Our Precious Union

Not long to wait now.  On 29 March 2019 the United Kingdom will divorce the European Union. 

The question on everybody’s lips is what kind of deal, if any, will be made.  The issue which continually emerges as the big obstacle to a successful outcome is the Irish/British border.

Parliament at Westminster began its summer recess in a state of turmoil, toxicity being the other word used to summarise the atmosphere among elected Members over the Government’s Brexit stance.  

In spite of her best efforts, the Prime Minister’s Chequers “agreement[i]” in July does not seem to have assuaged the Conservative Party’s increasingly acrimonious wrangling; and its key proposal about collecting EU duties has been rejected by the EU.[ii]

In the lead-up to the Chequers deal, concerns were raised by sectors of British industry[iii] about uncertainty, the impacts of a hard Brexit, and the dangers of no deal between the Government and the EU.   

There is also emerging statistical evidence that in the midst of uncertainty and acrimony voters are changing their minds with the majority preferring now to remain in the EU.[iv]

Unsurprisingly the border has become the subject of increased discussion within Northern Ireland prompted by its prominence as a Brexit priority.  

Alex Kane, former director of communications to the Unionist Party, made this argument back in April.[v]  

Most significantly, the former DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson entered the debate warning that unionism needs to prepare for the eventuality of a border poll.

Responding to what he described as hysterical commentary from “shrill voices within unionism,” Mr Robinson wrote[vi] an articulate defence of his argument about the need for contingency planning.  In comments tellingly critical of the Brexit referendum, he added that this should have been but was not carried out in the referendum process.

The Brexit process also failed to take account of facts.  Empirical evidence was ignored. Brexit campaigner Michael Gove’s infamous eschewing of experts[vii] is a case in point.  Another is the former Brexit Secretary David Davis’s admission to a House of Commons Committee that no economic impact assessments of Brexit had been carried out.[viii] 

There is also the matter of electoral fraud, a synonym for subversion of the democratic process.  This finding was pronounced by the UK’s regulatory authority, the Electoral Commission,[ix] on 17 July.  The Vote Leave organisation has been referred to the police for breaking electoral law (and also fined).

Public confidence in the Leave case has also been damaged by the then Foreign Secretary’s response to the pleas from car manufacturers, aerospace, pharmaceuticals etc to avoid a hard or no deal Brexit when he said “F... business.[x]”  

Some would conclude that profanity is a sign that he had lost the intellectual argument, if not also the plot. 

As if to illustrate that unbusiness-like attitude being put into practice, Westminster’s official line for Northern Irish businesses seeking advice about a no deal Brexit is to phone the Government in Dublin.[xi]   Predictably, the reaction locally has been incredulity.  

The Government’s paper “Trading with the EU if there’s no Brexit deal” creates the impression of bordering on disinterest in Northern Ireland by the Government.  In the aftermath of the its publication, the Chancellor of the Exchequer warned[xii] that Northern Ireland would bear the worst impact of No Deal.  

Its electorate will respond that (like Scotland) it feels disenfranchised, deal or no deal, having voted to stay in the EU.

Another symptom of malaise is the exhibition by the City of London of nerves following the Bank of England Governor’s comments about a growing likelihood of a no-deal exit.  The reaction prompted a further devaluation of sterling against the euro and other currencies.  Prospects for a smooth divorce seem more parlous by the day.

Herman Van Rompuy the former President of the European Council describes the threat of a no-deal Brexit as “an existential threat to the UK itself[xiii]” with “the EU27 becoming more united and a United Kingdom less united.”  This contrasts with the Prime Minister’s use of the term “our precious union” for the UK and not for the EU. 

The PM's repeated commitment (prior to July's Chequers deal) to remove the UK from the Customs Union and from the Single Market has been emphatic.  
We also have her clockwork assurances of Government's objective to retain a frictionless seamless invisible border between the UK and Ireland. Invisibility means no border posts, no security cameras and no number-plate recognition technology. 

The Brexit campaign pledge to take back control of the country's borders, however, transmogrifies the PM's promises. How can the UK's only land border be controlled without any controls? Brexit voters expect borders to be controlled to reduce the inflow of migrants and refugees. 

Reconciliation of the Brexit objective to control borders with the keeping of the British/Irish border seamless stretches the intellectual senses. George Orwell coined the term "doublethink." This he defined as the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously and accepting both of them.

One commentator described the UK’s proposals for its EU border as absurd.[xiv]  This is because of the new trade deals that post-Brexit UK plans to make.  

He argues that

“with no Irish border controls, US beef Australian lamb Chinese steel and Indian cars can be imported into Belfast, sent to Dundalk and exported tariff-free to any EU country....”

The Queens University Belfast acedemic Dr Kate Hayward described the idea of a frictionless border as oxymoronic[xv]. It is based, she argues, on the Leave demand to take back control of trade, immigration and laws. Technological solutions for controlling the movement of goods are limited. She points out that "Ireland is Northern Ireland's most important export market, 31% of Northern Ireland's exports and 56% of its trade to the EU."  

The positive news is that the heretofore intractable issue of the Britain’s only land border is now being debated openly on the basis of facts rather than on emotion.  

In contrast to the toxic Brexit campaign, we are now witnessing the emergence of a healthy dialectic where expert comment and empirical evidence are being used to analyse the arguments about the border. 

The economist David McWilliams compares the economies on both sides of the border numerically[xvi]:-

 

·         “Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now ten times greater than that of Northern Ireland.  Exports from the Republic are £77.85bn while from Northern Ireland exports are £5.25 bn.

·         “Immigration is a good indicator of economic success; people move to places where they feel their kids will have a better life.  Today in the Republic one in six people are foreign born.  In Northern Ireland it is one in a hundred.

·         “Direct foreign investment tells you about the choices made by foreign capital.  Since the Good Friday Agreement, American corporations alone have invested close to £312bn in the Republic; that is equivalent to 56 years of the British Government’s annual subvention to keep Northern Ireland afloat.

·         “At the moment, the Republic’s budget deficit is 1% of GDP.  If Northern Ireland had to pay for itself in the morning, the budget deficit would be 22% of GDP.”

The financial journalist Patrick Collinson says that European countries are competing to attract financial services which want to leave the UK and move to an EU country.  Ireland, it appears is in the forefront not least because of the English language.   

He states that Ireland’s economy is surging on the basis of a big business exodus from London.[xvii]  

His datasets show Ireland in 2017 as Europe’s fastest growing economy – for the fourth year in a row.

He presents statistics comparing the economies of UK and Ireland.  For example,

·         average pay is £26,200 in the UK and £33,900 in Ireland;

·         economic growth in the UK was 1.8% in 2016, forecast to fall to 1.7% in 2017; the equivalent figures for Ireland are 5.1% in 2016 with a 4.8% forecast for 2017;

·         unemployment is 4.5% in the UK compared to 6.6% in Ireland; and

·         house price inflation in the UK is 2.9% compared to 11.7% in Ireland.

Two recent reports have analysed statistical data to examine the constitutional implications of Brexit for the border.  

In April, the economic commentator and journalist Paul Gosling published a paper[xviii] setting out how one political economy in Ireland in the context of Brexit might be achieved.   

Following a thorough analysis of the figures, his report concludes that

“there is a significant positive economic benefit from Irish reunification, particularly for the citizens of Northern Ireland...and includes a ten point plan for how Irish reunification might be achieved.”

A similar conclusion is provided in a report by a German economist Günter Thumann (who was part of the IMF team overseeing German reunification).[xix]  

Based on his experience and an analysis of the data, Thumann concludes that the people of Northern Ireland would be better off in a united Ireland inside the EU.[xx]

His report examines a plethora of international statistical sources.  It analyses Northern Ireland’s revenue and expenditure, it takes account of the experience of German reunification, it compares the economies of Northern Ireland and the Republic’s over 100 years, and he compares Ireland’s economic performance globally.[xxi]  

Meanwhile as Westminster prepares to return to work after its summer recess, Northern Ireland’s devolved administration continues its collapse[xxii] due to irreconcilable differences, divorce or no divorce. 

Extract from Ulster Fry's "Surviving Brexit" spoof 12-stage guide

One seeks sanctuary in satire[xxiii].

©Michael McSorley 2018

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[i] BBC News 7 July 2018The New UK Brexit Plan https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44749993

[ii] Independent 27 July https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-chequers-theresa-may-single-market-eea-uk-eu-remain-a8466356.html

[iii] Financial Times 22 June 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/ee84acd0-7631-11e8-a8c4-408cfba4327c

[iv] Observer 5 August 2018  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain

[v] Alex Kane Belfast Telegraph 25 April 2018 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/alex-kane-unionism-is-facing-its-biggest-challenge-in-almost-a-century-but-there-is-nothing-inevitable-about-a-united-ireland-36841758.html

[vi] Peter Robinson Belfast Telegraph 3 August 2018 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/peter-robinson-some-refuse-to-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room-but-it-is-positioning-itself-to-squat-upon-their-laps-37179957.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE2NC1mZjc5LTBjMGYtODU0Zi1mMjE2M2U5Y2IwOTjaACQ0MTg4OTcwZC0xNGQyLTQxZWQtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzPaACRlZTU3NjZmNi04MThkLTQ3OTQtYTkzMy0xMmUwMDI3ODRmMzWJZl7-R9duXx4IMYDj__o9Xt-De0ixtfHm6tox0TQgAQ

[vii]Financial Times 3 June 2016  https://www.ft.com/content/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c

[viii] The Independent 6 Dec 2017 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html

[ix] https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/vote-leave-fined-and-referred-to-the-police-for-breaking-electoral-law

[x] Financial Times 26 June 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

[xi] Suzanne Breen Belfast Telegraph 24 August 2018 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/business-chiefs-left-angry-and-astounded-by-governments-phone-dublin-brexit-advice-37246868.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE2NS02YjlmLTgxZGItOTM0MC1lNTE2M2UzNDYwMDjaACQyYTVlOWVhZS1lZTg3LTRkZDgtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjZTnaACQ1N2RkODFlMS00ODEwLTQxNGQtODBjMi1lZGUxODU1YWE5YWVJYeoPTyZfEhdAz27Yqx8z1KJXolo51QWmpya2HpN2AQ

[xii]Belfast Telegraph 24 August 2018 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/chancellor-warns-nodeal-brexit-to-have-largest-negative-impact-on-northern-ireland-37246835.html

[xiii] Observer 26 August 2018 page 1 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/25/no-deal-brexit-break-up-uk-warns-van-rompuy

[xiv] The Guardian 16 August 2017 Fintan O’Toole https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper

[xv] QPOL 11 July 2017 http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/irish-border-oxymoron/

[xvi] Belfast Telegraph 26 June 2017 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/demographics-are-shifting-towards-a-united-ireland-we-must-have-a-plan-35865222.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjIwMDAwMDE1Yy1lNDE2LTNhODMtODk5My0xYTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACRkZWY0NmQ5NC0zYjFkLTQ0N2QtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjY2TaACRhM2I1NTg0My00NDAyLTRjOWYtODcyYi00ODBjM2E4YjkwOTN9BNewfyzCCO0ssuf9aXiOz6ePcjM6TmKvZye2T-jPCQ

[xvii] Observer 6 August 2017 Patrick Collinson Guardian money editor.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/06/brexit-fuelled-boom-dublin-celtic-tiger-roars-again

[xviii]Paul Gosling “The Economic Impact of an All Island Economy.”  http://www.paulgosling.net/2018/04/2915/

[xix]Belfast Telegraph 26 July 2018  https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-could-be-be-financially-better-off-in-a-united-ireland-claims-new-report-37157908.html

[xx]Gunther Thumann “Northern Ireland’s Income and Expenditure in a Reunification scenario” https://www.byline.com/column/22/article/2244

[xxi] https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf

[xxii] BBC News 28 August Rallies call for return of Assembly https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45336784

 [xxiii]Ulster Fry 23 August 2018 Protect and Survive https://theulsterfry.com/politics/no-deal-brexit-advice-issued-by-government/