The London editor of a national newspaper has penned a widely-referenced article (1) pondering the state of the nation, covering all of the current issues of the day. His thorough piece is all about the worries gripping the people of the UK at present.
It resonates not only because of the compelling evidence presented but also because the Prime Minister's simultaneous decision in September to postpone the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars had prompted my article about u-turns in the Government's policies (2).
Given the gravity of the journalist's analysis, his article presents key findings which, being buried on page 14 of his newspaper, deserve a wider audience. The London correspondent interprets the PM's action as his way - using his own carefully-crafted words -
"to capture a sense of diclinism that lately has wrapped itself around Britain like a wet heavy blanket."
He quotes Mr Sunak's own similarly gloom-laden line that
"Britain has stumbled into a consensus about the future of our country that nobody seems happy with."
Those words come across as a sorry epitaph on 13 years of Government. So, what exactly is gnawing at the heart of Britain? The evidence offered by the journalist to support the PM's case includes the following facts and figures:-
- the U.K's post-Brexit stasis is evident from "anaemic" economic growth and because of national debt at its highest level for 60 years;
- living standards are in the middle of their biggest two-year fall since the 1950's because of inflation;
- infrastructure is creaking;
- industrial relations are sour;
- national morale is low after years of "political psychodrama;"
- Britain's NHS is "a national embarrassment, festooned with strikes, escalating waiting times and a balooning bill that could swamp its public finances;" and
- the country's ill-at-ease sense plays out in culture-war debates on issues ranging from trans rights to climate change.
On the positive side and presumably for the sake of balanced reporting, he reminds us that
- Britain remains the world's sixth biggest economy meaning that a bounceback may be possible from the "flagging productivity" that is hindering growth;
- it is "a bastion of Parliamentary democracy" with multi-ethnic front benches;
- Britain has led backing for Ukraine against Russian invasion; and
- despite Brexit strife, relations with Europe have improved.
On the negative side, he quotes
- Prof Anand Menon of Kings College London who dismisses (at length and emphatically) the domestic view about Britain being world-beaters; and he quotes
- Prof Tim Bale, Queen Mary University of London who argues that the Conservative Party has lost its place as a stable centre-right force, exemplified by the PM's "pivoting Britain away from ambitious climate change strategy," and that "our governing politics have gone off the scale."
The article quantifies the nation's problems with statistical economic data, for example, to illustrate that
- the economy is the top issue at 37% of those polled by Ipsos in September, more than twice as many who mentioned climate. High inflation/cost of living came second at 30%, ahead of the NHS and immigration
- the U.K's record national debt, £2.5 trillion has recently topped 100% of the size of the economy, its GDP, for the first time since the 1960's. The national interest bill of more than £100 billion has doubled in a year
- he quotes the British economist Gerard Lyons who says that Britain is in "a debt trap" where interest rates (5.25%) exceed growth rates (barely 0.5%) - "something has to give"
- the Centre for Policy Studies say the cost of an ageing population will be more problematic. ONS data, for example, predict a rise in England from 18.2% to 20.7% in over-65's in the decade to 2028
- NHS waiting lists grew to a record 7.3 million this summer, at a time when 150,000 NHS posts remain unfilled. Boosting immigration, however, to provide NHS employees runs counter to the net legal migration target of 600,000. Yet, as the article demonstrates, Britain's net migration figures have doubled since before Brexit.
The article's exposition of the actual scale of the U.K's national debt run up by a Government in power since 2010 is not, one suspects, widely known and appreciated. The same goes for the gravity of difficulties faced by the NHS, including enormous and growing waiting lists as well as recruitment problems.
The article doesn't have time or space to mention the economic and other problems faced by constituent parts of the union. Because of a lengthy protest by the DUP against Westminster's EU Brexit deal, Northern Ireland has no devolved administration in place to address problems which have arisen or have become more complex since (or possibly because of) the sacking of the Stormont Assembly. These include a worrying range of urgent economic, environmental, policing, health service, labour relations, drugs, constitutional and other issues. The latter include the parlous state of the region's budget and finances. Responsibility is being abrogated.
Whatever shade of autumnal gloom PM Sunak has identified as prevalent in GB requiring him to turn policies around at will, the mood is darker and more severe across the Irish Sea. The repeated absence of devolved government raises questions about the very viability of the region as a political unit; and in the context of serious conflicts abroad, it also piles untimely pressure on the fragility of Northern Ireland's hard-won peace process.
If the PM is correct and electorates in Scotland England and Wales are disenchanted with the state of the nation's economics and politics following Brexit (3), one's inclinations suggest that those same feelings are magnified somewhat in Northern Ireland.
© Michael McSorley 2023
References
1. "What's eating Britain? The issues gripping its soul" Mark Paul London Correspondent The Irish Times 7 October 2023
2. "Electric cars and climate change" 30 September 2023 https://michaelmcsorleynature.blogspot.com/2023/09/electric-cars-and-climate-change.html
3. This series consists of the following 20 articles to date
Brexit 25 July 2016
Global Populism 27 Feb 2017
Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017
Our Precious Union 29 August 2018
Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018
Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019
Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019
How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019
Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019
Election Communication 8 December 2019
Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020
Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020
Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021
Politics failing the people 28 April 2021
Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021
Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021
The business of politics 11 May 2022
An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022
Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022
The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023