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55997641

[xii] BBC News  13 April 2021 John Campbell “Brexit prompts JD Sports to open Dublin warehouse” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56731570

[xiii] Conor Pope The Irish Times Weekend Review 6 February 2021 “Ireland’s favourite online shop”

[xiv] BBC News 12 March 2021 “UK Exports to European Union Drop 40% in January”  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56370690

[xv] Suzanne Breen Belfast Telegraph 26 April 2021 “Ex NI Secretaries tell Boris Johnson to act on protocol violence” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/ex-ni-secretaries-tell-boris-johnson-to-act-on-protocol-violence-40354411.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3OS0wZDFmLWRmMjgtOTFiMS1lMDE2M2U4MDgxYTXaACRhZGVmY2MwZC1hNDg1LTQ1Y2EtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjY2LaACQ0NzE3OTJiNS03OWU2LTQwMTItOGMzZi1kNzhhZGE0NTU4YmYfy9Kw9DgC8zQrDf3vPC_ophTQe3UZeDxvgOE_uh5lvg

[xvi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2016/07/brexit.html

[xvii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2017/02/global-populism.html

[xviii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2017/08/brexit-14-months-on.html

[xix] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2018/08/our-precious-union.html

[xx] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2018/12/arguments-for-and-against-brexit-as.html

[xxi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/03/brexit-briefings-to-dup-mp-jan-feb-2019.html

[xxii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/04/brexit-lampooned.html

[xxiii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/07/how-can-uks-new-pm-resolve-brexit.html

[xxiv] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/09/omnes-ad-unum-conservatives-and-dup.html

[xxv] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/12/election-communication.html

[xxvi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2020/01/brexit-leaving-britain-undone.html

[xxvii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2020/12/brexit-trade-deal-what-price-sovereignty.html

[xxviii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2021/01/just-how-good-is-uks-trade-deal-with-eu.html

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