Decision time
Getting Brexit Done has proved to be an elusive quest, now two years on from that spurious claim - and counting.
So, on 27 February in a display of carefully-planned choreography, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen co-presented the Windsor Framework. Described by the PM as "a decisive breakthough" this is the UK/EU deal "to replace" Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol.
"Ditch," for the record, has always been the alternative verb of action demanded by the protocol's outspoken vilifiers.
Apart from resolving the protocol's complications, some will say flaws, the PM's wider agenda is "to reset relations with Europe" avoiding potential for a trade war. He hopes also that doing so will let Britain adjust to the exit by resuming collaboration with Europe. This would include Brexit's fallout casualties such as scientific research. The big prize would be the restoration of regional government at Stormont.
For added appeal the announcement was endorsed by the monarch when the EC President had tea with King Charles III and a warm welcome to Windsor Castle. Criticism, paradoxically from prominent DUP leaders, greeted the happening of that meeting.
Undeterred and to drive home the charm offensive, on 26 March "the Majesties" will begin a 6-day visit to France and Germany to attempt to strengthen the UK's relations with Europe post-Brexit (1). Its economic rationale appears well-grounded given the limited impact of Britain in securing trade deals across the globe post-Brexit.
Forty-eight hours before the framework's launch, the journalist and former Conservative MP Matthew Parris supplied guidelines, like a list of home truths, to support the PM. His article exhorted Mr Sunak to be "bold," to exploit his advantage "that no Conservative MP wants an election." Parris's argument (2) included this array:-
- the ERG (European Research Group of Conservative MPs) and the DUP both know that even in Northern Ireland wrecking the Protocol is unpopular;
- the DUP have almost no support over the water and little support in the Commons;
- they know they are widely disliked;
- they know their suspension of power-sharing is hurting their own voters; and
- they know that playing the wrecking card could only bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether.
The day after after announcing the Framework, the PM visited Northern Ireland to promote the new plan. Speaking to factory staff in the DUP leader's constituency, Mr Sunak enthused about Northern Ireland's unique benefits of having access both to the UK's internal market as well as to that of the EU. Brexiteer eyebrows were raised as the PM, himself a Brexiteer, described Northern Ireland as being in "the world's most exciting economic zone."
Let's reflect on the events that have preceeded the Windsor Framework.
Post-Brexit talks
Following the UK's June 2016 referendum, the first of the two phases of exit negotiations culminated in October 2019 with the Withdrawal Agreement. It included no hard border in Ireland and protection of the Good Friday Agreement (3). The second phase concluded on a significant date in British history. 24 December 2020 marks the
announcement of the country's divorce from the EU with the proud PM
Johnson proclaiming it as “a good deal for the whole of Europe.”
The signing up to detailed arrangements, named the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (4) took place on 30 December 2020. That means that It took four and a half years following the referendum before the UK PM was in a position to sign the final deal. At last Brexit had its painstakingly-negotiated agreement in the form of a hefty 1246-page document.
By the by, European nations which did not ever seek a UK exit, as well as British places like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted with majorities against Brexit might dispute the PM's good deal for all of Europe assertion. For voters in Northern Ireland, for instance, who wanted to remain in the EU the only rationale for the protocol was and is the form of Brexit sought and agreed by the Conservative Government with DUP support; had Brexit not been mandated by Great Britain, there would have been no Brexit and no protocol.
Whereas the protocol continues to be an existential bane for many, it is not so for many other Northern Ireland's voters. If, however, the PM gets his way and the Windsor Framework is approved by Parliament, the new arrangement will continue Northern Ireland's mandate by retaining barrier-free access to the EU market for goods.
BrexitTrade deal
A maxim during the prolonged negotiation process repeated that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." PM Johnson's claims to have got Brexit done as 2020 turned into 2021 started to unravel very soon after he signed the papers. Heated rows began about the checking of goods coming from GB into Northern Ireland and the agreed trading arrangements across the century-old constitutional border between the UK and the EU in Ireland.
One has wondered for over two years about the implication that may apply should agreement on the protocol and its implementation fail; and whether or not the EU/UK Brexit deal on trade could collapse as nothing will have been agreed, in theory at least, following the negotiating maxim. In which case UK/EU relations would not be able to be reset.
The UK acceptance of the EU compromise to allow Northern Ireland continued access to its market for goods had also been accepted by the then DUP leader as giving Northern Ireland the best of both worlds.
In the meantime, to reduce the reliance on using the UK as a landbridge for EU goods in transit to and from Ireland, substantial additional provision for direct EU connections between Irish French and Spanish ports was prioritised. In addition, the EU extended grace periods to allow the UK time to implement arrangements for checking goods in transit within Northern Ireland.
Reaction to protocol
Since January 2021 when it started operating, 2 years and 2 months ago, reaction has been both positive and negative. Without dwelling on distressing scenes of street violence in Belfast in its early days, political criticism of the protocol emerged at the beginning of that year both from the Conservative Party's ERG and from the DUP. In essence, these contended that it imposes a "border in the Irish Sea," that it separates Northern Ireland from Great Britain, that it involves jurisdiction by the European Court of Justice and that it has had ruinous impacts on Northern Ireland's economy.
To
emphasise their opposition, the DUP suspended Northern Ireland's regional assembly a full year later in early 2022. Critics of that move query the impact of suspension itself on Northern Ireland's image and its economy.
Most of the running in the debate has been made by advocates of the protocol's threats to trade and sovereignty. Given the continuing focus of the UK Government on the prospective conclusions of the ERG and DUP to the Windsor Framework, it is important to consider both sides of the case.
Benefits
A range of organisations including business and research bodies have cited statistical data as evidence of benefits accruing to Northern Ireland's economy from its access to the EU market. The following examples are from 2022.
In May, the apolitical London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported that the trade protocol helps growth and profitability in Northern Ireland because of its advantageous barrier-free exports to the entire 27-nation EU market (5). NIESR's quarterly report on the UK's economy concluded that Northern Ireland's economic output "has slightly outperformed the UK average."
Agriculture is relatively a more important to the economy in Northern Ireland than it is in Great Britain. Last June, the head of Northern Ireland's Dairy Council Dr Mike Johnston stated that the protocol is working for his sector allowing trade flows to continue (6). He added the message - "do not do anything that will in any way interefere with the current working."
Last July a report from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Dublin presented data on soaring trade for Northern Ireland post-protocol (7). Its figures indicate that the value of goods from Northern Ireland into the Republic rose by 23% between January and May 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. The increase was worth £303million bringing the total flow to £1.6billion.
The CSO figure was higher for goods from the Republic into Northern Ireland with an increase of 42% bringing total trade to a value of £1.8billion. This represents a rise of £497million on the same period in 2021. The report showed that GB imports into the Republic rose by £1.7billion compared to May 2021, while Irish exports to GB were £1.2billion.
In August, a further CSO report presented January to June 2022 datasets (8). Imports for that 6-month period from Northern Ireland into the Republic grew from €413million to €2.3billion compared with 2021; and exports to Northern Ireland from the Republic in the same 6-month period in 2022 grew by €662million to €2.4billion when compared with 2021. These are big numbers indicating substantial economic growth in the Northern Ireland economy.
In terms resonant with the PM Sunak's speech to workers in Lisburn eight months later, the Conservative Brexiteer and founder of Ballymena-based pharmaceuticals company CIGA Healthcare spoke last July about how the protocol could transform Northern Ireland into "the Singapore of Europe. (9)" Irwin Armstrong's company exports to over 70 countries.
Since the protocol began, CIGA has been "expanding very rapidly." Sales to the Republic have doubled; in June he signed a €4.7million contract for new markets in Europe and the Middle East. Wearing his political hat Mr Armstrong added - " if we get the economic situation in Northern Ireland sorted out people will not vote for a united Ireland if they are being offered a much better deal here." Could this be a message for the ERG and for the DUP?
In August the American business news channel CNBC dug into the July CSO datasets about the surge in trade by consulting some Northern Ireland business chiefs (10). Stephen Kelly CEO of Manufacturing NI explained that: "Irish buyers moved away from GB suppliers continuing their trade with the UK by buying from Belfast rather than from Birmingham." This sounds like Conservative Party free markets philosophy and the market process of import substitution.
CNBC also quote Ian Chambers, CEO of Chambers Ireland. He said that there are no ports lying idle, no road idle,"trade is happening and in large numbers." CNBC reported on the rapid increase since 2021 of cargo ships leaving Dublin and Rosslare ports for France and Spain "to avoid the red tape of crossing through Britain." The channel also notes benefits for Belfast port whose "operating profits for 2021 rose by 13% to £34million and 25million shipping metric tons of cargo."
A contrasting report from August presents evidence of the detrimental impact of Brexit on GB where trade barriers with Britain's largest trading partner, the EU, now sit on top of constitutional borders. Again this arises from the exit negotiated by the Conservative/DUP partnership. The National Farmers Union (NFU) reported (11) its concerns about British livestock exports to France ceasing due to no vet checking facilities.
This is reminiscent of the DUP's argument that the protocol imposes a trade barrier in the Irish Sea between GB and Northern Ireland. If the DUP apply consistency they could object to Brexit's imposition of trade barriers between the UK and Europe on top of constitutional borders - a double hit of a border superimposed with a trade barrier.
In September Northern Ireland's Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published post-protocol data showing that production by NI food and drinks companies grew by almost 15% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to 2021. This follows growth of 6.2% between the first and second quarters of 2022 (12).
Responding to NISRA's figures, the Ulster Bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey argued that the protocol explains the surge as "local firms have experienced increased sales to the Republic at the expense of GB producers. Since the protocol came into effect in January 2021, food and beverage output by NI manufacturers has increased by 18.3% which is 2.5 times the comparable growth rate among UK firms."
The NISRA report adds that Northern Ireland's manufacturing output in general was 5.5% above pre-pandemic levels of the final quarter in 2019, whereas the UK's performance showed a 0.1% drop. This is an important lesson about Brexit's detrimental impact on Britain's economy
Windsor Framework reaction
Speaking in the House of Commons debate about the Framework, the response of the former PM Johnson attracted top billing. In trenchant criticism he claimed, among other things, that the Sunak deal would act as a "drag anchor" on post-Brexit freedoms and that he would find it "very difficult" to vote for it.
Onlookers in Northern Ireland were incredulous that Mr Johnson had
criticised improvements to a protocol which he had negotiated and agreed as PM. And also one which had been roundly denounced by the DUP at the time as the "Betrayal Act" leading them
to abandon devolution.
According to the Times (13), "Johnson's intervention galvanised the ERG of Eurosceptic Tory MPs who are awaiting the verdict of their own star-chamber of lawyers into the deal."
A day or two later, however, the ERG saviour's momentum was dented by a return to the headlines of his Covid19 party wrongdoings. Johnson and his allies ignored Westminster protocols by questioning the independent Commons privileges committee. They accused it of "an outrageous level of bias" after finding significant evidence that the former PM may have misled Parliament (14). Result - Conservative MPs turned against him. One adopted the Johnson shipping metaphor saying that this distraction "risks undermining Sunak's progress if it turns into a Trumpian drag anchor."
Party interest - community interest
A friend asked how long will it take the DUP to say no. Perhaps both the ERG and the DUP will vote to accept the Windsor Framework. Who knows?
Uncertainty about the DUP's reaction both to the Framework and also to their boycott of devolution remains. They have set out 7 protocol tests (15). And like the ERG they are taking legal counsel on the new framework. They have also established an eight-person panel that includes six party members to inform party thinking (16). The panel's evidential sources and datasets will make interesting reading.
In the meantime, the electorate continues to endure life without its regional Assembly, apprehensive about the prospect of instability caused by a political vacuum; with business and the public concerned about the negative messages of a void for economic development.
The pathos and irony of suspension are not lost on voters. It appears that a pro-union party sees no problems with its abrogation of devolution; whereas the largest party at the last regional election, which advocates a policy to end British rule in Ireland, has been urging the DUP to resume power-sharing in Stormont.
Aware of the DUP's priority to keep Northern Ireland integral to the UK and to implement a hard Brexit, one returns to Matthew Parris's advice to PM Sunak. His comment that they are disliked in Britain reminds us that loyalty works two ways. And then there is Parris's final comment about the consequence of the DUP playing the wrecking card with its potential to "bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether."
At a time when Northern Ireland's constitutional status is protected by the Belfast Agreement signed 25 years ago on Good Friday, is the voice of unionism aware of the law of unintended consequences that could emerge, a la Parris, from strategic miscalculation?
Decision time beckons. Will the DUP put party interest above public interest; will the national interest be elevated above all else?
©Michael McSorley 2023
References
1. "Brandenburg Gate welcome for King" Valentine Low Oliver Moody The Times 4 March 2023
2. "Sunak has his best chance to spike Tory crazies" Matthew Parris The Times 25 February 2023
3. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en
4. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en
5"NI economy outperforming UK thanks to Brexit protocol: Experts" S Pogatchnik 11 May 2022 Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/experts-brexit-protocol-is-boosting-northern-ireland-economy/
6. "NI Dairy Council chief insists protocol is working" Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 8 June 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/agri/northern-ireland-dairy-council-chief-insists-protocol-is-working/41733987.html
7. "Cross-border trade in Ireland continues to soar 18 months on from NI Protocol introduction" Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 18 July 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/uk-world/cross-border-trade-in-ireland-continues-to-soar-18-months-on-from-ni-protocol-introduction-new-figures-show/41848136.html
8. "Cross border trade continues to soar in both directions, new figures show" Cate McCurry Irish News 15 August 2022 https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2022/08/15/news/cross-border_trade_continues_to_soar_in_both_directions_new_figures_show-2799179/?param=ds441rif44W
9. "Could protocol make Northern Ireland the Singapore of Europe" Freya McClements Brian Hutton Irish Times 16 July 2022 https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/07/16/could-protocol-make-northern-ireland-the-singapore-of-europe/
10. "There's no port lying idle:Brexit tumult is rapidly changing the face of trade on the island of Ireland" Jonathan Keane CNBC 1 August 2022 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/brexit-tumult-is-radically-reshaping-trade-on-the-island-of-ireland.html
11. "British farmers face paying for border checkpoints in EU after Brexit halts exports" James Tapper The Guardian 6 August 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/british-farmers-face-paying-for-border-checkpoints-in-eu-after-brexit-halts-exports
12. "Protocol arguably behind biggest ever surge in annual output by NI food and drink firms" Margaret Canning Belfast Telegraph 15 September 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/protocol-arguably-behind-biggest-ever-annual-surge-in-output-for-ni-food-and-drink-firms/41992232.html
13. "Sunak calls for unity, then Johnson steps up" Steven Swinford Henry Zeffman Chris Smyth The Times 4 March 2023
14. "He's gone full Trump: Tories turn on Johnson over Partygate" Toby Helm Observer 5 March 2023
15. https://mydup.com/news/dup-leader-announces-seven-tests-for-hmg-plans-on-ni-protocol 15 July 2021
16. "Windsor Framework: former leaders join talks panel" BBC NI News 6 March 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-64860448
This series consists of the following 20 articles to date
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
The business of politics 11 May 2022
An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022
Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022
The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023
