Brexit 14 months on

The end of the summer recess approaches.  

All the while, Northern Ireland’s Assembly has been enjoying a longer break, ever since its collapse in January.

In the aftermath of the UK’s post-Brexit election - or “car crash” in the words of one commentator - it’s opportune to consider the first quarter of the 2-year negotiation period about our way out of the European Union.

A lingering doubt has been lurking in my subconscious for months.  

There is a big “What if” question.  In spite of the campaign sloganeering and the new “position papers” that are appearing fourteen months after the referendum, what if the Mother Parliament’s best intentions should produce an unforeseen outcome?   

Could the law of unintended consequences happen with political economics of Brexit?

Use the example of the furthermost part of the United Kingdom from Europe, where it’s at as we move into September 2017.   

Consider the consequences of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s smallest “nation.”   
Northern Ireland, to its credit, has benefitted from almost two decades of a peace process, brokered by the UK and Ireland, and supported by the EU and by the USA.

The collapse of the Northern Ireland Assembly accentuated by failure to have it resurrected is the latest in a sequence of impasse over a period of two decades.  Differences between the two largest parties appear irreconcilable.

Even if an Administration were to rise tomorrow from the cash and ashes, there would be pessimists sceptical about its durability.

Because stalemate recurs with habitual frequency, uncomfortable questions arise about Northern Ireland's viable governance.   Some weeks after the most recent collapse, the editor of the Belfast Telegraph commented[i] on what she described as “our excuse for a political system.”   

Her words included hopelessness, apathy, disillusionment and rot.  She detected contempt for “a depressing and failed political culture.”

Northern Ireland has grappled with majority rule for several decades, direct rule from Westminster for a few more decades, and currently two decades of an increasingly fractious mandatory coalition.  

If this newest and hard-won style of regional government can’t be made to work lastingly, honest debate is needed about the future of this seemingly recalcitrant nation.

The list of questions that prompt an appraisal is lengthy.

·         How long are people in Northern Ireland (and those in Great Britain to which it expresses loyalty) prepared to tolerate the inability of their elected politicians to govern during an era of dramatic change internationally?

·         Are the Members of its Legislative Assembly not aware that the region’s reputation suffers and that its peace is threatened when care for public finances looks negligent?

·         Do those same Members have any feelings for the taxpayers of England Wales and Scotland whose regions receive less from the UK Exchequer per head of population than Northern Irish citizens?

·         How can their collective conscience reconcile accepting generous salaries and conditions yet failing to form a stable Administration?

·         Assuming we’re not just in the UK for the money and that our biggest party supports Westminster’s economic policy including financial prudence, what is the economic justification for squeezing £1.5 billion of funding from the UK Exchequer on top of the block grant?

·         Have Northern Ireland’s politicians not heard the complaints from Scotland Wales and England about the additional funds they must pay for our loyalty?

·         It is only a couple of years ago that Her Majesty’s Government was advocating a “rebalancing” of the Northern Ireland economy.  Has the objective of making the region less dependent on the UK’s public purse disappeared without explanation?

·         Have the £1b’s potential medium-term dangers been considered after the reaping of its short-term stimulus?  Has HM Treasury not carried out an Economic Appraisal of the additional £1b and which would have considered risks and uncertainties (such as short term gain and prospects for unwanted longer term pain)?

Financial woes do not reflect a track record of diligence in caring for public finances.  Other problems arise from the low priority afforded to community cohesion, evident especially during what should be the peak tourist season.  

Northern Irish politics itself is beset with a cancerous rancour.  This is instanced by the lack of any semblance of collective cabinet responsibility.  

And the denial of rights granted in all of Great Britain through the refusal to legislate for secular issues in Northern Ireland reinforces an image of an un-British nation wedded to theocracy and incapable of developing a tolerant and inclusive society.

On top of that, the vision of Britishness portrayed by aggressive loyalty under the name of culture[ii] lacks any appeal for moderate voters content with rule from Westminster, regardless of faith or constitutional allegiance.  These are the people who have supported the status quo for many years in the interests of community harmony.

If these matters aren’t sufficient justification for a contemporary appraisal of Northern Ireland’s governance, then one defining act adds impetus to an imperative for a conversation about our future.  

That is the UK’s irrevocable decision to leave the European Union.

Brexit

In the referendum on European Union membership (23 June 2016) when the UK majority voted to Leave, approximately 56% of Northern Irish voters chose to Remain, to reject the Leave campaign.   

The then First Minister did, in fairness, acknowledge (after the event) that “we always knew” that this would happen because, as she said, four of the five regional parties had campaigned to stay in Europe.

A journalist reported on the Democratic Unionist Party’s support for Brexit and its expensive 4-page glossy advertising aimed at commuters in London’s Metro magazine.  He argued[iii] that the party abandoned in a “breathtakingly irresponsible way” its duty to represent the majority in Northern Ireland.

Several weeks after publication of that article, the DUP named its generous sponsor, adding that feedback had been positive.  Even if that claim can be validated, the feedback from a substantial majority of London’s voters (like those in Northern Ireland) rejected the DUP’s arguments about taking back control.  Perhaps its record in regional Government may have influenced Londoners.

The same journalist had previously warned that the Brexit vote undermined the 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement[iv].  His argument was that because the Agreement incorporates the European Convention on Human Rights into Northern Ireland law, removal of the Convention would undermine the basis of the Agreement.  

Others including an influential House of Lords Peer voiced concern[v] about the potential for Brexit to endanger Northern Ireland’s peace process.

Immediately after the Brexit referendum result was announced, the UK journalist Matthew Parris expressed the opinion that he felt ashamed to be British[vi].  

His argument was that the Leave team had based its campaign on “resentment of foreigners and in many cases hatred of immigrants.”

More recently, he has excoriated[vii] the planning of Brexit by the Conservative Government to date as “criminally incompetent.”  

When a former Conservative MP, a journalist who chooses his words carefully, berates the Government for creating “this mess” and accuses it of “being irresponsible to the point of culpable recklessness towards the country’s future,” it’s time to listen.

By repeating that he feels “ashamed to be British,” Parris is delivering a despairing cri de coeur.   

It rhymes with the sense of shame and betrayal experienced by pro-EU voters, let down by a Westminster Government which had campaigned to Remain.  For Northern Ireland which rejected Leave, ripping our forty-five year ties to Europe against the popular mandate inspires little confidence in British values.

Speaking at the Edinburgh Festival,the Scottish Government's Minister for the Brexit negotiations Michael Russell argued that Westminster is ignoring the views of the UK's devolved Administrations.  Input from Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, he argued, is crucial if only because devolved matters like environment, agriculture and forestry are primarily the concern of their devolved Assemblies rather than of Westminster. 
Northern Ireland's electorate is even further sidelined from Brexit consultations by the failure of its politicians to assume responsibility for devolved Government.

The 2-year negotiation process between the UK and the EU began six months ago.  At the outset, the EU has stated that the three priority issues to be decided in the Brexit negotiations are the “divorce” bill, arrangements for citizens’ rights in the UK and of those in the EU, and the impact of Brexit on Ireland.  The European Council's Guidelines on the Ireland issue emphasise that "flexible and imaginative solutions will be required..."

The recently-departed leader of Ireland’s Government urged the EU to include the Good Friday Agreement clause about Irish reunification in the EU’s Brexit deal citing as precedent the reunification of Germany[viii].  

A subsequent report by a Parliamentary Committee in Ireland has recommended, among other things, that Northern Ireland be awarded special status in a post-Brexit Britain.[ix]

The new leader of Ireland’s Government[x], however, has argued that no bespoke solution for Northern Ireland would be needed if the UK stays within the Customs Union and the Single Market.

These comments come on the back of the Prime Minister’s express objective (to retain a frictionless seamless border) and from her Brexit Secretary of State (an invisible border).   

In similar vein, the UK Government’s recent position paper restates these objectives which will include no change to its existing land border with Ireland.  This means no border posts, no security cameras and no number-plate recognition technology.  Sounds too good to be true.

One expert calls the UK’s proposals for the border “absurd.”[xi]  This is because of the new trade deals that post-Brexit UK plans to make.  

He argues that 

“with no Irish border controls, US beef Australian lamb Chinese steel and Indian cars can be imported into Belfast, sent to Dundalk and exported tariff-free to any EU country....”

The Queens University academic Dr Katy Hayward has previously described the idea of a frictionless border[xii] as oxymoronic.  It is based, she argues, on the Leave demand to take back control of trade, immigration and laws.  Technological solutions for controlling the movements of goods, she adds, are limited.   

She illustrates the crucial importance of the border to business thus.

“The Republic of Ireland is Northern Ireland’s most important export partner (31% of Northern Ireland’s exports and 56% of its trade to the EU).”

The Prime Minister’s repeated commitment to remove the UK from the Customs Union and from the Single Market is emphatic, clear and understood.   

Nevertheless, reconciliation of her objective to take back control of the UK’s only land border with the EU with the keeping of the British/Irish border invisible stretches the intellectual senses.  

Are these two objectives not mutually exclusive?
The EU negotiator Guy  Verhofstadt has called the British concept of invisible borders a "fantasy" comparing it to a surrealist picture.

The Treachery of Images Rene Magritte 1929

George Orwell coined the term “Doublethink.”  This he defined as the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.

With oxymoron and double-think at work, is the Brexit trap-door wide open for the law of unintended consequences to pounce?  Another Queens University academic,Dr Graham Brownlow, suggests that Brexit's underlying model of expectations is wrong, meaning that the outcome is bound to differ.

Options

Could Northern Ireland, acting to respect its majority wish to Remain in the EU, unite either with an independent Scotland or else with Ireland?   The community of Northern Ireland has inextricable historical and cultural links with both places.

There is, of course, no guarantee that the uncompromising attitudes of Northern Irish politicians would change.  Likewise, there is no guarantee either that Scotland or Ireland would welcome us.  

Having tried everything else, however, events dictate the need to consider something imaginative.

A similar consideration might equally apply to the prospective attitude of citizens in Great Britain (should they be asked about their loyalty to us) given our devolved administration’s generosity with UK taxpayers’ money.   

Has our reputation been damaged by the deal to coax DUP support for the programme for Government and Brexit legislation?  

Has that deal stretched the patience and loyalty of average British taxpayers to Northern Ireland beyond what they can spare?

Ireland

In the not so distant past, Ireland was demonised by many in Northern Ireland fearful of its Constitutional claims and the power of the Roman Catholic Church.  Those days have gone as the Republic has welcomed new residents from all over the world and has become a multi-cultural and more secular society.  

Its infrastructure is superior in many instances to that of Northern Ireland, such as in its road and IT networks.

It has led the way internationally on reform of various social policies.  

Apart from being the first (and seemingly most unlikely) country to ban smoking in pubs and public places, it was one of the first to impose the plastic bag tax, and it was the first country in the world to introduce same-sex marriage as a result of an emphatic public mandate.

Most significantly, it was the first European country to emerge successfully from the catastrophic global financial crash and bail-out having implemented stringent remedial measures.

Its economy is again recording growth above the EU average.

The economist David McWilliams refers to Ireland’s disinterest in Northern Ireland.  

He does, however, warn his audience thus[xiii]:- 

“Much as we Southerners might like to ignore what is happening in Northern Ireland, we can’t ignore it indefinitely.  The democratic sands are shifting towards a United Ireland; Brexit and the attendant car crash in England have accelerated this process immeasurably.”

His analysis illustrates the emphatic demographic changes emerging from Census data.  These indicate the doubling of the Catholic population and the halving of the Protestant population in the youngest age cohort.

He also compares the two economies to point out that:-

·         “Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now ten times greater than that of Northern Ireland.  Exports from the Republic are £77.85bn while from Northern Ireland exports are £5.25 bn.

·         “Immigration is a good indicator of economic success; people move to places where they feel their kids will have a better life.  Today in the Republic one in six people are foreign born.  In Northern Ireland it is one in a hundred.

·         “Direct foreign investment tells you about the choices made by foreign capital.  Since the Good Friday Agreement, American corporations alone have invested close to £312bn in the Republic; that is equivalent to 56 years of the British Government’s annual subvention to keep Northern Ireland afloat.

·         “At the moment, the Republic’s budget deficit is 1% of GDP.  If Northern Ireland had to pay for itself in the morning, the budget deficit would be 22% of GDP.”

There are also reports about European countries competing to attract financial services which want to leave the UK and move to an EU country.   

Ireland, it appears is in the forefront not least because of the English language.   

A UK financial journalist states that Ireland’s economy is surging on the basis of a big business exodus from London.[xiv]  Patrick Collinson reports that in 2017 Ireland will be Europe’s fastest growing economy – for the fourth year in a row.

He presents some additional statistics for comparison of the economies of UK and Ireland.   

For example,

·         average pay is £26,200 in the UK and £33,900 in Ireland;

·         economic growth in the UK was 1.8% in 2016, forecast to fall to 1.7% in 2017; the equivalent figures for Ireland are 5.1% in 2016 with a 4.8% forecast for 2017;

·         unemployment is 4.5% in the UK compared to 6.6% in Ireland; and

·         house price inflation in the UK is 2.9% compared to 11.7% in Ireland.

Synthesis

The citizens of the United Kingdom, Ireland and particularly those who live in Northern Ireland deserve a fresh conversation about the impact of Brexit on its high-maintenance nation.  

Local people need to set aside the “default” position that every political decision revolves around an unwritten constitution.  

It’s time to examine the empirical evidence with objectivity, without prejudice.

Northern Ireland’s citizens can step back and consider if doing nothing and maintaining the status quo remains the best option for Northern Ireland in a rapidly changing world.

Rather than thinking about ourselves alone and short-term, perhaps the answer lies in a focus on our legacy for future generations.

©Michael McSorley 2017

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[i] Belfast Telegraph 7 February 2017 Gail Walker.  http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/gail-walker/trump-brexit-isis-we-discuss-everything-but-our-excuse-for-a-political-system-is-off-the-agenda-35429280.html

[ii] BBC 3 The Billion Pound Party Stacey Dooley Investigates http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p05b5w4x/stacey-dooley-investigates-the-billion-pound-party

[iii] Irish Times Fintan O’Toole 17 January 2017 http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-dup-must-be-punished-for-its-brexit-folly-1.2938690

[iv] The Guardian Fintan O’Toole 24 June 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/northern-irish-peace-sacrificed-english-nationalism

[v] BBC NI Newsline 22 February 2017 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-39047420

[vi] Matthew Parris The Spectator magazine http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/for-the-first-time-in-my-life-i-feel-ashamed-to-be-british/

[vii] Matthew Parris The Times 29 July 2017 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-conservatives-are-criminally-incompetent-zbnppmx92

[viii] RTE News 24 Feb 2017 http://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0223/854744-brexit/

[ix] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40799475

[x] Belfast Telegraph editorial 7 August 2017 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/editors-viewpoint/varadkars-nuanced-brexit-speech-timely-36005251.html

[xi] The Guardian 16 August 2017 Fintan O’Toole https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/16/uk-government-border-proposals-ireland-brexit-position-paper

[xii] QPOL 11 July 2017 http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/irish-border-oxymoron/

[xiii] Belfast Telegraph 26 June 2017 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/demographics-are-shifting-towards-a-united-ireland-we-must-have-a-plan-35865222.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjIwMDAwMDE1Yy1lNDE2LTNhODMtODk5My0xYTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACRkZWY0NmQ5NC0zYjFkLTQ0N2QtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjY2TaACRhM2I1NTg0My00NDAyLTRjOWYtODcyYi00ODBjM2E4YjkwOTN9BNewfyzCCO0ssuf9aXiOz6ePcjM6TmKvZye2T-jPCQ

[xiv] Observer 6 August 2017 Patrick Collinson Guardian money editor.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/06/brexit-fuelled-boom-dublin-celtic-tiger-roars-again