Happy New Year
In the feelgood aftermath of the joyous festive season and New Year greetings, the contrasts as January proceeds could hardly be more stark or gloom-laden. More particularly, it's impossible not to be taken aback and distressed by what's happening in America and concerned about what may occur subsequently.
Wildfires
Viewed from the eastern side of the Atlantic, the sight of the United States being overwhelmed and unable to deal with a climate emergency, citizens calling it "like Armageddon," is not what we expect from the world's biggest economy.
It's not as if wildfires are a new occurrence there. In fact, they have become more regular and more menacing in places like California. Rather than adopting a consensual style of leadership at a time of national crisis, some referring to its apocolyptic scale, the President-elect accuses prominent Demrocats like the State Governer and the Mayor of Los Angeles of "gross incompetence (1)." Perhaps the aggressive rhetorical flourish reflects his buoyancy from a fresh new mandate.
There may or may not be merit in his argument. Time will tell and perhaps a public inquiry of the type advocated for other jurisdictions by his associate Elon Musk will investigate the assertions by his boss. Questions arise about the authorities' preparedness, the White House's regard for environmental science, policy about financing public services, and so on.
In his first term as President, Mr Trump withdrew the USA from its international obligations agreed in the Paris climate accord. His new mandate promises similar policy actions to come - unless the Californian catastrophe changes recalcitrant attitudes.
Clean air
Yesterday morning in marked contrast to sunny California the weather in Belfast was a different kind of gorgeous - sunny here as in LA and dry, but very cold at subzero, no flames. A perfect day for an envigorating walk. And, believe it or not, today there was no obvious sign of acrimony that has blighted us in the past. Peace and quiet combined; and clean fresh air is good for you.
Prepared for the climatic elements, this walker was wrapped up warm to enjoy and cope with the sharp drop in temperatures. Awareness of the celebrated Billy Connolly's philosophy - that "there's no such thing as bad weather, only unsuitable clothing" - provides a good byline.
In less than 90 minutes out in the open air, I took more than 10,000 steps on a route that is 99% off-road, located within the city's boundaries, a scenic place designated as a park of regional importance, and home to ancient monuments like the neolithic/bronze age Giants Ring erected by my ancestors 5,000 years ago, surviving to the present day. Nature preserved with statutory protections and me walking in the footsteps of our pre-Celtic forbears (2).
It also provides an constructive escape from divisive political rhetoric, inspiring of creative thoughts too.
Giants Ring Belfast, Neolithic henge monument earthwork circle 200 metres wide built 2700BC
Greenland
The day before, when extending New Year greetings to a friend in England - Cumbria, that elevated peninsula in north-west England, he responded with what at first sounded like a non sequitur. He posed a rhetorcial question wondering about the lack of reaction to the incoming US President's speech. His particular concern was about the apparent silence of European nations to the new Administration's plan to govern and own Greenland.
Allowing time for my friend's observation to settle into my subconscious, an initial reaction was that any alleged silence cannot be taken as consent. Rather, it could well be that countries - as well as many citizens outside the USA - are flabbergasted, dumb-struck at the President-elect's suggestion that he would even countenance such an idea, never mind the use of force to achieve his aim. Perhaps another reason for initial silence may also be that Europe has no wish to import divisive rhetoric and to entertain threats to its sovereignty.
Another reaction was to think that adoption by a new President (America's first convicted felon in that role) of methods used elsewhere in recent years would be counter-intuitive. The example of what not to do comes from the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine by Russia. America's forcible take-over of Greenland would contrast glaringly with global condemnation of Russia's similsrly hostile act.
Apart from being the world's largest island Greenland is part of the European Union, meaning that the EU would not let outside nations attack its sovereign borders (3).
Stormy Daniels sentence hearing
In the New York Supreme Court hearing (10 January 2025) following his May 2024 conviction on 34 counts in the hush money case, Justice Juan Merchan has finally sentenced Mr Trump with an unconditional discharge (4). Whereas this sentence means no fines, no imprisonment and no probation, he reminded Mr Trump that "one power the (office) protections do not provide is the power to erase a jury verdict." He will take charge in the White House as a convicted felon.
Free trade
The President-elect has already - before he takes office on 18 January - announced the imposition of tariffs on trade imports from America's nearest neighbours, Canada and Mexico, as well as on China. Given the American Republican Party's support for business, free enterprise and capitalist economics, questions arise about the consistency of tariffs with free trading.
The economic flaw with the tariffs policy, as explained by a leading economist (5), is that a country can impose tariffs when it is owed money, but not when it owes money. He explains the American problem with reference to some eye-watering economic data. The US currently has the world's largest budget deficit, set to hit almost $2 trillion this year. Total US Government debt stands at $30.2 trillion, or 99% of Gross Domestic Product. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that the US owes the rest of the world about $14 trillion.
In everyday terms, American savings are unable to finance its own needs, its huge debt burden and its vulnerability to higher interest rates. If the world sold American bonds, US domestic interest rates would spike upwards (and in McWilliams words) "taking some of the bravado off the Maga swagger."
America will get what it has voted for. The USA is at a cross-roads. Its new Administration has a huge and expectant mandate to make America great again. What will that mean? The world awaits the results of the rhetoric.
© Michael McSorley 2025
References
1. BBC News 9 Jan 2025 "Total wipeout" Trump says democratic leaders' wildfire response shows "gross incompetence"
2. https://michaelmcsorleynature.blogspot.com/2014/12/lagan-valley-regional-park.html
3. The Guardian 8 Jan 2025 Germany and France warn Trump against use of force over Greenland
4. BBC News 10 Jan 2025 Kayla Epstein Trump reminded of unsuccessful immunity bid
5. The Irish Times 4 Jan 2025 Prof David McWilliams America needs the world more than it thinks, and that's no bad thing
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