Winning friends and influencing people

Now that we're in the tenth month of the U.K's departure from the EU, it appears that the British public considers that Brexit is going badly.  Serious questions arise, including:-

• How could it be that the withdrawal agreement which the UK PM promoted lavishly as "oven ready" and "a great deal for the whole of Europe" is instead disappointing many of his own electors and politicians?  
• Are empty shelves and labour shortages what to expect when the U.K. turns its back on its largest trading partner?  
• How can the Government at Westminster's reputation for acting in good faith be trusted internationally if it signed the legally-binding NI protocol knowing that it would not honour it? and
  
• Is it surprising to read that recent YouGov polling shows that the number of people with a positive take on Brexit was only 18%, down seven percentage points compared to June?

 

Irish Times 9 Oct 2021 Graphic of the Week

The first objectors to the deal signed by the PM following long negotiations were loyalists in Northern Ireland.  They gave violent expression to their politicians' argument that the deal threatens its union with Great Britain.  Subsequently, interruptions to supply-lines in certain retail outlets in GB emerged resulting in closures of some outlets.   For NI suppliers, however, access to the EU market  provided substitution options with cross-border trade soaring.

At the same time, labour supply problems emerged as road hauliers were hampered by a shortage of truck drivers as a consequence of EU drivers remaining away post-Brexit.   This problem coincided with petrol stations running out of fuel as panic-buying by consumers in GB took hold.

While GB has encountered these shortages of goods and labour, Northern Ireland business flourished as the withdrawal deal gave it unique access to the EU single market for goods (1).  Business organisations welcomed the economic upturn.  This despite the hostility of the Democratic Unionist Party and of the UK Brexit Minister to the withdrawal deal. 

The continued access to the EU market provided an asset for Invest NI, the Government agency responsible for attracting inward investment.  In a recent interview (2), Ireland's EU commissioner for financial services Mairead McGuinness pointed out that Northern Ireland hasn't had the supply shortages endured by GB and "certainly not queues for petrol."  She also criticised the U.K. for failing to implement the protocol and that it "made no effort to communicate what it had agreed."

The former Conservative MP and senior journalist Matthew Parris analysed the UK Government's attitude to the Northern Ireland protocol (3).  He began (mirroring the Irish EU commissioner's comments) by criticising "our bellicose Minister for EU relations," Lord Frost who 

    "with all the delicacy of a heifer in a minefield kicked courtesy aside while in the middle of     discussions over the NI protocol... With goodwill a fudge is within reach but Frost is a stranger to     diplomacy."

Parris  quotes the Minister's party conference speech wherein he described EU membership as "a long bad dream," and his threatening to suspend the protocol under the Article 16 emergency measure.  But as Parris explains, there is no emergency in Northern Ireland.  What the Times journalist objects to above all else is Frost's use of an implicit threat of disorder with his quotation from Kipling that "all men arise to the noise of fetters breaking." From which Parris concludes that

    "Ministers are courting danger by implicitly using the threat of civic disorder by Orange loyalist             ultras as an argument for suspending the protocol."  He adds that 

    "Protestant Unionism as a governing force may be at the beginning of a long slow death.  The                 Democratic Unionist Party is in trouble...They never did like the Good Friday Belfast Agreement.         They now give lip service to the latter as a means of attacking the former..."

Evidence in support of the DUP's increasing troubles came subsequently with the High Court ruling that their failure to attend recent meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council is unlawful (4).  And this on top of the party's falling poll ratings, as well as criticism of their threat to collapse the Stormont Assembly - never mind a majority who rejected Brexit and whose views the party does not represent.

Latterly, the issue of staffing shortages associated with EU withdrawal (and combined with other factors including Covid) has been reported in the beleagured NHS (5) and in the pandemic-ravaged Care Home sector (6).  That report described the social care recruitment shortage as a crisis.  A subsequent BBC news report cites further examples from across England of the care sector's struggles to recruit staff  (7).

Labour shortages have also been widely reported in agriculture, such as in Britain's pig farming sector; and also in construction with its potential negative repercussions for the Government's house-building targets.  One might ask - do the British workers not want the British jobs they voted for?

The initial response from Government to the problems caused by shortages of materials and labour is unconcern, don't panic (presumably like British motorists over fuel).   Or as the PM put it, Britain cannot resort to the old ways of his Prime Ministerial predecessors by levering in low-cost staff from abroad when it should instead raise staff pay (8).  At a time of soaring energy prices globally, however, the growing concerns of British business about cost inflation contrast sharply with what it sees as Government inaction.

 

One is reminded of the old maxim - be careful what you wish for - in this case, it being the threat to the union.  

Unionist politicians argue that the UK/EU withdrawal deal is wrecking Northern Ireland's economy and also its constitutional link to GB.   Is one or other claim really true?  Even if it is, why trash the nation's reputation for trust now?  Recent comments from two prominent Brexiteers (9), Dominic Cummings and Ian Paisley - assuming that they are reliable witnesses - suggest that "Brexit was done" but by deceit, and done so on orders from the very top.

And what is the likely effect of fraudulence for UK  as it continues its re-negotiations with Europe; and what about the implications for future negotiations with others abroad and in other contexts (such as on climate change and global energy price escalation).  And why ditch an internationally-agreed deal while ignoring wider-ranging threats of Brexit to the economy and to the union of four nations?

Considering the scale and growing intensity of the UK's current situation, is it not the case that all of the its current supply-side problems - for goods, for distribution and for labour - present a greater total threat to the economy and also to the coherence of the 4-part union than any alleged negatives of a streamlined NI protocol.  It, after all, returns a unique peace dividend in the form of an economic windfall, and one that is actually supported by the majority of electors and business people alike. 

 

©Michael McSorley 2021 

Postscript:- 

This series consists of the following 16 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

 

References

1. https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2021/08/brexit-and-empty-shelves.html

2. Irish Times 9 Oct 2021 "UK needs to be less emotional on Brexit"

3. The Times 9 October 2021 "Tories ride this Orange tiger at their peril" Matthew Parris

4. BBC News 12 Oct 2021 "NI protocol: DUP boycott of North-South meetings unlawful" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58874131

5. The Observer 10 Oct 2021 "Nursing Crisis sweeps wards as NHS battles to find recruits"

6. BBC2 Newsnight 11 Oct 2021 Louis Goodall

7. BBC News 13 Oct 2021 "Care staff shortage worse than before pandemic, study shows" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58884651

8. Financial Times 3 Oct 2021 "Boris Johnson reluctant to issue more visas to foreign workers" https://www.ft.com/content/7bb06060-8878-413c-b46b-3eafc881ff6f

9. BBC News 14 October 2021 "Ian Paisley claims Boris Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58910220?fbclid=IwAR2Vx8kVXuoZYTB6bjyYqJVLk7iac9YY2RO6fRxrScNYY9mF8VgI0YexP-w

 

Brexit and empty shelves

 Britain’s supply chains in Brexit’s brave new world

Six months and counting since the U.K. took its leave from its largest trading partner, the EU, and timely to ask - how is its economy performing? 

Bear in mind the PM’s declaration on December 24  that the new EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which he had just signed, is “a good deal for the whole of Europe.” 

In recent weeks examples have been cropping up to indicate problems of empty shelves, issues of driver shortages raised by hauliers and by retailers, culminating in delays in the provision of products to meet consumer demand.  

When Great Britain departed from the EU single market and took back control on 1 January,  its agreed deal included special provision for Northern Ireland.  It remains inside the EU market for goods.   

With minimal delay Brexit’s impacts on supplies of certain classes of goods into Northern Ireland began to emerge.   The ugly sceptre of violence returned to some streets in Belfast as loyalists protested about customs checks arising from the new arrangements for transporting goods within the U.K. from GB to NI.

And yet, statistics just published reveal that trade between the Republic and Northern Ireland since the U.K’s exit has grown spectacularly in the six months spanning January to June 2021 - €800 million in round figures.  

Data published by the Central Statistics Office in Dublin (1) show that imports from Northern Ireland to the Republic have risen by 77% since the U.K’s departure from the EU.  

At the same time, the value of the Republic’s exports to Northern Ireland has risen by 43%.

These are big numbers.  The figures that underlie the percentages are significant.  For example, the value of the Northern imports into the Republic rose from just under €1 billion for the same period last year to €1.77 billion in the first six months of 2021.  And exports from the Republic to Northern Ireland rose to €1.57 billion, up from €1.1 billion last year.

Some British-based businesses are reported to have established bases in Northern Ireland to facilitate (some might say exploit) opportunities to trade with the Republic; and some companies in the Republic are reported to have replaced imports from GB with imports from NI.

 

Irish Times 21 August 2021 Value of cross-border trade June 2020- June 2021

The chief executive of Manufacturing NI has expressed surprise at the scale of trade and described the opportunity presented for Northern producers.  

He noted that nearly €800 million of additional sales into the Republic had been achieved in the first six months of 2021 “which,” in his words, “is enormous.”  

He added that whereas the figures prove that market access is critical for trade, the amount of disruption on GB/NI trade won’t be known, in his opinion, for at least another year.

More recently, supply-side hurdles indicate that Northern Ireland is not alone in witnessing problems in catering for demand.  Similar issues have begun to occur in supply chains within Great Britain itself.  One restaurant chain (Nandos) was forced to close 50 outlets in GB.  

Significantly, that same chain was not experiencing supply issues in its Irish outlets - neither in the Republic nor north of the border; and a week later, another similar chain (McDonalds) reported supply chain problems at 1250 of its outlets in England, Scotland and Wales (but not in Northern Ireland). 

Brexit and its effect on the availability of drivers is being cited as an important constituent cause of the disruption (2).  

For example, analysis of the Office of National Statistics’s Labour Force Survey suggests that 14,000 EU lorry drivers left UK jobs last year with only 600 returning by July this year.  

The same BBC report refers to the impacts of supply chain bottlenecks on other large businesses including the supermarket giant Tesco.  

Empty shelves in an Essex Tesco (taken 25 August 2021)

A subsequent BBC report quotes the supermarket Iceland as saying that the supply chain chaos is worsening as retailers start Christmas planning (3).  Its company boss is quoted as estimating the national shortage of lorry drivers as about 100,000.  

Don’t even mention panic buying.

Whereas the trading data support a prima facie case for Northern Ireland coping with Brexit (which it rejected democratically) better than some would have predicted, availing of access to EU markets and, arguably, thriving (at least economically) as a result - can the same be said for other parts of the U.K?

 

©Michael McSorley 2021 

Postscript:- 

This series consists of the following 15 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Britain’s supply chains in Brexit's brave new world 27 August 2021

References

1. Irish Times 16 & 17 August 2021 “Brexit fuels major pick-up in North-South trade”  https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/imports-from-ni-to-republic-up-77-since-uk-s-eu-exit-1.4648699

2. BBC News 24 August 2021 “McDonalds runs out of milkshakes in England Scotland and Wales” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58315152 

3.  BBC News 25 August 2021 “Tesco and Iceland bosses warn over Christmas supplies”

Politics failing the people

One month after the start of the U.K.’s January 2021 exit from the EU, the Belfast Telegraph published the results of an opinion poll by Lucid Talk.  In essence, it examined public opinion about the state of Northern Ireland’s political parties.  

The paper’s political editor summarised the results thus:-

·         the waning of electoral support for the DUP[i] from 31% at the General Election of December 2019 to 19% (1 Feb), its lowest figure for two decades, with Sinn Féin leading on 24% and Alliance one point behind DUP on 18%;

·         the DUP leader’s position is under pressure[ii]; and

·         ¾ of unionists see no prospect of the GB/NI link being broken in the next 30 years, despite their politicians’ fear that the new Irish Sea border threatens the Union.[iii]

This news coincided with a change in the tone of public discourse.  For example,

·         Indignant anger and/or despair was palpable as that “under pressure” leader repeated her accusation that the EC’s rapidly-abandoned faux pas to invoke A16 of the NI protocol was “an incredible act of hostility... in the most despicable manner[iv];”

·         her party invited unionists to unite in opposition against the protocol which has “to be ditched”;

·         she demanded that the head of the Police Service as well as his senior management team must resign in the aftermath of the decision not to prosecute Sinn Féin for breaking Covid-19 rules; and

·         the leader steadfastly repeated refusals to meet the chief constable to discuss rioting.

Three months on from the opinion poll, the party is considering the “ditching” of its leader[v] despite her pugnacious rhetoric; while the chief constable remains in post.

Neutrals witnessed in disbelief what looked like an unprecedented role reversal.  Sinn Féin criticised unionists for excusing violence and demanded full support for the beleaguered police.  Onlookers wondered about consensual government, the consequences for social cohesion and the impact of fiery politics on community relations – the peace process itself.

The debate about what the UK and the EU had agreed in the NI protocol had descended from the DUP taunt of “betrayal” 15 months ago to something like an Easter rising in April 2021.  

Perplexed observers asked the obvious question. What could the implications be for Europe’s maxim which had guided the negotiations about the UK’s departure?  It was that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.  

With the DUP and loyalists raging against the protocol and the Westminster Government distancing itself from what it has agreed with Europe, what remains of the two elements of the UK/EU deal – the Withdrawal Agreement and the subsequent trade deal?

And given the priority afforded in the UK/EU withdrawal negotiations to safeguarding of the Good Friday Belfast Agreement, what are the implications of demands to ditch the protocol for the peace process?

 

Reaching agreement

The initial Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by PM Teresa May’s administration included a “backstop” as a safety net to protect the UK/EU land border.  Thrice in early 2019, the May deal was rejected by Parliament, the DUP voting against consistently.  At one stage its Westminster leader told BBC that he would prefer to remain in the EU “rather than risk Northern Ireland’s position.[vi]”

When the Conservative Party ditched Mrs May installing Boris Johnson as the new PM, withdrawal negotiations resumed.  In December 2019 he called a General Election securing an overall majority.  The DUP no longer held the balance of power forfeiting its proudly-professed influence and its Westminster leader lost his seat. 

PM Johnson reached a deal with Europe which was approved by Parliament. The DUP, however, voted against the new Withdrawal Act.  Instead of the backstop, the Act included the NI Protocol, required because Northern Ireland remains within the EU customs union for goods.  Ipso facto customs checks on goods moving between GB and NI are required.  The European Union Withdrawal Act received Royal Assent in January 2020.

In December 2020 as the end of the UK’s transition year approached, the details of the protocol were agreed between the UK Minister Michael Gove and Maros Sefcovic for the EC as an integral part of the trade deal.  Agreement on the protocol happened just ahead of resolution of two other issues - fisheries and the level playing field.  The final trade deal, a tome of 1246-page, known as the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 24 December 2020, with ratification on 28 April 2021 by the European Parliament.[vii]

Riots

In the same way that the DUP express outrage at being betrayed by the Conservative Party, loyalists in their heartlands vented their anger over Easter at being let down by the DUP whose support for the Conservatives has delivered a constitutional threat.  Their graffiti didn’t just say “No to the Irish Sea Border,” some added “Foster Out.”  The writing has literally been on the wall for the party leader for some time.  One report[viii] quoted protesters and observers as arguing that

·         “unionist parties were not defending Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, working-class loyalists feel forgotten and marginalised and are using mayhem to get attention and leverage,” with

·         others “sensing the DUP’s hand in the riots saying the party demanded the  chief constable’s resignation to direct loyalist anger towards the police away from the DUP’s role in creating the Irish Sea border.

An eye-witness report[ix] quoted community workers saying that the riots have more to do with unionism’s loss of control and the manipulation of working-class youths than politics.  A Shankill outreach worker, for example, explained that

“the language our political leaders are using is disgraceful and putting people on edge.  There is no two-tier policing...this is about the DUP losing votes to Alliance, People before Profit, the Greens and the SDLP, and not knowing what to do about it. These areas have been badly let down...There has to be a strategy.”

That is the point.  The failure to recognise the corrosive effects of sectarianism and to deliver a strategy on community relations[x] remains a threat to the peace process.  And not a good image for Northern Ireland's centenary.

Business response - examples

Apart from the constitutional threat, unionists also object to the new customs checks on goods travelling between NI and GB because it is “our biggest market.”

When pro-EU electors complain about Scotland and Northern Ireland being removed from the EU against the popular will, they face reminders that Brexit was an all-UK referendum.  That argument can work in another way.

The EU is the UK’s biggest market.  Should unionism not be opposing Brexit’s new trade barriers with Europe?  There is evidence that one consequence of the new borders between the UK and Europe is to drive companies out of the UK and into Europe.

JD Sports, for example,[xi] indicated in February that because

“red tape and delays in shipping goods to Europe means double digit millions in extra costs... JDS may open an EU-based distribution centre creating jobs overseas and not in the UK.... the transfer of about 1,000 jobs into Europe.”    

On 13 April the company confirmed its plan to open a new warehouse in Dublin to tackle post-Brexit trading problems.[xii]” This is in addition to one already opened in Belgium.

Other companies are reported to have decided either to halt exports to the EU or to set up subsidiaries in the EU so that they can distribute goods more easily.  On New Year’s Eve, the meaning of the term “third country” became clear to Amazon when many of its products exported to Ireland from warehouses in Britain became liable for a raft of new taxes.  These charges can add 40% to the cost of certain products, they create delays and they increase red tape.  In response, the company is establishing a 650,000 square foot distribution hub in Baldonnell, Co Dublin “to cut the UK from its Irish supply chain.”[xiii]

On 12 March, data from the Office of National Statistics further evidence of sharp falls both in exports[xiv] and imports between the UK and the EU post-transition.  They quantify a result of declining fortunes for the UK, exports down by over 40% and imports down by 28%.   The accountancy firm KPMG  identified

“Brexit as the likely culprit for the plunge in trade between the UK and the EU.” 

And the head of the British Chambers of Commerce said that

“the significant slump in UK exports of goods to the EU, particularly compared to non-EU trade, provides an ominous indication of the damage being done to post-Brexit trade with the EU by the current border disruption.”

 

Political failure

All of which makes the intervention of nine wise heads more significant.[xv]  A hard-hitting charge that politics in Stormont and in Westminster is failing Northern Ireland comes as a serious indictment that merits serious attention.  Their message to the beleagured PM included this advice:-

“With our experience we are extremely worried that violent unrest on the streets of loyalist areas and at interfaces is a consequence of politics, both in Stormont and in Whitehall failing the people of Northern Ireland....the peace process requires positive political momentum to be maintained...There is a strong sense within loyalist and unionist communities that no one is listening to them and that nobody in Whitehall has been honest with them about the consequences of Brexit. The most immediate step is for the government at the highest level to be seen to take an interest...The best of both worlds promises made by Brandon Lewis and Arlene Foster have not transpired....”

 

 

©Michael McSorley 2021

 Postscript:-

This Brexit series comprises of the following 14 articles:-

Brexit 25 July 2016[xvi]

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017[xvii]

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017[xviii]

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018[xix]

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018[xx]

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019[xxi]

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019[xxii]

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019[xxiii]

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019[xxiv]

Election Communication 8 December 2019[xxv]

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020[xxvi]

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020[xxvii]

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021[xxviii]

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

 

Bibliography and references

---

[i] Suzanne Breen Belfast Telegraph 1 Feb 2021 “DUP’s support takes a dive in wake of Irish Sea Border row” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dups-support-takes-a-dive-in-wake-of-irish-sea-border-row-40033751.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3Ny01Y2QyLTZkOTUtOTRiNi1mMTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACQ4YWQ0NDc0Mi1mNDI5LTQ0M2EtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzTaACRiMDcxZmEyZi05MmEzLTQzYTMtYTk3YS04M2ZmNTgyZDYxN2OL71S4YaEpqByxHUghb4ULyMVfbILaGWSLGK6nJVD3Rg

[ii] Ibid 1 Feb 2021 “Brexit scapegoat: Foster needs NI protocol changes to survive” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-scapegoat-foster-needs-ni-protocol-changes-to-survive-40033752.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3Ny01Y2QyLTZkOTUtOTRiNi1mMTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACQ4YWQ0NDc0Mi1mNDI5LTQ0M2EtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzXaACQyOGI2MGUxYi0xNmUwLTRkYWYtOTI2MS1kNDQ2OTU5NjVhMDPG7p9CFv6hqEn1_UExuDLRZ2UcPGqpx0CLnk4rTWKlUQ

[iii] Ibid 1 Feb 2021 “Vast majority of unionists believe NI will still be part of UK in 30 years” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/vast-majority-of-unionists-believe-ni-will-still-be-part-of-uk-in-30-years- 40038727.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3Ny02MWRmLTlkYmYtYWU5OC03MTE2M2VjNmE0YTbaACRhZjg4ODM2OS1lNjJiLTQ4YjItMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzbaACQzYTYyZDQzYS0zNjEyLTQyNDMtYWVmYS04ODRlNWExZTJlNzizCOUC6MQS5wrN_57JMw-QMIhJV7VN_37UMdjJDSXMcw

 

[iv] Newsletter Andrew Quinn 29 January 2021 https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/arlene-foster-describes-eu-decision-invoke-article-16-incredible-act-hostility-3118100

[v] Suzanne Breen et al Belfast Telegraph 27 April 2021 “Arlene Foster DUP leadership hangs in balance as party source says almost impossible she holds on” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/arlene-fosters-dup-leadership-hangs-in-balance-as-party-source-says-almost-impossible-she-holds-on-40361984.html

[vi] BBC News 30 March 2019 “Brexit: MPs reject May’s EU withdrawal agreement” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47752017

[vii] Naomi O’Leary Irish Times 28 April 2021 “European Parliament ratifies Brexit deal as concerns over UK good faith remain” https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/european-parliament-ratifies-brexit-deal-as-concerns-over-uk-good-faith-remain-1.4549873

[viii] Rory Carroll Observer 11 April 2021 “Betrayed A sense of despair fuels the flames of young loyalist anger” https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/11/despair-fuels-the-flames-of-young-loyalist-anger-in-northern-ireland

[ix] Susan McKay Irish Times 17 April 2017 “Unionism is losing power and control”

[x] https://strategyni.blogspot.com/2013/02/conclusions-on-first-deputy-first.html

[xi] BBC News 9 Feb 2021 “Brexit worse than feared says JD Sports boss” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55997641

[xii] BBC News  13 April 2021 John Campbell “Brexit prompts JD Sports to open Dublin warehouse” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56731570

[xiii] Conor Pope The Irish Times Weekend Review 6 February 2021 “Ireland’s favourite online shop”

[xiv] BBC News 12 March 2021 “UK Exports to European Union Drop 40% in January”  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56370690

[xv] Suzanne Breen Belfast Telegraph 26 April 2021 “Ex NI Secretaries tell Boris Johnson to act on protocol violence” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/ex-ni-secretaries-tell-boris-johnson-to-act-on-protocol-violence-40354411.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3OS0wZDFmLWRmMjgtOTFiMS1lMDE2M2U4MDgxYTXaACRhZGVmY2MwZC1hNDg1LTQ1Y2EtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjY2LaACQ0NzE3OTJiNS03OWU2LTQwMTItOGMzZi1kNzhhZGE0NTU4YmYfy9Kw9DgC8zQrDf3vPC_ophTQe3UZeDxvgOE_uh5lvg

[xvi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2016/07/brexit.html

[xvii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2017/02/global-populism.html

[xviii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2017/08/brexit-14-months-on.html

[xix] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2018/08/our-precious-union.html

[xx] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2018/12/arguments-for-and-against-brexit-as.html

[xxi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/03/brexit-briefings-to-dup-mp-jan-feb-2019.html

[xxii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/04/brexit-lampooned.html

[xxiii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/07/how-can-uks-new-pm-resolve-brexit.html

[xxiv] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/09/omnes-ad-unum-conservatives-and-dup.html

[xxv] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/12/election-communication.html

[xxvi] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2020/01/brexit-leaving-britain-undone.html

[xxvii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2020/12/brexit-trade-deal-what-price-sovereignty.html

[xxviii] https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2021/01/just-how-good-is-uks-trade-deal-with-eu.html