Historical perspective again dominates the thoughts of business leaders following the elections to Northern Ireland's Assembly.
Hot on the heels of the "historic" changing of the guard at Stormont come appeals from business leaders urging politicians to get on with the work of government (1) "as companies face their most challenging period in recent history."
In the aftermath of the Democratic Unionist Party's fall from its place as the region's biggest party, its leader warned the Secretary of State and also the Westminster Parliament that he will not nominate ministers to the devolved Assembly's Executive without "decisive action" on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Without definition, his intended meaning of the action demanded is unclear and ambiguous. The potential ranges from its "ditching" through to unspecified reform.
As the diplomat and former U.K.Prime Ministerial chief of staff Jonathan Powell repeats, there is no alternative to the protocol. And none has ever been suggested by the DUP to it, nor to its predecessor backstop.
The protocol's significance is that it was a key element of the U.K.'s Withdrawal Agreement with the EU which the PM signed in December 2020 giving it the status of an international treaty. Any unilateral action to amend or to scrap it would cause considerable repercussions such as a trade war with the EU.
In the continued absence of an Executive, the devolved administration cannot make or execute new policy. Crucially also, it can't make financial plans at a time of growing economic tumult and uncertainty at home and abroad. Questions arise about the region's viability as a political entity.
Whereas the former largest party continues to ignore pleas from business leaders and from the other principal parties to return to government, perhaps we could look to qualified experts for advice. Professor Peter Shirlow (2) from the University of Liverpool, for example, is reported as calling on Sinn Fein (newly installed with the mantle of largest party) to join the DUP "to provide an evidence-base upon which to respond to the protocol."
At first sight that might seem like a forlorn task given that empirical evidence was regularly dismissed by the Vote Leave side as "project fear" during the Brexit referendum campaign. A rare post-Brexit attempt, however, to produce evidence in support of its case against the protocol came as a surprise (and welcome) change of tactic from the DUP leader a couple of days before this month's elections. In a televised debate, he quoted research by a (not widely known) consultancy firm, Kantar, which he cited as corroborating his economic case for the alleged damage being done to the regional economy (3). "Increased food costs in Northern Ireland," he argued "are direct results of the NI Protocol." Sounds uniquivocal.
Given that the report has not been published, not been examined by independent economic experts and not been peer-reviewed, scepticism about the statistical veracity and analysis of this evidence remains. The potential for connection of the alleged economic damage directly and solely to the protocol requires investigation. The party's initiative to produce evidence, nevertheless, provides hope - something on which to build, following Prof Shirlow's urging.
Other evidence, however, particularly about the constitutional impacts of the protocol is already on the public record having been published in recently. Whereas the DUP has cast no aspersions on the new trade borders that Brexit has created between the UK and Europe, its biggest trading partner, the party's hostility to the protocol is asserted as being the major threat to Northern Ireland's constitutional status within the U.K. The British union rather than the one with Europe being the party's raison d'etre explains why the DUP's election litterature always lists the former as its overriding priority.
The implacable opposition of the DUP to the protocol comes under stiff legal challenge in a new book "The Law and Practice of the Ireland-Northern Ireland Protocol." According to a review by a University of Pennsylvania law professor, these 25 essays (4) show that "the DUP's biggest lie is that the protocol violates the principle of consent embedded in the 1998 Belfast Good Friday Agreement." The collection provides insights from practitioners in each of the areas of legal practice that the protocol affects, examining all of its legal dimensions while drawing on international law, EU law, as well as domestic constitutional and public law. Empirical evidence writ large.
 |
| Extract from Irish Times 19 March 2022 review of "The Law and Practice of the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol" |
Arising from the protocol's status as an international treaty, diplomats in Europe have warned the U.K. PM that any international leadership capital built up by Britain since Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be destroyed if he scraps the protocol and overrides the post-Brexit trade arrangements in Northern Ireland (5). Perhaps this explains why plans for legislation to axe the protocol to be listed in the Queens Speech on May 10 were cancelled - allegedly (6). Might Westminster yet scrap it (or parts of it) despite its late omission from the Queens Speech?
Two closing points deserve a mention.
Firstly, it has been reported both on BBC and RTE (7) that the Stormont Executive lead official (Andrew McCormick) in the UK/EU negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement has said that the UK Government knew exactly what the protocol entailed and that it was chiefly responsible for what was agreed with the EU in October 2019. He also dismissed any notion that the protocol was undemocratic in saying that "responsibility for the Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol lies squarely with the UK Government." The Government, he added, fought and won a General Election whose manifesto contained both at its very centre.
Secondly and allied to Mr McCormick's democratic legitimacy argument, one of many salient points made by Professor Katy Hayward in her comprehensive analysis (8) of the Stormont Assembly election results was that the majority of the new Members, MLAs, were elected as supportive of the protocol and keen to see it remain - 54 out of the 90. That sounds like a solid mandate. Is Westminster listening, paying any attention to that voice?
Previous articles in this series have highlighted the protocol's business benefits such as soaring north/south trade, the attractiveness for Invest Northern Ireland (the business development agency) of being able to use the carrot of access to both the EU and UK markets to attract new business to the region (9). Why is one party threatening to deprive Northern Ireland of these opportunities?
It's not just business interests which want the region's Executive to get back to work; the community has only just voted for it; and people are pleading for nothing less in the interests of economic necessity and, not least, in the promotion of community cohesion.
©Michael McSorley 2022
Postscript:-
Following publication yesterday 11 May of the above article, two additional sets of economic analysis and datasets need to be added today 12 May.
The first is a new report by the long-established British think-tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (10). It shows that the protocol is helping not hurting Northern Ireland's growth and profitability because of its advantageous access to EU markets. This contradicts DUP assertions that the protocol's requirement for EU checks on British goods arriving in Northern Ireland has undermined business opportunities.
The second is the late (post-debate) publication on 10 May by Northern Ireland's Department of the Economy of the Kantar Report. It consists ot two pages (11). Whereas it shows that in December 2021 the average price of dairy products in NI was 8% higher than in GB, the average grocery price in GB was 8% higher than in NI. The consultants warn that because the category definitions for GB and NI differ, caution is needed in comparing average prices in GB and in NI. Nowhere does the report appear to attribute the variations to the NI Protocol, as was argued by the DUP leader in the BBC TV debate.
This series consists of the following 17 articles to date
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
The business of politics 11 May 2022
References:-
1. Belfast Telegraph Weekly Business Digest 10 May 2022 Emma Deighan "Stormont Executive is needed now as businesses seek certainty, warn NI Commerce Chiefs" https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/stormont-executive-is-needed-now-as-businesses-seek-certainty-warn-ni-commerce-chiefs-41632128.html?ed
2. Professor Shirlow, Director of Liverpool University's Institute of Irish Studies, has undertaken conflict transformation work in Northern Ireland and has used that knowledge in exchanges with governments, former combatants and NGOs in the former Yugoslavia, Moldova, Bahrain and Iraq. He has also presented talks to members of the US Senate and House of Representatives and is a regular media contributor
3. Belfast Telegraph 4 May 2022 Niamh Campbell "Sir Jeffrey Donaldson uses data commissioned by DUP-led department to support claims made about NI Protocol during debate https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/sir-jeffrey-donaldson-uses-data-commissioned-by-dup-led-department-to-support-claims-about-ni-protocol-during-debate-41615112.html"
4. "The Law and Practice of the Northern Ireland Protocol" Prof Christopher McCrudden (human rights barrister) Cambridge University Press Feb 2022 https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/want-to-understand-the-northern-ireland-protocol-just-read-these-25-essays-1.4817662?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fculture%2Fbooks%2Fwant-to-understand-the-northern-ireland-protocol-just-read-these-25-essays-1.4817662
5. The Times 23 April 2022 "Ditching the NI Protocol plays into Putin's hands, PM warned." Bruno Waterfield, Oliver Wright
6. Belfast Telegraph 10 May 2022 Amy Cochrane "PM indicates situation surrounding NI Protocol now serious as politicians hit out at stupid move to scrap it" https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pm-indicates-situation-surrounding-ni-protocol-now-serious-as-politicians-hit-out-at-stupid-move-to-scrap-agreement-41633931.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE4MC1hZWQ0LWMwMjUtOGRlYi0zYjQzNjkwN2UwNjHaACRlNDgxMjlmOS0yYWUyLTQ3NTYtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzXaACRkM2EyZWU3MC1jZjYxLTQwZTUtYjYxZi1hMGY4NTA2NTNlYmEvqbA94SWPTOOhjFapvqrwaLpuzSRBwQIHVYnyG9eZzQ
7. https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1519390294634029056?s=21&t=Kqd0tFdRyVA_n02M6LxUrQ
8. UK in a Changing Europe "What just happened in Northern Ireland and what does it mean?" Professor Katy Hayward
9. https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2021/08/brexit-and-empty-shelves.html
10. 11 May 2022 "Northern Ireland economy outperforming UK thanks to Brexit protocol: experts" https://www.politico.eu/article/experts-brexit-protocol-is-boosting-northern-ireland-economy/
11. https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/economy/Kantar-Price-Data-for-Northern-Ireland-and-Great%20Britain-December-2021.pdf
