The Brexit referendum 8 years on - implications for governance

Preamble

I attended a 5-week summer-term course delivered recently at Queens University Belfast intrigued by its title "Northern Ireland after Brexit: A Guide for the Perplexed." The other selling point was that it was delivered by the Brexit expert and head of Political Sociology Professor Katy Hayward with eloquent support from four of her colleagues. 

This short article is based on my assignment, using a "Q and A explainer" format, and submitted on 22 June. It highlights a particular influence on Britain’s decision to terminate its 43 year membership of Europe's union and closes with implications for governance.  

On which subject, it has some unintentional resonances with the Westminster General Election of 4 July 2024 and with elements of the campaigning.

Why and when did the U.K join Europe’s Economic Community?

June 2024’s ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of D-day provided poignant reminders of efforts to replace warmongering with peacebuilding across Europe.  Early post-World War 2 steps included the Council of Europe established in May 1949 and the European Convention on Human Rights in September 1953.  In March 1957 West Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg signed theTreaty of Rome to prompt integration and trade through economic growth.  This EEC was a common market based on the free movement of goods, people, services and capital (1).

It took until 1 January 1973, after the death of French President de Gaulle who had twice in the 1960’s vetoed Britain's membership, when the U.K. finally joined the EEC.   Edward Heath was Prime Minister.  Membership coincided with that of Denmark and Ireland.  Two years later, the renegotiated terms of entry formed the basis of the proposition to be put to the nation. The PM was Harold Wilson.  This was Britain’s first ever national referendum, historic in a sense.

There was debate about whether a referendum suits the U.K.’s governance protocols.  Some argued that Britain is not a republic; some emphasised that it has no written constitution.  The referendum proceeded.  A persuasive argument for joining was that “Britain was at that time, economically, the sick man of Europe (2).”

The impressive quality of parliamentary oratory played a part in gaining public trust, in informing decision-making. The pros and cons of the proposition’s evidence were vigorously contested by groups of senior Parliamentarians in full public view.  Unlikely alliances formed.  Most notably, the left wing of the Labour Party teamed up with the right wing of the Conservatives to oppose Britain’s continued membership of the EEC.  Joy for aspirant debaters to observe values being challenged, opinions being methodically teased out, all on our small TV sets.  On 5 June 1975, a majority of 67% voted to stay in Europe (3).

Describe the 2016 referendum context

Four decades later in February 2016 PM David Cameron announced the Government’s intention to put the U.K’s membership of the European Union to the nation in an “in/out” referendum (4). Despite his argument that leaving the E.U would “threaten our economic and national security,” six cabinet members declared immediate support for Brexit (5).  If the PM was himself perplexed by the breaking of party ranks, confidence prompted him to allow his MPs to choose which side of the argument to support.  He declared that the cherished national rule of “cabinet collective responsibility” would not apply to his Ministers on this issue (6).  CCR does not apply in Northern Ireland.

This voter’s baseline position before Brexit was neutral, eager to anticipate both sides in a return of evidence-based debate.  I was keen to know that elected leaders would act in the public interest. This would ensure that our children and grandchildren could be part of a thriving, outward-looking and safe place, prioritising the big issues ahead.  These include the economy, international relations, nature, national cohesion, health and all the public services.

Governance added soupçons of perplexity. Westminster’s European Referendum Act (December 2015) had been so enthusiastically passed by Parliament with overwhelming support that MPs set no threshold or minimum turnout.  This surprised many, not least because of Brexit’s potential constitutional impacts.

Why was the result perplexing?

Eight years after the vote which took place on 23 June 2016 and 17½ million people out of a total electorate of 46½million voted to leave (7), questions remain. The 51.9% “majority” of those who voted was 38% of the total electorate.

Judging from comments made by shrewd observers, the campaign’s result was determined on topics which had no bearing on datasets and expert analyses of the economy, security or the environment. Four days before the referendum an Irish journalist had described in The Observer newspaper how “English Nationalism” underpins Brexit (8). His analysis argued that it fails to meet four of the five characteristics of independence movements with its “inexorable logic” being a stand alone England.

In similar vein, translating the outcome into plain English, a seasoned journalist and former Conservative MP asserted in The Times that “the reliance of the Leave campaign upon resentment of foreigners, dislike of immigration and hatred of immigrants has been absolutely disgraceful. Anti-immigrant feeling won it for Leave and they know it…(9).”  Perplexing to discover that Westminster’s legislative enthusiasm did not think about race or nationalism as influences.

Reacting to Northern Ireland’s result which (like that in London and in Scotland) was to remain in the EU, First Minister Arlene Foster said that “we always knew this would happen since four of the five parties campaigned to remain.”  This prompted a thought that the undefined “we” did not really campaign, did not articulate a case supported by empirical evidence.  Yet the Office of First and Deputy First Minister has explicit guidelines about the imperative for policy-making to be evidence-based (10).  Scotland’s Government, for example, had produced 700 page support for its independence referendum (11).  No equivalent empirical case was published by Westminster about Brexit scenarios.

It soon became apparent that no prizes would be awarded this time around for debating prowess on either side. A repeat of 1975’s public speaking sparkle in 2016 was a lofty hope.  Social media “influencing” and “taking back control of our money, laws and borders” hadn't been invented fifty years ago.  Rather, it occurs that both camps in the referendum campaign preferred to perplex voters by abandoning factual debate and suppressing databases.

Remain, for instance, failed to endorse pre-referendum expertise articulated by institutions like the Bank of England (12), HM Treasury (13) and the IMF (14).  Leave disavowed empirical evidence from economists and scientists whose advice it criticised with slogans such as “project fear.”  One famously used a quip about the country being sick of experts (15).  After the result, Leave admitted telling lies about extra funding that would be available for the NHS (16).

What happens when evidence is dismissed?

The effects of sidelining evidence appear from examples of impacts on Northern Ireland’s NHS budget. Recent reports from the General Medical Council reveal that many consultants and junior doctors are transferring to Ireland’s HSE attracted by better pay and conditions (17). Moreover, bleak warnings by Stormont’s outgoing and new Health Ministers that the inadequate budget available from the Exchequer will harm patients alarm our citizens (18).

Westminster’s own forecasts produced both before and adjusted after the referendum by the Office for Budget Responsibility (19) (established by Westminster in 2010) went largely unheeded by Britain’s legislators.  It included pre-referendum warnings about potential negative impacts of Brexit on key indicators such as the exchange rate and GDP growth; with post-result estimates of alternative scenarios for future trade and migration relationships with the EU.  The OBR subsequently forecast that the 1246-page post-Brexit EU/U.K Trade and Cooperation Agreement “will cost the U.K. 4% in permanently lost GDP (20).”

The paradox of legislators staunchly opposing an “Irish Sea border” while ignoring adverse impacts of installing new trade barriers on the U.K’s borders with 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland’s open border) is bewildering.  Hearing no position taken on exit consequences likely to disrupt the quantitative and qualitative success in removing Europe’s sick man moniker off British shoulders felt oxymoronic.  This was a self-imposed rejection of the union with our nearest and biggest trading partner paradoxically by unionists, no rationale provided.

To understand the trauma of “Brexplexity” one read commentaries from experts, culminating in the composition of blogs published over the eight years (21).  In retrospect, this was therapy driven by apolitical civic duty.  Several articles referenced other empirical evidence that seems to have been ignored or suppressed.  One blog, by coincidence given the in-class comment about Brexit being a boon for cartoonists, covers the demise of the May Premiership using a cacophony of cutting satirical images, words being almost tautological (22).

Other examples include -

Is Brexit part of a wider pattern?

The above examples show that Brexit is not confined to a self-contained cocoon.  Add recent governance cases arising from Public Inquiries into that mix. They show authorities again having a casual relationship with the truth.  None end well, reputations have been ruined and lives lost.

The Infected Blood Inquiry report (23), for example, describes the scandal as “a calamity that could largely have been avoided.”  The report exposed "a catalogue of failures" in which 30,000 patients "suffered miserably" after being infected with HIV and hepatitis C as a result of being treated with contaminated blood between the 1970s and early 1990s.  It found a lack of transparency by the NHS and Government which meant that the truth was “hidden for decades to save face and expense (24).”  As a result, a high price must now be paid.  

In front of a shocked House of Commons, PM Sunak and Opposition leader Starmer apologised insisting that huge compensation claims will be met.  This is regardless of pre-existing pressure on public finances.  Funding of claims will be carefully observed. 

 

 

Strikingly similar themes of dishonesty by authorities have emerged from the ongoing Post Office Public Inquiry (25) with expert investigators “dismissed for getting too close to the truth.”

Similar heart-breaking outcomes have been reported at the Covid Inquiry.

Where do these scandals leave the vaunted strategy of deregulation?  The hiding by public authorities of evidence and truth is surely incompatible with the British values proudly proclaimed by Brexit campaigners whereever those may or may not be documented.  

Given the perplexity of Brexit and the shocking evidence emerging from these Public Inquiries, one wonders if there exists a will to make integrity in regulating “the world’s sixth largest economy” a priority for the U.K’s incoming Government?

 

© Michael McSorley 2024


References

1. EU History 1945-59 https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/history-eu/1945-59_en

2. Uni of Cambridge Gresham College The 1975 Referendum, Learning from History https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/learning-history-1975-referendum-on-europe

3. https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/legislativescrutiny/parliament-and-europe/overview/britain-and-eec-to-single-european-act/

4. BBC News EU referendum timeline 20 Feb 2016 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33141819

5. The Guardian 20 Feb 2016 EU referendum to take place 23 June D Cameron confirms

6. The Institute for Government Nov 2019 Explainer https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/collective-responsibility

7. http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

8. Fintan O’Toole The Observer 19 June 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/18/england-eu-referendum-brexit?CMP=share_btn_fb

9. Matthew Parris The Spectator July 2016 http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/for-the-first-time-in-my-life-i-feel-ashamed-to-be-british/

10. https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/articles/what-economic-appraisal-and-when-it-required#toc-0

11. Scotland’s Future. Your Guide to an independent Scotland. 648pp. November 2013

12. BBC News 12 May 2016 Brexit vote may spark recession, BoE https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36273448

13. HM Treasury April 2016 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f7e7ded915d74e33f6c77/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

14. BBC News 13 May 2016 Brexit pretty bad to very very bad, IMF https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36284200

15. Financial Times Henry Mance 3 June 2016 Britain has had enough of experts, says Gove https://www.ft.com/content/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c

16. The Guardian 10 Sept 2016 Toby Helm https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/10/brexit-camp-abandons-350-million-pound-nhs-pledge

17. Irish Times 20 April 2024 Seanín Graham Toxic culture, bureaucracy & better pay is pushing North’s doctors to move South

18. BBC NI News 3 June 2024 Hospital beds could be cut https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg33qvv00n2o

19. OBR Discussion Paper no 3 Brexit and the OBR’s Forecasts Oct 2018

20. OBR March 2021 https://obr.uk/box/impact-of-the-brexit-trade-agreement-on-our-economy-forecast/

21. https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/5930599165673754705

22. https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2019/04/brexit-lampooned.html

23. Infected Blood Inquiry Report 20 May 2024 https://www.infectedbloodinquiry.org.uk/reports/inquiry-report

24. Irish Times 25 May 2024 Seanín Graham The British government held off as long as it could hoping that the lie would die with the victims

25. BBC News 18 June 2024 Post Office sabotaged Horizon probe, says investigator https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyddlynqlryo


Footnote:-
 

This Brexit series (2016-2014) consists of the following 22 articles to date:-

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal 7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum? 23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU? 22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022
 

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023

State of the Nation 14 Oct 2023

Stormont Assembly back after 2 year boycott 8 Feb 2024

Stormont Assembly back after 2 year boycott

Everybody I know in Northern Ireland is relieved and quietly pleased to see the return of the Stormont Assembly with devolved government on 3 February 2024, the end of a 2-year protest by the DUP.  

Should we celebrate?

Safeguarding the Union

Having led his party out of regional government in protest at the Brexit trade deal agreed between Westminster and the EU, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has now garnered plaudits for terminating the boycott.  Particular praise has been awarded for his emotional calling out of threats including accusations of betrayal from hard-liners ironically described as "loyalists."  In recommending the 80-page "Safeguarding the Union" deal between the Westminster government and the DUP (1), he emphasised the importance of "banking the gains" made by his party.

The question of gains and losses for other parties or for the community may or may not be ominous.

What the DUP has in mind includes a range of changes to the administration of trading checks and processes on goods traded between NI and GB.  The deal includes the promise of £3.3 billion in financial support from the U.K government.  This is presumably intended to make up for the prolonged interruption of regional government along with an allocation for pay increases to public sector staff whose living standards have fallen well below those of counterparts in GB.  

As an early indication of their agreed priorities, both the First and Deputy First Ministers have been quick out of the blocks in calling for a significant increase in that financial support.

What the DUP presents as gains arising from their prolonged and exclusive negotiating sessions with Westminster might be described by some as catching up with our compatriots, or by others as insufficient to make up for ground lost and for pain suffered through delay and dithering.

One knight of the realm's gains might alternatively read as coming at the expense of financial loss and economic pain for working people.  Remember that many of the latter are the same groups who were applauded, not least by politicians, for heroism in getting the region through the pandemic of Covid19.

Overwhelmingly, the general public welcomes the return of regional democracy, hesitant perhaps to heap unequivocal, if any, praise on those who have aped the same tactic they condemned when used previously by Sinn Féin to deprive the region of its institutions.  Many dispute the DUP leader's recent assertion to striking trade unionists that his boycott has had a mandate.  Questions arise such as

• Who exactly voted for the paralysis of our Assembly?  
• How has the Assembly's suspension benefitted democracy?  
• What economic gains have the shut-down delivered for the regional economy over the last 24 months?  
• What about the damage done to the National Health Service where Northern Ireland has the longest waiting-lists in the U.K., never mind the NHS's other festering problems (2)?  And 
• what about the reputational damage done across the UK to the image of a region whose biggest pro-union party's absence has, ironically, prompted questions about the region's viability as a self-governing political unit?
  

The very title of the agreed deal "belies an underlying fear over the vulnerability of that union," as one commentator puts it (3). The DUP's insistance at different times during the void that action was possible to address problems because regional Ministers were still in place, or at other times that problems can be settled by Westminster - these claims were and are specious.  A party, whose primary titular adjective flaunts democratic credentials proudly and yet ignores its own masthead unapologetically consigned its entire electorate into painful oblivion for 730 long days.

As a protest over the terms of the UK's exit from the EU the boycotting party ignored the actual mandate of Northern Ireland which, by a clear majority, had voted to remain part of the Union with Europe.  In the aftermath of Brexit referendum, the DUP's then party leader acknowledged that she knew, with four of the region's five parties campaigning against Brexit, that Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the EU.  

Yet the party has persisted in abandoning the lifelong unionist mantra of adhering to majority rule. They furthermore ignored the self-professed and principal characteristic of traditional unionism - loyalty - by refusing to accept the decision of the Mother of Parliament's parliamentary decision to sign up to the trade deal with the EU.

The boycott of Stormont has damaged trust in the party and in the political process of democratic accountability in Northern Ireland.  The party leader's recent announcement of receiving his party's authority to return to Stormont, welcome as it is, lacked acknowledgement or apology for damage inflicted to our hard-won regional democracy, to a faltering economy, to the fragile peace process, and to our reputation.  

Brexit was always regarded by the majority, the pro-EU advocates here, as a threat to economic prosperity and to trade, based on empirical evidence.  Withdrawal from the EU was also seen as an undermining of the peace process because of its detrimental implications for Britain's land border with Ireland. 

Potential ending commitment to all-island economy

On which subject, concerns have been raised discreetly about Safeguarding the Union's paragraphs 114 to 116 in the new command paper.  In particular, provisions for ending all British Government commitment to protect the all-island economy in Ireland as agreed with the EU in the 2018 Brexit Withdrawal Act may constitute a unilateral resiling by Westminster from that Act.  If the UK legislates accordingly, Northern Ireland could forfeit its unique trading position with access both to the UK and EU markets for goods.  The eyes of the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lit up brightly when he himself emphasised this as a major benefit a year ago .

One wonders sotto voce, without sounding alarm bells over potential hazards, about the status of a Westminster-DUP deal whose full details may not have been fully agreed with other interests.

More Westminster finance plea

Perhaps the DUP leader's oversights in acknowledging the damage inflicted by the boycott might yet be addressed by him soon, or by his successor.  It could be regarded as politic to do so early, to treat it as a priority.  Such acknowledgement of the damage caused and its recognition as a problem to be addressed would be a creditable starting point to ensure that action is taken.  It might also bolster his (and the First and Deputy First Ministers') case to plead for even more cash from the Westminster exchequer. 

Members of the Assembly must be aware of the broadly positive reaction from across the community to news of their return to work and hopes for a successful outcome.  If they can capitalise on that wellspring of support and work together, Stormont will be better-placed to exploit the trading benefits of dual market access (4), to tackle other big issues of the economy (5), the climate and nature (6), the arts and education, the health service, community relations, migration and more - but from a stronger base.

 

© Michael McSorley 2024

References:-

1. HM Government 31 January 2024 Command Paper 1021, Safeguarding the Union https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65ba3b7bee7d490013984a59/Command_Paper__1_.pdf 

2.  The National Health Service 30 November 2023                                                                 https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-nhs.html

3. Northern Ireland reaches a turning point with volatile politics set to play out on a new pitch. Freya McClements The Irish Times 3 February 2024 p5

4. BBC Northern Ireland John Campbell 8 Feb 2024 Irish trade to GB now subject to post-Brexit rules.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cldqzk3pey6o

5. BBC Northern Ireland John Campbell 8 Feb 2024 NI economy: Forecasted growth in 2024 less than 1%. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68233998 

6.  BBC Northern Ireland Louise Cullen 7 Feb 2024 Solving Lough Neagh problems high on agenda - Muir. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68228276

 

 

This Brexit series consists of the following 21 articles to date:-

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022 

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022 

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023 

State of the Nation 14 Oct 2023

The NHS

Background

It's sad to see the cherished institution which is the U.K's National Health Service reported so regularly in the news for all the wrong reasons.

At the same time its crucial role in supporting the U.K.'s economy has never been more apparent and newsworthy.  At the moment there are regular headline-grabbing accounts of disagreements between scientists, Ministers and ex-Ministers over health policy at the Public Inquiry into the Government's handling of the Covid pandemic.  

And then there is the big debate about all sorts of related national issues (1) including record waiting lists reaching 7.5 million this summer and about so many NHS staffing posts being unfilled.  And as an indication of how serious the waiting is in Northern Ireland, it is reported (2) that in November 2023 there are almost 429,000 of its people waiting for a first hospital appointment as an outpatient, with over 83% waiting for more than nine weeks.    

Set against these issues, the daily frustrations of citizens queuing to get an ordinary appointment with a GP, important as they are, seem like a low priority.

The organisation's well-documented problems along with issues of understaffing and under-funding take on an extra layer of seriousness in Northern Ireland where there is no regional Government operating to monitor the health of its economy and its citizens.  One party's protest about a Brexit deal, which most people and the four other parties rejected at referendum, works against the express will of the people, against the public interest and to the detriment of the region's reputation and well-being.  

Older issues have become more critical and new ones are not addressed as political responsibility is abrogated.  Take these examples.

Neurological failure

In 2018, the National Health Service witnessed Northern Ireland's largest recall of patients. More than 5,000 patients whom the consutant neurologist, Michael Watt, had treated for stroke, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis were recalled.  The chairman of an independent inquiry concluded in June 2022 that the governing Health Trust's "failures ensure that patterns of the consultant's work were missed for a decade."  

Indictment is another word.  Following a medical tribunal's finding that his professional performance was "unacceptable,"  Mr Watt was finally "struck off" in November 2023.  

The process continues its weary way.  Reports (3) that the police are opening an investigation into his clinical practices form the latest highlighting of a bad news story for our beleagured National Health Service.

Women's health - cervical smear testing

Another example involves women's health and reveals substantially more recalls than Mr Watt's case necessitated.  Some 17,000 women are being recalled for review of cervical screening smear tests following an investigation into their "accuracy" at a Northern Ireland Health Trust.  Apparently, there were concerns about "persistent underperformance" of some screeners over 13 years.  An Inquiry by the Royal College of Pathologists concluded that the women are "at risk of missed opportunities to detect and treat precancerous changes."

In mid-November 2023 the Trust opened clinics for repeat smear tests for those whose previous slide is either unavailable or had taken place more than 10 years ago.  It seems that repeat smear tests cannot be offered to all 17,000 patients "due to capacity issues in the U.K. (4)."  Coincidentally, on the same day the recall clinic started, it was announced that Ireland is on target to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040.

Dr Gabriel Scally, Professor of Public Health at Bristol University (and born in Belfast) has commented on the stark differences in approach to women's health between the two national governments.  He says that this latest NHS scandal is symptomatic of a dysfunctional health system where women are being "failed" by a "completely out-of-date" screening service. 

Unlike in Great Britain and Ireland where there is primary HPV (human papilloma-virus) screening, Northern Ireland uses a slower cytology-based system with slides being examined under microscope; and thousands of patients are subsequently backlogged facing six-month delays for a smear test result.  Dr Scally describes the HPV test as very accurate in picking up the HPV that causes cervical cancer.

Abuse of vulnerable adults 

The third example relates to the long-standing tale of alleged abuse of patients at Muckamore Abbey Hospital in County Antrim.  A Public Inquiry into the abuse was established back in 2005, with hearings still continuing in November 2023.  The Inquiry website states that "it wishes to hear from current or former staff or from a former patient, relative, carer or a member of the public who has information that will assist the inquiry."  

The last report (5) which I read about the Muckamore Abbey Hospital case says that more than 70 staff have been suspended and dozens arrested at the facility - which treats people with severe learning difficulties and mental health issues.  A separate police investigation into the abuse of vulnerable adults is also underway.  

As the man says, you couldn't make this stuff up.  These are very upsetting stories, to say the least. And in all of these examples, one party is disabling Stormont from taking part, with Westminster seemingly unable or unwilling to break the deadlock.

England

Nothern Ireland's NHS is not alone in having to face up to serious problems.

BBC2's Newsnight has reported last year (2022) about allegations of mistakes and a "Mafia-like" culture at England's busiest Health Trust in Birmingham.  The programme now reports (6) that its investigation led to the launch of 3 Inquiries and the subsequent implementation of changes at that Trust.  

Now in November 2023, the programme's NHS investigations unit  has uncovered very similar allegations being levelled at the Royal Sussex County Hospitals.  Staff have claimed that unheeded warnings and the existence of a toxic culture of cover-up led to numerous unnecessary deaths and maiming of patients.  Police are now investigating. Sounds familiar.

New RCN Book

I conclude on a positive note.  

A magnificent tribute to our nurses has just been published by the Royal College of Nursing Northern Ireland (7).  A lavish new book entitled "Nurses' Voices from the Second World War The Ireland Connection" tells the stories of nurses from both jurisdictions across Ireland "who were willing to put their lives at risk caring for their patients on the home front and on overseas front lines."  

 

This largely undiscovered (until now) and exhaustively-researched story reveals the harrowing background events where many nurses died in tragic circumstances at sea and even as prisoners of war.  

It puts everything else, not least our contemporary concerns about the state of the world, in perspective.  And it provides a salutory reminder - maybe one is needed - as to a big part of the rationale for establishing a National Health Service after violent and senseless global conflicts.

 

© Michael McSorley 2023

 

References

1.  https://michaelmcsorleyeconomy.blogspot.com/2023/10/state-of-nation.html

2. BBC News 30 November 2023 Marie-Louise Connolly "Waiting lists: Woman waited for three years for telephone consultation"

3. BBC News 28 November 2023 "Michael Watt: Police to investigate former neurologist" 

4. Irish Times 25 November 2023 "Shortcomings of cervical screening in the North revealed by review of smear tests" Seanin Graham

5. Belfast Telegraph 7 September 2023 "Muckamore Abbey abuse inquiry unlawfully requested medical records without notifying patients, court hears"

6.  Alan Erwin BBC2 Newsnight 29 November 2023

7. "Voices from the Second World War The Ireland Connection." Researched by the RCN History of Nursing  Network, collated by Margaret Graham and Seán Graffin. Proceeds to charity

State of the Nation

The London editor of a national newspaper has penned a widely-referenced article (1) pondering the state of the nation, covering all of the current issues of the day.  His thorough piece is all about the worries gripping the people of the UK at present.  

It resonates not only because of the compelling evidence presented but also because the Prime Minister's simultaneous decision in September to postpone the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars had prompted my article about u-turns in the Government's policies (2).

Given the gravity of the journalist's analysis, his article presents key findings which, being buried on page 14 of his newspaper, deserve a wider audience.  The London correspondent interprets the PM's action as his way - using his own carefully-crafted words - 

    "to capture a sense of diclinism that lately has wrapped itself around Britain like a wet heavy         blanket."  

He quotes Mr Sunak's own similarly gloom-laden line that

     "Britain has stumbled into a consensus about the future of our country that nobody seems          happy with."

Those words come across as a sorry epitaph on 13 years of Government.  So, what exactly is gnawing at the heart of Britain?  The evidence offered by the journalist to support the PM's case includes the following facts and figures:- 

• the U.K's post-Brexit stasis is evident from "anaemic" economic growth and because of national debt at its highest level for 60 years; 
• living standards are in the middle of their biggest two-year fall since the 1950's because of inflation; 
• infrastructure is creaking; 
• industrial relations are sour; 
• national morale is low after years of "political psychodrama;" 
• Britain's NHS is "a national embarrassment, festooned with strikes, escalating waiting times and a balooning bill that could swamp its public finances;" and 
• the country's ill-at-ease sense plays out in culture-war debates on issues ranging from trans rights to climate change.

On the positive side and presumably for the sake of balanced reporting, he reminds us that 

• Britain remains the world's sixth biggest economy meaning that a bounceback may be possible from the "flagging productivity" that is hindering growth; 
• it is "a bastion of Parliamentary democracy" with multi-ethnic front benches; 
• Britain has led backing for Ukraine against Russian invasion; and 
• despite Brexit strife, relations with Europe have improved. 

On the negative side, he quotes 

• Prof Anand Menon of Kings College London who dismisses (at length and emphatically) the domestic view about Britain being world-beaters; and he quotes 
• Prof Tim Bale, Queen Mary University of London who argues that the Conservative Party has lost its place as a stable centre-right force, exemplified by the PM's "pivoting Britain away from ambitious climate change strategy," and that "our governing politics have gone off the scale."

The article quantifies the nation's problems with statistical economic data, for example, to illustrate that 

• the economy is the top issue at 37% of those polled by Ipsos in September, more than twice as many who mentioned climate. High inflation/cost of living came second at 30%, ahead of the NHS and immigration
  
• the U.K's record national debt, £2.5 trillion has recently topped 100% of the size of the economy, its GDP, for the first time since the 1960's.  The national interest bill of more than £100 billion has doubled in a year
• he quotes the British economist Gerard Lyons who says that Britain is in "a debt trap" where interest rates (5.25%) exceed growth rates (barely 0.5%) - "something has to give"
  
• the Centre for Policy Studies say the cost of an ageing population will be more problematic.  ONS data, for example, predict a rise in England from 18.2% to 20.7% in over-65's in the decade to 2028
• NHS waiting lists grew to a record 7.3 million this summer, at a time when 150,000 NHS posts remain unfilled.  Boosting immigration, however, to provide NHS employees runs counter to the net legal migration target of 600,000.  Yet, as the article demonstrates, Britain's net migration figures have doubled since before Brexit.

The article's exposition of the actual scale of the U.K's national debt run up by a Government in power since 2010 is not, one suspects, widely known and appreciated.   The same goes for the gravity of difficulties faced by the NHS, including enormous and growing waiting lists as well as recruitment problems.  

 

The article doesn't have time or space to mention the economic and other problems faced by constituent parts of the union.  Because of a lengthy protest by the DUP against Westminster's EU Brexit deal, Northern Ireland has no devolved administration in place to address problems which have arisen or have become more complex since (or possibly because of) the sacking of the Stormont Assembly.   These include a worrying range of urgent economic, environmental, policing, health service, labour relations, drugs, constitutional and other issues.  The latter include the parlous state of the region's budget and finances.  Responsibility is being abrogated.

Whatever shade of autumnal gloom PM Sunak has identified as prevalent in GB requiring him to turn policies around at will, the mood is darker and more severe across the Irish Sea.  The repeated absence of devolved government raises questions about the very viability of the region as a political unit; and in the context of serious conflicts abroad, it also piles untimely pressure on the fragility of Northern Ireland's hard-won peace process. 

If the PM is correct and electorates in Scotland England and Wales are disenchanted with the state of the nation's economics and politics following Brexit (3), one's inclinations suggest that those same feelings are magnified somewhat in Northern Ireland. 

© Michael McSorley 2023

References

1. "What's eating Britain? The issues gripping its soul" Mark Paul London Correspondent The Irish Times 7 October 2023

2. "Electric cars and climate change" 30 September 2023 https://michaelmcsorleynature.blogspot.com/2023/09/electric-cars-and-climate-change.html

3. This series consists of the following 20 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022 

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022 

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023

Will the Windsor Framework get Brexit done?

Decision time

Getting Brexit Done has proved to be an elusive quest, now two years on from that spurious claim - and counting.

So, on 27 February in a display of carefully-planned choreography, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen co-presented the Windsor Framework.  Described by the PM as "a decisive breakthough" this is the UK/EU deal "to replace" Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol. 

"Ditch," for the record, has always been the alternative verb of action demanded by the protocol's outspoken vilifiers. 

Apart from resolving the protocol's complications, some will say flaws, the PM's wider agenda is "to reset relations with Europe" avoiding potential for a trade war.  He hopes also that doing so will let Britain adjust to the exit by resuming collaboration with Europe.  This would include Brexit's fallout casualties such as scientific research.  The big prize would be the restoration of regional government at Stormont.

For added appeal the announcement was endorsed by the monarch when the EC President had tea with King Charles III and a warm welcome to Windsor Castle.  Criticism, paradoxically from prominent DUP leaders, greeted the happening of that meeting.  

Undeterred and to drive home the charm offensive, on 26 March "the Majesties" will begin a 6-day visit to France and Germany to attempt to strengthen the UK's relations with Europe post-Brexit (1).  Its economic rationale appears well-grounded given the limited impact of Britain in securing trade deals across the globe post-Brexit.

Forty-eight hours before the framework's launch, the journalist and former Conservative MP Matthew Parris supplied guidelines, like a list of home truths, to support the PM.  His article exhorted Mr Sunak to be "bold," to exploit his advantage "that no Conservative MP wants an election." Parris's argument (2) included this array:- 

• the ERG (European Research Group of Conservative MPs) and the DUP both know that even in Northern Ireland wrecking the Protocol is unpopular; 
• the DUP have almost no support over the water and little support in the Commons; 
• they know they are widely disliked; 
• they know their suspension of power-sharing is hurting their own voters; and
  
• they know that playing the wrecking card could only bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether.

The day after after announcing the Framework, the PM visited Northern Ireland to promote the new plan.  Speaking to factory staff in the DUP leader's constituency, Mr Sunak enthused about Northern Ireland's unique benefits of having access both to the UK's internal market as well as to that of the EU.  Brexiteer eyebrows were raised as the PM, himself a Brexiteer, described Northern Ireland as being in "the world's most exciting economic zone."  

Let's reflect on the events that have preceeded the Windsor Framework.

Post-Brexit talks

Following the UK's June 2016 referendum, the first of the two phases of exit negotiations culminated in October 2019 with the Withdrawal Agreement.  It included no hard border in Ireland and protection of the Good Friday Agreement (3).  The second phase concluded on a significant date in British history.  24 December 2020 marks the announcement of the country's divorce from the EU with the proud PM Johnson proclaiming it as “a good deal for the whole of Europe.” 

The signing up to detailed arrangements, named the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (4) took place on 30 December 2020.  That means that It took four and a half years following the referendum before the UK PM was in a position to sign the final deal.  At last Brexit had its painstakingly-negotiated agreement in the form of a hefty 1246-page document.   

By the by, European nations which did not ever seek a UK exit, as well as British places like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted with majorities against Brexit might dispute the PM's good deal for all of Europe assertion.  For voters in Northern Ireland, for instance, who wanted to remain in the EU the only rationale for the protocol was and is the form of Brexit sought and agreed by the Conservative Government with DUP support; had Brexit not been mandated by Great Britain, there would have been no Brexit and no protocol.  

Whereas the protocol continues to be an existential bane for many, it is not so for many other Northern Ireland's voters.  If, however, the PM gets his way and the Windsor Framework is approved by Parliament, the new arrangement will continue Northern Ireland's mandate by retaining barrier-free access to the EU market for goods.

BrexitTrade deal

A maxim during the prolonged negotiation process repeated that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."  PM Johnson's claims to have got Brexit done as 2020 turned into 2021 started to unravel very soon after he signed the papers.  Heated rows began about the checking of goods coming from GB into Northern Ireland and the agreed trading arrangements across the century-old constitutional border between the UK and the EU in Ireland.  

One has wondered for over two years about the implication that may apply should agreement on the protocol and its implementation fail; and whether or not the EU/UK Brexit deal on trade could collapse as nothing will have been agreed, in theory at least, following the negotiating maxim.   In which case UK/EU relations would not be able to be reset.

The UK acceptance of the EU compromise to allow Northern Ireland continued access to its market for goods had also been accepted by the then DUP leader as giving Northern Ireland the best of both worlds. 

In the meantime, to reduce the reliance on using the UK as a landbridge for EU goods in transit to and from Ireland, substantial additional provision for direct EU connections between Irish French and Spanish ports was prioritised.  In addition, the EU extended grace periods to allow the UK time to implement arrangements for checking goods in transit within Northern Ireland.  

Reaction to protocol

Since January 2021 when it started operating, 2 years and 2 months ago, reaction has been both positive and negative.  Without dwelling on distressing scenes of street violence in Belfast in its early days, political criticism of the protocol emerged at the beginning of that year both from the Conservative Party's ERG and from the DUP.   In essence, these contended that it imposes a "border in the Irish Sea," that it separates Northern Ireland from Great Britain, that it involves jurisdiction by the European Court of Justice and that it has had ruinous impacts on Northern Ireland's economy.  

To emphasise their opposition, the DUP suspended Northern Ireland's regional assembly a full year later in early 2022.  Critics of that move query the impact of suspension itself on Northern Ireland's image and its economy.

Most of the running in the debate has been made by advocates of the protocol's threats to trade and sovereignty.  Given the continuing focus of the UK Government on the prospective conclusions of the ERG and DUP to the Windsor Framework, it is important to consider both sides of the case.

Benefits

A range of organisations including business and research bodies have cited statistical data as evidence of benefits accruing to Northern Ireland's economy from its access to the EU market.  The following examples are from 2022.

In May, the apolitical London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported that the trade protocol helps growth and profitability in Northern Ireland because of its advantageous barrier-free exports to the entire 27-nation EU market (5).  NIESR's quarterly report on the UK's economy concluded that Northern Ireland's economic output "has slightly outperformed the UK average."

Agriculture is relatively a more important to the economy in Northern Ireland than it is in Great Britain.  Last June, the head of Northern Ireland's Dairy Council Dr Mike Johnston stated that the protocol is working for his sector allowing trade flows to continue (6).  He added the message - "do not do anything that will in any way interefere with the current working." 

Last July a report from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Dublin presented data on soaring trade for Northern Ireland post-protocol (7).  Its figures indicate that the value of goods from Northern Ireland into the Republic rose by 23% between January and May 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.  The increase was worth £303million bringing the total flow to £1.6billion. 

The CSO figure was higher for goods from the Republic into Northern Ireland with an increase of 42% bringing total trade to a value of £1.8billion. This represents a rise of £497million on the same period in 2021.  The report showed that GB imports into the Republic rose by £1.7billion compared to May 2021, while Irish exports to GB were £1.2billion.

In August, a further CSO report presented January to June 2022 datasets (8).  Imports for that 6-month period from Northern Ireland into the Republic grew from €413million to €2.3billion compared with 2021; and exports to Northern Ireland from the Republic in the same 6-month period in 2022 grew by €662million to €2.4billion when compared with 2021.  These are big numbers indicating substantial economic growth in the Northern Ireland economy.

In terms resonant with the PM Sunak's speech to workers in Lisburn eight months later, the Conservative Brexiteer and founder of Ballymena-based pharmaceuticals company CIGA Healthcare spoke last July about how the protocol could transform Northern Ireland into "the Singapore of Europe. (9)"  Irwin Armstrong's company exports to over 70 countries.  

Since the protocol began, CIGA has been "expanding very rapidly."  Sales to the Republic have doubled; in June he signed a €4.7million contract for new markets in Europe and the Middle East.  Wearing his political hat Mr Armstrong added - " if we get the economic situation in Northern Ireland sorted out people will not vote for a united Ireland if they are being offered a much better deal here."  Could this be a message for the ERG and for the DUP?

In August the American business news channel CNBC dug into the July CSO datasets about the surge in trade by consulting some Northern Ireland business chiefs (10).  Stephen Kelly CEO of Manufacturing NI explained that: "Irish buyers moved away from GB suppliers continuing their trade with the UK by buying from Belfast rather than from Birmingham."  This sounds like Conservative Party free markets philosophy and the market process of import substitution.   

CNBC also quote Ian Chambers, CEO of Chambers Ireland.  He said that there are no ports lying idle, no road idle,"trade is happening and in large numbers."   CNBC reported on the rapid increase since 2021 of cargo ships leaving Dublin and Rosslare ports for France and Spain "to avoid the red tape of crossing through Britain."  The channel also notes benefits for Belfast port whose "operating profits for 2021 rose by 13% to £34million and 25million shipping metric tons of cargo."

A contrasting report from August presents evidence of the detrimental impact of Brexit on GB where trade barriers with Britain's largest trading partner, the EU, now sit on top of constitutional borders. Again this arises from the exit negotiated by the Conservative/DUP partnership.  The National Farmers Union (NFU) reported (11) its concerns about British livestock exports to France ceasing due to no vet checking facilities.  

This is reminiscent of the DUP's argument that the protocol imposes a trade barrier in the Irish Sea between GB and Northern Ireland.  If the DUP apply consistency they could object to Brexit's imposition of trade barriers between the UK and Europe on top of constitutional borders - a double hit of a border superimposed with a trade barrier.

In September Northern Ireland's Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published post-protocol data showing that production by NI food and drinks companies grew by almost 15% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to 2021.  This follows growth of 6.2% between the first and second quarters of 2022 (12).  

Responding to NISRA's figures, the Ulster Bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey argued that the protocol explains the surge as "local firms have experienced increased sales to the Republic at the expense of GB producers.  Since the protocol came into effect in January 2021, food and beverage output by NI manufacturers has increased by 18.3% which is 2.5 times the comparable growth rate among UK firms." 

The NISRA report adds that Northern Ireland's manufacturing output in general was 5.5% above pre-pandemic levels of the final quarter in 2019, whereas the UK's performance showed a 0.1% drop.  This is an important lesson about Brexit's detrimental impact on Britain's economy

Windsor Framework reaction

Speaking in the House of Commons debate about the Framework,  the response of the former PM Johnson attracted top billing.  In trenchant criticism he claimed, among other things, that the Sunak deal would act as a "drag anchor" on post-Brexit freedoms and that he would find it "very difficult" to vote for it. 

Onlookers in Northern Ireland were incredulous that Mr Johnson had criticised improvements to a protocol which he had negotiated and agreed as PM.  And also one which had been roundly denounced by the DUP at the time as the "Betrayal Act" leading them to abandon devolution.

According to the Times (13), "Johnson's intervention galvanised the ERG of Eurosceptic Tory MPs who are awaiting the verdict of their own star-chamber of lawyers into the deal." 

A day or two later, however, the ERG saviour's momentum was dented by a return to the headlines of his Covid19 party wrongdoings.  Johnson and his allies ignored Westminster protocols by questioning the independent Commons privileges committee.  They accused it of "an outrageous level of bias" after finding significant evidence that the former PM may have misled Parliament (14).  Result - Conservative MPs turned against him.  One adopted the Johnson shipping metaphor saying that this distraction "risks undermining Sunak's progress if it turns into a Trumpian drag anchor."

Party interest - community interest

A friend asked how long will it take the DUP to say no.  Perhaps both the ERG and the DUP will vote to accept the Windsor Framework.  Who knows? 

Uncertainty about the DUP's reaction both to the Framework and also to their boycott of devolution remains.  They have set out 7 protocol tests (15).  And like the ERG they are taking legal counsel on the new framework. They have also established an eight-person panel that includes six party members to inform party thinking (16).  The panel's evidential sources and datasets will make interesting reading.

In the meantime, the electorate continues to endure life without its regional Assembly, apprehensive about the prospect of instability caused by a political vacuum; with business and the public concerned about the negative messages of a void for economic development.  

The pathos and irony of suspension are not lost on voters.  It appears that a pro-union party sees no problems with its abrogation of devolution; whereas the largest party at the last regional election, which advocates a policy to end British rule in Ireland, has been urging the DUP to resume power-sharing in Stormont.

Aware of the DUP's priority to keep Northern Ireland integral to the UK and to implement a hard Brexit, one returns to Matthew Parris's advice to PM Sunak.  His comment that they are disliked in Britain reminds us that loyalty works two ways.  And then there is Parris's final comment about the consequence of the DUP playing the wrecking card with its potential to "bring forward the day when a majority will vote to leave the Union altogether."  

At a time when Northern Ireland's constitutional status is protected by the Belfast Agreement signed 25 years ago on Good Friday, is the voice of unionism aware of the law of unintended consequences that could emerge, a la Parris, from strategic miscalculation?

Decision time beckons.  Will the DUP put party interest above public interest; will the national interest be elevated above all else?

 

©Michael McSorley 2023

 References

1. "Brandenburg Gate welcome for King"  Valentine Low Oliver Moody The Times 4 March 2023

2. "Sunak has his best chance to spike Tory crazies" Matthew Parris The Times 25 February 2023

3. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en

4. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en

5"NI economy outperforming UK thanks to Brexit protocol: Experts" S Pogatchnik 11 May 2022 Politico  https://www.politico.eu/article/experts-brexit-protocol-is-boosting-northern-ireland-economy/

6. "NI Dairy Council chief insists protocol is working"  Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 8 June 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/agri/northern-ireland-dairy-council-chief-insists-protocol-is-working/41733987.html

7. "Cross-border trade in Ireland continues to soar 18 months on from NI Protocol introduction" Allan Preston Belfast Telegraph 18 July 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/uk-world/cross-border-trade-in-ireland-continues-to-soar-18-months-on-from-ni-protocol-introduction-new-figures-show/41848136.html

8. "Cross border trade continues to soar in both directions, new figures show" Cate McCurry Irish News 15 August 2022 https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2022/08/15/news/cross-border_trade_continues_to_soar_in_both_directions_new_figures_show-2799179/?param=ds441rif44W

9. "Could protocol make Northern Ireland the Singapore of Europe" Freya McClements Brian Hutton Irish Times 16 July 2022 https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/07/16/could-protocol-make-northern-ireland-the-singapore-of-europe/

10. "There's no port lying idle:Brexit tumult is rapidly changing the face of trade on the island of Ireland" Jonathan Keane CNBC 1 August 2022 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/brexit-tumult-is-radically-reshaping-trade-on-the-island-of-ireland.html

11. "British farmers face paying for border checkpoints in EU after Brexit halts exports" James Tapper The Guardian 6 August 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/british-farmers-face-paying-for-border-checkpoints-in-eu-after-brexit-halts-exports

12. "Protocol arguably behind biggest ever surge in annual output by NI food and drink firms" Margaret Canning Belfast Telegraph 15 September 2022 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/protocol-arguably-behind-biggest-ever-annual-surge-in-output-for-ni-food-and-drink-firms/41992232.html

13. "Sunak calls for unity, then Johnson steps up" Steven Swinford Henry Zeffman Chris Smyth The Times 4 March 2023

14. "He's gone full Trump: Tories turn on Johnson over Partygate" Toby Helm Observer 5 March 2023

15. https://mydup.com/news/dup-leader-announces-seven-tests-for-hmg-plans-on-ni-protocol 15 July 2021

16. "Windsor Framework: former leaders join talks panel" BBC NI News 6 March 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-64860448

 

This series consists of the following 20 articles to date

Brexit 25 July 2016

Global Populism 27 Feb 2017

Brexit 14 Months On 30 August 2017

Our Precious Union 29 August 2018

Arguments for/against Brexit as Parliament debates UK/EU Deal  7 December 2018

Brexit Briefings to DUP MP Jan/Feb 2019 5 March 2019

Brexit lampooned 27 April 2019

How can the UK’s new PM resolve the Brexit conundrum?  23 July 2019

Omnes ad Unum Conservatives and DUP 24 September 2019

Election Communication 8 December 2019

Leaving Britain Undone 31 January 2020

Brexit Trade Deal: What Price Sovereignty? 30 December 2020

Just how good is the UK’s trade deal with the EU?  22 January 2021

Politics failing the people 28 April 2021

Brexit and empty shelves 27 August 2021 

Winning friends and influencing people 15 October 2021

The business of politics 11 May 2022 

An Ode to prudence 28 September 2022

Alarm bells in Westminster 24 October 2022 

The Windsor Framework 7 March 2023