Whereas the December message received a reply within 90 minutes, neither of these two follow-up messages has received a reply to date (5 March 2019).
This is the text of the 30 January message:-
Dear Mrs Pengelly
Arising
from last night's "victory" in the House of Commons and the new mandate
given to the PM after her volte-face, I have two important questions
for you, if I may please.
We conversed early last month about Brexit matters.
Given
today's comments by the Brexit Secretary of State Stephen Barclay that
he does not have a proposal for "the alternative arrangement" to the
backstop at the UK/EU land border, I would like to know what proposals
the DUP has to offer in supply and/or in confidence to the PM.
You will have heard the Independent Member for North Down tell the PM that "alternative arrangement" is nebulous.
If the PM reopens the Withdrawal Deal with no alternative operable plan to posit, her visit could be without realistic purpose.
In
chiding the PM previously for wasting time, your party leader and party
members were noticeably trenchant both in tone and in substance with
their criticism; from which it follows that the DUP would be equally
critical if she were to waste time all over again.
In
interviews last month, your party leader was emphatic in advising
voters that the DUP has a backstop alternative which would satisfy the
requirements of HM Government's policy to retain a frictionless seamless
invisible land border between the EU and the United Kingdom.
How
you can reconcile this objective with the Brexit pledge to take back
control of the UK's land (and other borders) remains mysterious.
Secondly,
in last night's Commons debate, the DUP Westminster leader presumed to
speak for people from all sides in Northern Ireland when he expressed
unsourced opposition to excoriating criticism from the SNP leader about
the tearing up of the Good Friday Agreement.
Given
that Northern Ireland voted by a clear majority to remain in the EU
based on empirical evidence, that four of our five parties campaigned to
remain, can you advise me of the basis of your party leader's mandate
to pontificate on everybody's behalf.
Lest
you are unaware, many people are genuinely concerned about
Westminster's capacity to act in the public interest, the growing
chances of No Deal, the impacts on our economy (not least agriculture
and agri-foods) and politics, unintended consequences and the future of
"our precious union."
In the absence of a reply, I wrote again to her on 18 February expanding on the final paragraph above. This more recent message draws on further evidence and analyses of Brexit and its impacts published in the first half of February.
On the date of sending her this new message, there were 39 days until Brexit Day (29 March). To underline the importance of empirical evidence, all sources used are referenced in footnotes with links at the foot of the message.
This below is my 18 February briefing to Mrs Pengelly MP.
In the absence of a reply, I wrote again to her on 18 February expanding on the final paragraph above. This more recent message draws on further evidence and analyses of Brexit and its impacts published in the first half of February.
On the date of sending her this new message, there were 39 days until Brexit Day (29 March). To underline the importance of empirical evidence, all sources used are referenced in footnotes with links at the foot of the message.
This below is my 18 February briefing to Mrs Pengelly MP.
Dear Mrs Pengelly
When I wrote to you on 5 December, you did me the honour
of a detailed reply within two hours. To
supplement my subsequent message three weeks ago, I write again in the light of
recent evidence.
At the end of January, the CBI quantified adverse impacts
from a no-deal Brexit for the UK and also for Northern Ireland. This month began
similarly, with the UK head of Danske Bank warning of dire consequences that a
no deal will cause for Northern Ireland.[i]
These predictions from CBI experts and Northern Ireland’s
biggest bank are not isolated examples. They amplify the statistical reports
and analyses from HM Treasury and the Bank of England published in November.
This month heralds more authoritative warnings.
On Feb 3 Richard Harrington, Minister for Business in the
Government that receives DUP support, wrote that[ii]:-
“manufacturers are stockpiling at the
fastest rate for 27 years – tying up capital that could otherwise be used for
research, training or investment. Manufacturers are being forced to ship orders
for delivery after Brexit day without knowing what paperwork to use or what
tariffs might be payable. And our retailers are warning of food shortages and
price rises. It’s little wonder that the Institute of Directors reports that a
third of businesses are preparing to move some or all of their
work to the EU, and that the Society of Motor Manufacturers and
Traders tells us that investment in the automotive
sector has slumped by 47%, while car production is at its lowest for five
years....
“..however bracing the
prospect of instant liberation from the EU may feel in abstract, that sentiment
won’t last long when confronted with the economic, legal and practical reality.
In the chaos that followed no deal, voters would turn on the Tory party, and
rightly so. A no-deal Brexit would
undermine all our efforts. It would entrench this country’s social and economic
divisions, not heal them. And it would turn a crisis into a catastrophe.”
EY,
the business consultancy, warns that Northern Ireland could slide into
recession with the loss of 11,400 jobs in 2020 alone as a result of a no-deal
Brexit[iii].
Its Economic Eye report predicts a fall in sterling leading to higher
prices. It adds that in the event of a
trade deal being reached between the UK and the EU
“..
growth in the United Kingdom as a whole and in Northern Ireland will still be
outpaced by the Republic. The Republic’s growth for 2018 is tipped
at 8.3%, though the rate will be more than halved to 3.9% this year, and 3.2%
in 2020. NI economic growth for 2018 is
estimated at 1.5% — slightly better than UK growth of 1.4% — but will slow to
0.9% and 1.2% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.”
On
the occasion of 50 days to go until the UK’s exit from the EU the Bank of
England reported on the UK economy’s growth prospects.[iv]
Its Governor spoke about the sharp fall in business investment in the “fog of
Brexit.” The Bank is further reducing
its already low growth forecast.
The
Office of National Statistics[v]
endorses the Bank’s warnings with new data demonstrating that adverse economic impacts
are already happening even before Brexit happens. In the final three months of 2018, production
of cars steel products and construction fell sharply. The UK’s GDP shrank by 0.4%
in December.
Brexiteers have previously dismissed the empirical evidence from
the Bank and also from HM Treasury as “project fear.” Your party’s Brexit spokesman has been
criticised[vi]
for leading the DUP to promote a no-deal Brexit. The comments were made by a former chairman
of South Belfast DUP. There are also
reports[vii]
that 20 Conservative members of the Cabinet will resign from the party in the
event of no deal.
And
yet, in a constituency where 68% of the electors voted Remain, your Westminster
leader asserts that no deal is better than a bad deal.[viii]
This claim is flabbergasting and ironic.
A party which has built its reputation since inception on bellicose
public speaking has taken to warning opponents to “dial down” their language. Where is his evidence to support the rhetoric;
does your party have experts or special advisors who know more than HM
Treasury, the CBI, the Bank of England, and the ONS combined?
It’s
one thing to dismiss facts summarily. Rebuttal
with robust counter evidence is something entirely different. I repeat my question: What facts sources and
analysis does the DUP have as a basis for its antagonistic campaign against
membership of the EU?
Your
5 December reply presented as a fact that the UK is the world’s 5th
largest economy based on GDP. Reference
to latest data reveals that it now lies in seventh place, being overtaken both
by India and France. The recent warnings
from the Bank of England and ONS corroborate the factors causing the UK’s slide
in rankings.
The
former editor of the Belfast Telegraph describes the prospect of a no-deal
Brexit[ix]
as
“Utter madness.... an
economic and social disaster....the DUP has been its own worst enemy enthused
over leaving the EU with little apparent influence over the Withdrawal
Agreement nor a viable plan to ensure an open border on this island...”
Your
electors did not vote for Brexit, they want you to represent their interests,
and they welcome the 20 years of openness that has replaced the hard border.
That old regimen incorporated, inter alia, customs checks whose existence has, rather
curiously, been denied by your party leader.
Should
you share that perverse opinion, you might care to brief yourself with the evidence-based
experience of a prominent British/Irish business leader. She spells out[x]
clearly the dangers of glib policy to have the insurance policy ejected. She articulates the overwhelming advantages of
insuring against the return of hard borders.
Brexiteers
in England and Wales have a mandate to take back control of borders. Your electors, however, those of us in South
Belfast and across Northern Ireland as a whole, oppose land borders between us
and the EU on this island. Not just
that, we vigorously reject any attempt to establish maritime borders down the
North Sea and between the UK and Continental Europe. Does the DUP seriously think that such
measures will benefit trade and our precious union?
Does
it really believe that turning the UK’s back on its nearest neighbours makes
business sense or that we can replace lost European trade by making deals in
remote places with repressive regimes? Suspicions
are growing about China’s influence (companies like Huawei); and arms sales promoted
by the UK Government to Saudi Arabia are responsible for famine in the Yemen.
I
asked you last month to explain what, if any alternative, your party is
proposing to replace the backstop. Our
regional newspaper has published an account[xi]
from an academic, an expert in Unionism.
He indicates that there are different opinions within the DUP about
which backstop option to back.
One
reason for the spectacular failure of the UK’s Government to agree on the terms
of its divorce from the EU is the fact that HM Parliament is riven with
divisions over what Brexit means. And
now it seems that the DUP is divided on the crunch issue of the UK/EU
backstop. Is it any wonder that Europe’s
leaders are exasperated with a Government which cannot command consent in its
own Parliament? Because it was the UK (not
the EU) which initiated the divorce that your party wants your Westminster
leader’s description of the EU as intransigent defies logic.
An
important legal issue raised in the referendum campaign was the European Arrest
Warrant. A central Brexit campaign demand
was that the UK cease all dealings with the European Court of Justice. Since 2004 the Arrest Warrant has been effective
in combating international crime such as terrorism and drug trafficking. Labour’s Keir Starmer (former DPP) articulated
the argument as a reason to Remain in the EU.
Now evidence is emerging of police concerns in the UK[xii]
for national security post-Brexit.
Your
party’s chief criterion for an acceptable Brexit is the maintenance of the
union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
And yet, it may be that those endeavours could produce the opposite
result. Influential people in HM
Government admit to be reconsidering that precious bond. Reports from reliable sources[xiii]
reveal that three Conservative members of HM Government’s Cabinet have
considered the prospect of a peoples vote on Irish unity.
A recent appraisal of David Cameron’s legacy[xiv]
says that he
“will always be the man
who wrecked the country in a clumsy attempt to save his party. At worst a bad Brexit could break not just
the economy but the union - giving Scotland new reasons to seek independence,
even pushing Northern Irish voters towards unification with the south – and the
political party system, if both Labour and the Tories are punished by voters
for enabling it.....”
However
anathematic that prospect would be for the DUP, it is undeniable that both the
Conservative and Labour Parties are split to smithereens about Brexit. There are reports that Conservatives want the
ERG (erstwhile allies of the DUP) expelled from the party; and Labour MPs have
quit the party. Female Remain MPs in
both parties are receiving police protection as a result of intimidation by “far
right activists[xv]”
with The Times speculating about the demise of the current 2-party system.
The
Kingdom wherein I have lived and worked over decades is anything but united
thanks to Brexit and its advocates to the detriment of social cohesion. The political spectacle of its smallest
“nation” is particularly unedifying. In
a massive change of philosophy from eras when its once powerful Unionist
administrations long told us to abide by majority rule, that principle is now being
betrayed by “Democratic Unionists” - ignoring the will of its own majority
which is to Remain in the EU.
And
its second party abrogates responsibility with absence that, arguably,
suits its bigger rival. What to do with the
two dominant parties? They pose as incompatible on the regional stage,
combining to make governance appear unviable despite the best efforts of the
UK, Ireland, the USA and the EU; and, worst of all, both of which
disenfranchise its electors on the larger stage.
This
is not the United Kingdom that people have tolerated and worked conscientiously
to make it a better place. You need to know that many are frightened of what
your party and its friends in Westminster are doing without empirical
justification and with no regard for its consequences.
The
opportunity beckons for you to support your constituents 69% of whom voted to retain
our EU membership. You would have further justification to do so by referring
to a wealth of evidence (see references below) which demonstrates that any Brexit and especially no
deal will contradict national and international interests.
Pending replies from her to both of the messages, it's important to keep track of events that have taken place in the interim. These raise further concerns about her party's stance on Brexit.
I will set them out in a separate post.
Pending replies from her to both of the messages, it's important to keep track of events that have taken place in the interim. These raise further concerns about her party's stance on Brexit.
I will set them out in a separate post.
References:-
[i]
Belfast Telegraph 1 Feb 2019
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/bank-warns-nodeal-brexit-biggest-risk-to-northern-ireland-economy-for-generation-37773679.html
[ii]
Observer 3 Feb 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/brexiters-deal-uk-firms-uncertainty-britain-european-union-business-sector
[iii]
Belfast telegraph 5 Feb 2019
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/over-11000-northern-ireland-jobs-would-go-if-theres-a-no-deal-brexit-ey-forecasts-37782107.html
[iv]
BBC News 7 Feb 2019 Bank forecasts worst year for UK since 2009 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47155537
[v]
BBC News 11 Feb 2019 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47196387
[vi]
Belfast Telegraph 13 Feb 2019
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-member-says-sammy-wilson-should-not-be-allowed-to-dictate-partys-brexit-stance-37812156.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE2OC1lNmMwLTUyMDctYTgzMC1jNzE2M2VkMGFiODHaACQwOTBhYTUzNC02NWEzLTQ3YzEtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYzPaACRjZjg4Mjc5Ny01YjFmLTQxZWYtOGIzYi0xNDJhN2Y4NjFmYWFbZNvgSj_xN3TiGRHSHIHEjSlTIYof5LaEoMTHoitGJw
[vii]
ITV News 16 February 2019
[viii]
Belfast Telegraph 16 Feb 2019
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/no-brexit-deal-is-better-than-bad-deal-dup-deputy-leader-tells-conference-37822392.html
[ix]
Belfast Telegraph Ed Curran 6 Feb 2019
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/ed-curran-still-time-to-save-island-of-ireland-from-utter-madness-of-nodeal-brexit-37786726.html
[x]
The Guardian 31 Jan 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/ireland-hard-border-brexit-backstop-good-friday-agreement?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR33JbsA4_to_3ab9kWw6dtKd0IFloCH26ZZIMUsWVeWBScQBgYKKX1pG6g
[xi]
Belfast Telegraph 9 Feb 2019 Jon Tonge
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/jon-tonge-dup-must-be-clear-whether-it-wants-backstop-rewritten-timelimited-or-flatout-rejected-37797643.html
[xii]
Irish Times 13 Feb 2019 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/no-deal-brexit-may-make-britain-less-safe-british-police-chief-warns-1.3789678
[xiii]
BBC News 8 Feb 2019 Brexit: Very Real Chance of Irish Unity Poll if No Deal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
[xiv]
Observer New Review 10 Feb 2019 Gaby Hinsliff “Seven Weeks Before We
leave the
EU Has Anybody Seen David Cameron?”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/10/david-cameron-profile-brexit-memoirs-weeks-before-we-leave-eu
[xv]
The Times 16 Feb 2019 p 14 Francis Elliott Political Editor “Swastikas are
painted on the office of female MP.” Also Leader “Party Poopers” p 31
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