Now that we're in the tenth month of the U.K's departure from the EU, it appears that the British public considers that Brexit is going badly. Serious questions arise, including:-
- How could it be that the withdrawal agreement which the UK PM promoted lavishly as "oven ready" and "a great deal for the whole of Europe" is instead disappointing many of his own electors and politicians?
- Are empty shelves and labour shortages what to expect when the U.K. turns its back on its largest trading partner?
- How can the Government at Westminster's reputation for acting in good faith be trusted internationally if it signed the legally-binding NI protocol knowing that it would not honour it? and
- Is it surprising to read that recent YouGov polling shows that the number of people with a positive take on Brexit was only 18%, down seven percentage points compared to June?
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| Irish Times 9 Oct 2021 Graphic of the Week |
The first objectors to the deal signed by the PM following long negotiations were loyalists in Northern Ireland. They gave violent expression to their politicians' argument that the deal threatens its union with Great Britain. Subsequently, interruptions to supply-lines in certain retail outlets in GB emerged resulting in closures of some outlets. For NI suppliers, however, access to the EU market provided substitution options with cross-border trade soaring.
At the same time, labour supply problems emerged as road hauliers were hampered by a shortage of truck drivers as a consequence of EU drivers remaining away post-Brexit. This problem coincided with petrol stations running out of fuel as panic-buying by consumers in GB took hold.
While GB has encountered these shortages of goods and labour, Northern Ireland business flourished as the withdrawal deal gave it unique access to the EU single market for goods (1). Business organisations welcomed the economic upturn. This despite the hostility of the Democratic Unionist Party and of the UK Brexit Minister to the withdrawal deal.
The continued access to the EU market provided an asset for Invest NI, the
Government agency responsible for attracting inward investment. In a recent interview (2), Ireland's EU commissioner for financial services Mairead McGuinness pointed out that Northern Ireland hasn't had the supply shortages endured by GB and "certainly not queues for petrol." She also criticised the U.K. for failing to implement the protocol and that it "made no effort to communicate what it had agreed."
The former Conservative MP and senior journalist Matthew Parris analysed the UK Government's attitude to the Northern Ireland protocol (3). He began (mirroring the Irish EU commissioner's comments) by criticising "our bellicose Minister for EU relations," Lord Frost who
"with all the delicacy of a heifer in a minefield kicked courtesy aside while in the middle of discussions over the NI protocol... With goodwill a fudge is within reach but Frost is a stranger to diplomacy."
Parris quotes the Minister's party conference speech wherein he described EU membership as "a long bad dream," and his threatening to suspend the protocol under the Article 16 emergency measure. But as Parris explains, there is no emergency in Northern Ireland. What the Times journalist objects to above all else is Frost's use of an implicit threat of disorder with his quotation from Kipling that "all men arise to the noise of fetters breaking." From which Parris concludes that
"Ministers are courting danger by implicitly using the threat of civic disorder by Orange loyalist ultras as an argument for suspending the protocol." He adds that
"Protestant Unionism as a governing force may be at the beginning of a long slow death. The Democratic Unionist Party is in trouble...They never did like the Good Friday Belfast Agreement. They now give lip service to the latter as a means of attacking the former..."Evidence in support of the DUP's increasing troubles came subsequently with the High Court ruling that their failure to attend recent meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council is unlawful (4). And this on top of the party's falling poll ratings, as well as criticism of their threat to collapse the Stormont Assembly - never mind a majority who rejected Brexit and whose views the party does not represent.
Latterly, the issue of staffing shortages associated with EU withdrawal (and combined with other factors including Covid) has been reported in the beleagured NHS (5) and in the pandemic-ravaged Care Home sector (6). That report described the social care recruitment shortage as a crisis. A subsequent BBC news report cites further examples from across England of the care sector's struggles to recruit staff (7).
Labour shortages have also been widely reported in agriculture, such as in Britain's pig farming sector; and also in construction with its potential negative repercussions for the Government's house-building targets. One might ask - do the British workers not want the British jobs they voted for?
The initial response from Government to the problems caused by shortages of materials and labour is unconcern, don't panic (presumably like British motorists over fuel). Or as the PM put it, Britain cannot resort to the old ways of his Prime Ministerial predecessors by levering in low-cost staff from abroad when it should instead raise staff pay (8). At a time of soaring energy prices globally, however, the growing concerns of British business about cost inflation contrast sharply with what it sees as Government inaction.
One is reminded of the old maxim - be careful what you wish for - in this case, it being the threat to the union.
Unionist politicians argue that the UK/EU withdrawal deal is wrecking Northern Ireland's economy and also its constitutional link to GB. Is one or other claim really true? Even if it is, why trash the nation's reputation for trust now? Recent comments from two prominent Brexiteers (9), Dominic Cummings and Ian Paisley - assuming that they are reliable witnesses - suggest that "Brexit was done" but by deceit, and done so on orders from the very top.
And what is the likely effect of fraudulence for UK as it continues its re-negotiations with Europe; and what about the implications for future negotiations with others abroad and in other contexts (such as on climate change and global energy price escalation). And why ditch an internationally-agreed deal while ignoring wider-ranging threats of Brexit to the economy and to the union of four nations?
Considering the scale and growing intensity of the UK's current situation, is it not the case that all of
the its current supply-side problems - for goods, for distribution
and for labour - present a greater total threat to the economy and also
to the coherence of the 4-part union than any alleged negatives of a streamlined NI protocol. It, after all, returns a unique peace dividend in the form of an economic windfall, and one that is actually supported by the majority of electors and business people alike.
©Michael McSorley 2021
Postscript:-
This series consists of the following 16 articles to date
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
References
1. https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2021/08/brexit-and-empty-shelves.html
2. Irish Times 9 Oct 2021 "UK needs to be less emotional on Brexit"
3. The Times 9 October 2021 "Tories ride this Orange tiger at their peril" Matthew Parris
4. BBC News 12 Oct 2021 "NI protocol: DUP boycott of North-South meetings unlawful" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58874131
5. The Observer 10 Oct 2021 "Nursing Crisis sweeps wards as NHS battles to find recruits"
6. BBC2 Newsnight 11 Oct 2021 Louis Goodall
7. BBC News 13 Oct 2021 "Care staff shortage worse than before pandemic, study shows" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58884651
8. Financial Times 3 Oct 2021 "Boris Johnson reluctant to issue more visas to foreign workers" https://www.ft.com/content/7bb06060-8878-413c-b46b-3eafc881ff6f
9. BBC News 14 October 2021 "Ian Paisley claims Boris Johnson promised to tear up NI protocol" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58910220?fbclid=IwAR2Vx8kVXuoZYTB6bjyYqJVLk7iac9YY2RO6fRxrScNYY9mF8VgI0YexP-w
