Unlawfulness
The unanimous ruling of the UK’s Supreme Court that the
prorogation of Parliament was unlawful, that “the effect on the fundamentals of
democracy was extreme,[i]” is welcome.
The Conservative Government and the DUP leaderships
have let the UK down.
Mandate
Given the Court’s emphasis on democracy, let’s consider
the latter party. Northern Ireland’s
largest political party proudly displays its credentials on its name
emphasising “democratic” as the first of two adjectives.
On the big issue of the era, however, the DUP does not
represent the majority of Northern Ireland’s electorate which voted three years
ago to remain in the EU. They lack a
mandate in Great Britain, with no MPs or District Councillors in England,
Scotland or in Wales. Unsurprisingly, their
attempt to woo London voters in 2016 with expensive advertising in the Metro
newspaper was rejected when the UK’s capital voted substantially to remain in
the EU.
Yet they wielded influence on Teresa May’s minority Conservative
Government after she lost her majority in Parliament when failing to achieve
the opposite in a General Election. The CP/DUP
arrangement is criticised as impugning the impartiality required of the UK
Government in discharging its crucial co-guarantor role for the Good Friday Agreement.
Nevertheless, the DUP has continued its support for the
Conservative Government under Boris Johnson.
Its influence changed, however, when the PM deprived his own
administration of its working majority by expelling 21 MPs who rebelled in a
crucial vote. At 10 pm on 3 September, all
ten DUP MPs discovered their loss of clout on the Government. Purged of the Father of the House and 20 like-minded
Conservative “rebels,” they failed to defeat Hilary Benn’s bill which blocks a
no deal Brexit. The losing margin for
the Government’s no-deal stance was 28 votes.
The DUP has been uncompromising in supporting the new
PM’s strategy which has been based on his “do or die” in a ditch “come what
May” maxims to leave the EU by 31 October, deal or no deal, not forgetting “no
ifs no buts.” CP/DUP as one, “Omnes ad Unum.”
Following the fondness of her party’s founder for
multiple negatives (“Never, never , never” protesting against the 1985
Anglo-Irish Agreement), the current leader resorted to a double-negative that
“the DUP is not a no-deal party.[ii]” Juxtaposed beside DUP support for the new PM’s
strategy, one stretches to explain the paradox. Perhaps George Orwell’s concept
“doublethink[iii]”
applies.
The DUP provided unequivocal endorsement for the controversial
prorogation of Parliament for 5 weeks. I
was going to add that at least the DUP take their seats in Westminster – but,
familiar with Stormont’s closure, they supported the unlawful suspension of the
Mother of Parliaments. The irony was nailed
with satirical precision[iv] by the Ulster Fry.
Analysis of close votes in the Commons demonstrates the
adverse impact of closed for business. Sinn
Féin’s mandate to stay away from Westminster probably pleases the DUP. Abstention, however, ranks as an abrogation of
electoral responsibility. It disenfranchises its electoral base and it denies
electors a voice where key decisions are made on constitutional and other
matters. Attendance at Westminster could
have nullified or lessened the voting quantum of DUP rivals.
On 11 September, two days into the closure of Parliament,
the Inner Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled that the Government’s prorogation
decision was unlawful. It was ruled as an
attempt to “stymie” (meaning thwart) the House of Commons and prevent MPs from
scrutinising the Government over Brexit.
As one correspondent expressed it, the three judges did
not accept the veracity of the Government’s stated rationale for suspension. For the DUP whose loyalty to the Crown is
displayed on its leader’s lapel, it must have been agonising to be complicit in
drawing the monarch into politics; and even more so to see Her Majesty
consenting on 28 August to the use of her own royal prerogative for an unlawful
act. To have the Scottish judges’
decision upheld by the Supreme Court must turn agony into humiliation.
Good Friday Agreement
The DUP leader argues that the UK/EU Withdrawal
Agreement’s “backstop” insurance policy is unacceptable to all unionists.[v] Evidence contradicts that stance. Results of a new survey[vi] by Lord Ashcroft reveal
that 20% of unionists are prepared to accept the backstop. The party leader’s assertion to speak for all
unionists is cast into doubt.
She ignores that the insurance policy commands strong
support from business and farming organisations, apolitical bodies which are
neutral on the union. Any suggestion
that a legal insurance policy to retain frictionless trade across Ireland
splits the electorate on tribal unionist/nationalist grounds seems
counter-intuitive.
Consistency is an issue for the DUP. The party’s chief whip asserts that the
backstop is “in clear conflict” with the GFA because it has no unionist support.[vii] He cites no quantitative
evidence to verify his claim nor does he rebut the Ashcroft survey. Instead his logic points to the opposite
conclusion which is that Brexit contradicts the GFA because it lacks consent
across the community of Northern Ireland.
Rhetoric
The DUP has earned its reputation and democratic
credentials since its inception through booming and sometimes bellicose public
discourse. It occasionally still reverts to type, as the recent
smear[viii] about “dirty Dublin
tricks” reveals. To witness its current
leadership warning others to “dial down the rhetoric” seems disingenuous,
arguably hypocritical. On 1 August the
party leader instructed Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to dial down his rhetoric[ix] following comments that moderate
unionists and nationalists will query being forced into a hard Brexit which
threatens the economy, north and south.
It came as a surprise, therefore, that there was no call
the next day from her to Jonathan Powell (Downing Street Chief of Staff
1997-2007 and GFA negotiator for the UK Government) when he said that Boris
Johnson will “abandon” the DUP for a free trade deal; and when Barbara Gray the
Assistant Chief Constable of the PSNI argued that a no-deal Brexit could prompt
an upsurge in republican violence,[x] no call emanated from the
DUP complaining of dialled-up rhetoric; and likewise on 3 September when the
credit ratings agency DBRS warned that a hard Brexit could reignite sectarian
violence and a break-up of the UK[xi] there was no clamour
about rhetoric.
What they will make of David Cameron, the father of the
referendum, and his rhetoric about the current PM and Minister for no deal
planning (“leaving the truth at home”). Fact
or fiction, or perhaps you couldn’t make up this stuff? Are Boris Johnson and Michael Gove really being
called liars, who would have thought it?
On which subject, an essay by the Professor of English
and Comparative Literature at Warwick University[xii] revisits George Orwell’s
dire warning about the link between the state of a language and the condition
of politics. “Brexiteers,” he says,
“subscribe to a myth of English exceptionalism, as inscribed in their God-given
fundamentalist language – now demonstrably a language for lying in.” He cites the new PM’s description of his
opponents as “collaborators” and a “junta.” The author recalls the wartime slogan that
“careless talk costs lives” adding that, if Brexit leads to shortages of
medical supplies, that slogan might become all the more important.
Evidence-based policy making
When Government ignores facts and figures, its reputation
suffers and problems arise sooner or later. This failing adversely affected the
Labour Party Government because of its dismissal of evidence for the war in
Iraq. A plethora of expert research
articulates alarming economic impacts of Brexit[xiii] heralding many issues
that warrant urgent political attention. The expert data, however, have regularly
dismissed as “project fear” or forgotten during and since the referendum.
I have asked the DUP earlier this year for the evidential
basis behind its opposition to the UK’s membership of the EU.[xiv] A reply is awaited.
The trend of dismissing evidence has continued this
summer. On 18 August when the Sunday
Times published the Government’s plans for no-deal Brexit (Operation
Yellowhammer) revealing food, fuel and medicine shortages because of Brexit,
the evidence was explained away by Cabinet Ministers as “old.” This was in spite of the fact that the dossier
was compiled by the Cabinet Office almost a fortnight after the election of a
new PM by 92,153 Conservative Party members.
An abbreviated 5-page
version of the Yellowhammer report has since been published (11 September),
with the addition of the term “worst case scenario” to the title. That extra phrase contradicts the leaked
report when a senior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times – “this is not
project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face
with no deal. These are likely, basic,
reasonable scenarios, not the worst case.[xv]”
Not only has the Conservative Government and DUP failed to
rebut evidence, but worse, they have produced no contrary evidence as a basis
for their aggressive exit strategy. Does
either party know more than experts such as the National Institute of Economic
and Social Research, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Bank of England,
the Department for the Economy (NI), and others? And how is it logical that the Government of
the UK does not believe its own expert research?
Every day apolitical organisations publish information which
demonstrates the threats of Brexit. For
example, the Bank of England warns[xvi] that with a no-deal
Brexit, “very big and highly profitable industries in the UK would become
uneconomic.”
And 2/5 of members of
Northern Ireland’s Chamber of Commerce and Trade would move part or all of
their businesses overseas in the event of a no-deal Brexit.[xvii] And a new report from the body E-Surgery[xviii] corroborates one
element of Yellowhammer. It indicates
that 59 medicinal drugs needed to treat breast cancer, epilepsy, diabetes, and
heart failure could become impossible to access.
Community cohesion and neighbourliness
On the issue of the DUP’s pledge to protect the union of
Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Brexit has divided the whole of society,
public opinion and political parties within the “United” Kingdom. It has adversely affected the reputation of its
Parliamentary democracy abroad[xix] and domestically as
minority Government after minority Government struggle to agree on what Brexit
means and on an exit strategy. Businesses
across the UK, on both sides of the Irish border, and in Europe have had cope
with economic uncertainty,[xx] political
unpredictability at Westminster and to invest heavily in Brexit planning.
Most worryingly, the exposure of the UK’s unwritten
constitution[xxi]
has been laid bare as “feeble” and “a byword for democratic fragility.” Does the CP/DUP partnership’s unlawful suspension
of Parliament protect or endanger the reputation of “the precious union?” Do their actions to make it a more attractive
proposition?
People in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU based
on empirical evidence. Divorce from the
EU is a threat to our economy and to peace.
Given the decision to leave, we must protect our interests from the
scenarios predicted by the evidence. If
the Brexit campaign pledge that it will be easy and quick to renegotiate a new
UK/EU trade deal means anything (and which helped win the referendum), there
will be no “border in the Irish Sea.”
Even if there were one, it would be a trade barrier and
not a constitutional border because Northern Ireland has not voted to leave the
UK - at this time. The only evidence of
imminent threat to “the precious union,” a salutary warning for the DUP, comes from
Scotland whose concerns about self-respect, legitimacy and engaging with the
outside world Europe speak eloquently.[xxii]
The erection of new trade barriers between the UK and
Europe, down the North Sea and The Channel, are objectionable to most Scottish
and Northern Irish electors. They voted
to remain in the EU without barriers to our European trade.
Northern Ireland accommodates the UK’s only EU land
border. The case for continuation of a
thriving single island open economy is unimpeachable. Even accepting the self-harm that the unforced
unilateral act of Brexit will effect on the UK, there is no justification for
punishing our neighbours. What is the
CP/DUP alliance thinking?
The Supreme
Court ruling exposes CP/DUP decision-making at a fundamental level.
Northern Ireland wants to continue peaceful living and trading
without political or criminal hindrance across jurisdictions in Ireland and
internationally.
©Michael McSorley 2019
[i]
BBC News 24 September 2019 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49810261
[ii]
BBC News 18 September 2019
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49747203
[iii]
“Politics and the English Language” George Orwell 1946 Doublethink is the power
of holding two contradictory beliefs simultaneously and accepting both.
[iv]The
Ulster Fry 10 September 2019 https://theulsterfry.com/politics/rest-of-uk-adopts-northern-irelands-no-government-policy/
[v]
BBC Radio Ulster Good Morning Ulster Arlene Foster interview 11 September 2019
[vi] Lord
Ashcroft Survey 11 September 2019 https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/11/ashcroft-poll-on-support-the-backstop-reunification-and-party-leaders/
[vii] Belfast
Telegraph 16 September 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/there-is-still-time-to-find-solution-to-irish-brexit-border-issue-insists-dups-donaldson-38500139.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE2ZC0zOWMwLTMzMTItYmVjOC0wMTE2M2VhYjRmOTPaACRlN2U2MjBiOS0xY2NiLTRlZjEtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjZDTaACQ3NTFiODAzYi0xMGE5LTQxZjAtYTE1ZS1iZTM2NWQzNTlmMGFbHRrZ_otLdxwmTkn9RXaQnLf7V9qYJHGaED8e_iwf7A
[viii]
Belfast Telegraph 12 September 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/blow-for-belfast-as-ryanair-and-aer-lingus-cut-routes-38490545.html
[ix]
Belfast Telegraph 1 August 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/leo-varadkar-rejects-arlene-fosters-project-fear-claim-saying-all-should-be-afraid-of-nodeal-brexit-38366151.html
[x]
Irish Times 31 August 2019 p1
[xi]
Irish Times Peter Hamilton 4 September 2019 https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/severe-hard-brexit-could-reignite-sectarian-violence-ratings-agency-says-1.4007451
[xii]
Irish Times The Ticket 14 September 2019 Thomas Docherty https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/decay-of-english-language-makes-it-perfect-for-lying-1.4012377
[xiii]
https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/07/how-can-uks-new-pm-resolve-brexit.html
[xiv] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/03/brexit-briefings-to-dup-mp-jan-feb-2019.html
[xv]
The Times 19 August 2019 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/operation-chaos-whitehalls-secret-no-deal-brexit-plan-leaked-j6ntwvhll
[xvi]
BBC News 2 August 2019 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203426
[xvii]
Belfast Telegraph Business 13 September 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/firms-planning-to-quit-northern-ireland-if-there-is-hard-brexit-survey-38492309.html?fbclid=IwAR3I8AY5qCpzOQBssQY7giMPlILGhvKMpbRU5cUscwxE4YbLejep_k_NhE0
[xviii]
Belfast Telegraph 13 September 2019 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/revealed-59-vital-medicines-that-may-be-impossible-to-get-if-the-uk-crashes-out-of-europe-38492903.html
[xix]
Observer 4 August 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/04/how-does-the-rest-of-the-world-currently-view-the-uk-brexit-boris-johnson
[xx]
The Times 27 July 2019 Sterling’s fall in value Investors rattled by Johnson’s
appointment
[xxi]
Irish Times 3 September 2019 Fintan O’Toole https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-welcome-to-the-united-kingdom-of-absurdistan-1.4005396?fbclid=IwAR0jlz5cG4t5WAC3mz-1_pgZttGdZsLnD1rhTZjqBrzE-7TSA2Xg4MNtuAo
[xxii] 18 September 2019
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/18/if-scotland-eventually-goes-brexit-may-have-given-it-a-hefty-shove-out-the-door/
